Just when you think you've got this game figured out, along comes Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith and smacks you back down to reality. I'll admit I didn't give him much consideration in the Suburban yesterday at Belmont. He took control of the race from the beginning and just dominated, congratulations to his connections. Today we head back up to Woodbine for a turf affair for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. It's the Grade 2, Dancing Smartly for a purse of $300,000 and there is a field of seven going the mile and an eighth. We've been a bit off since a great start in June, so let's see if a race on the weeds brings us back.
Contenders:
#7 Marketing Mix ML 1/1
I'm not taking the easy way out going with the chalk selection, but when you look at this 4YO filly what can you say? She is coming off a nice win in the Nassau (G2) here on the turf, giving her five of seven on turf. Her speed is consistent, seems to win where ever she goes, and two for two at Woodbine, with two solids results at this distance on turf. Tom Proctor is solid in this situation and with Leparoux having this filly wired, she is going to be hard to beat, regardless of the odds.
#1 Indian Pond ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO has two turf wins to her credit, both at Woodbine. Her last effort, and her 4YO debut was a strong one losing to Marketing Mix by two lengths in the Grade 2, Nassau. She has won at this distance back in October over the synthetic here at Woodbine and has shown a burst of speed since turning four. She will come off the pace with Inglorious and that will be interesting. I look for her to have an even better effort in her second start.
#4 Kissable(IRE) ML 6/1
I have a tendency to play the first time UK/Euro starter on turf, and would have put her first if Marketing Mix hadn't been in the mix. She has acquitted herself well in some big stakes races in Ireland, showed good speed on soft surfaces. Most overseas turf runners respond well to our harder turf, so I can see filly being there at the end. Roger Attfield is a crafty trainer, even though his record with these first time starters is zero for eleven.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
# 2 Inglorious ML 5/2
She will be making her third start on grass today and her second effort against Marketing Mix. Two back she finished second coming five wide, and with the added distance see no reason she can't overhaul her. We know this filly can win big races and Carroll has been working her well. The big angle is the change to Husbands, who wins 24% on grass. If we can get 3/1 or better she would be the play.
Selection:
7 - 1 - 4
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Showing posts with label HANA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HANA. Show all posts
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Stay Thirsty in the Suburban @Belmont
Today we have one of the premiere races at Belmont, the Grade 2, Suburban Handicap. It's for 3 YO's and upward and usually attracts a solid field, and today is no different. There are seven entered, five of them are strong contenders for the purse of $350,000. They will be running over the dirt for a mile and an eighth, there is a good balance of speed and stalkers, so that will make this race come down at the wire. So let's take a look ...
Contenders:
#1 Stay Thirsty ML 7/2
Going out on a limb with him since he has never won at Belmont on four attempts( three of them were on off tracks). However, what I do like is that he usually gives a big performance after his first race off a layoff. He has won at this distance before, been training steadily, and has the class to win this race. We know Pletcher/Castellano are a strong team and his pressing style sets him perfectly for this pace.
#7 To Honor and Serve ML 9/5
Mott certainly has him ready for this race with his third in the Metropolitan at the end of May. His Beyer's are super strong, workouts have been excellent and no doubt likes Belmont, winning two of three. Also, he is three of five at this distance. The only reason I've got him in the place spot is that there is enough speed here to push him and open the door for Stay Thirsty. He has all the tools to win this race, the odds will be miserly, but counting on the pace to work against him.
#4 Hymn Book ML 6/1
He has flattened out in the last two since turning six. However, this gelding enjoys this track and distance, including a win here at this distance. He is also versatile, winning on turf, off tracks and various distances. That is what makes him so dangerous, and he is one of the closer's in this group. If the pace falters, and Stay Thirsty can't hold up, he should fly by. McGaughey puts Garcia back on, and with a 29% stakes win record, Hymn Book is one not to ignore.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#5 Trickmeister ML 6/1
If you toss out the poor effort in the Donn (G1), this five year old is six for six. He has gone wire to wire at this distance and won his first outing at Belmont in May. Granted the company is not to this level, but Dutrow is dangerous with these type of horses. His drills have been steady and he has shown he can fly, and with his bounce back in the last race, he is showing the maturity to take another shot at this level. If he can get better than 6/1 he would be a sweet play.
Selections:
1 - 7 - 4
Contenders:
#1 Stay Thirsty ML 7/2
Going out on a limb with him since he has never won at Belmont on four attempts( three of them were on off tracks). However, what I do like is that he usually gives a big performance after his first race off a layoff. He has won at this distance before, been training steadily, and has the class to win this race. We know Pletcher/Castellano are a strong team and his pressing style sets him perfectly for this pace.
#7 To Honor and Serve ML 9/5
Mott certainly has him ready for this race with his third in the Metropolitan at the end of May. His Beyer's are super strong, workouts have been excellent and no doubt likes Belmont, winning two of three. Also, he is three of five at this distance. The only reason I've got him in the place spot is that there is enough speed here to push him and open the door for Stay Thirsty. He has all the tools to win this race, the odds will be miserly, but counting on the pace to work against him.
#4 Hymn Book ML 6/1
He has flattened out in the last two since turning six. However, this gelding enjoys this track and distance, including a win here at this distance. He is also versatile, winning on turf, off tracks and various distances. That is what makes him so dangerous, and he is one of the closer's in this group. If the pace falters, and Stay Thirsty can't hold up, he should fly by. McGaughey puts Garcia back on, and with a 29% stakes win record, Hymn Book is one not to ignore.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#5 Trickmeister ML 6/1
If you toss out the poor effort in the Donn (G1), this five year old is six for six. He has gone wire to wire at this distance and won his first outing at Belmont in May. Granted the company is not to this level, but Dutrow is dangerous with these type of horses. His drills have been steady and he has shown he can fly, and with his bounce back in the last race, he is showing the maturity to take another shot at this level. If he can get better than 6/1 he would be a sweet play.
Selections:
1 - 7 - 4
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Bed Of Roses at Belmont
We start July off with another sprint, this time up at Belmont for the Bed Of Roses (G3) for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The field of 10 will be going 7 Furlongs for a purse of $150,000. The field is a solid group of sprinters and I've found three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away. So let's see if we can start July like we did June ...
Contenders:
#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5
It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June. Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont). She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs. He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher. Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.
#2 Island Bound ML 7/2
She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90. What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall. Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board. Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands. She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.
#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1
This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to. The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Catinatree ML 10/1
Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx. Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses. Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle. She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it. If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.
Selections:
7 - 2 - 4
Contenders:
#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5
It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June. Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont). She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs. He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher. Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.
#2 Island Bound ML 7/2
She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90. What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall. Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board. Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands. She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.
#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1
This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to. The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Catinatree ML 10/1
Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx. Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses. Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle. She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it. If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.
Selections:
7 - 2 - 4
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Big Day at Charles Town, The Red Legend Sprint
It's not often we get to look at a big purse sprint race like we do today at Charles Town. It's the 5th running of the 7 Furlong, Red Legend for 3YO's and the purse is a staggering $400,000! We have 10 entries, that includes Hansen, but while he may be the big name, he is not a lock by any means. Here we go ...
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Two horse race in the Mother Goose, maybe!
So far this month we have gotten off to a good start, three winners in four races, and one dark horse selection coming through. However, that could end today at Belmont in the Mother Goose (G1). It looks like a two horse race on paper, and will probably be so if you can figure out which one will win it. The Mother Goose is for 3YO fillies going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt track. The purse is for $300,000 and we have a small field of five. With that there will be only three contenders today.
Contenders:
#2 Contested ML 7/5
She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont. Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out. She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire. Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.
#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5
Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer. Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud. She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races. If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.
#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1
It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second. She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies. What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace. If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail. She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.
Selection:
2 - 1 - 3
Contenders:
#2 Contested ML 7/5
She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont. Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out. She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire. Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.
#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5
Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer. Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud. She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races. If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.
#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1
It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second. She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies. What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace. If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail. She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.
Selection:
2 - 1 - 3
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Le Bernadin in Pegasus @Monmouth today
The Stephen Foster set up nicely for Ron the Greek yesterday. Nate's Mineshaft took off and several chased, while the pace wasn't blistering it was enough to put Ron the Greek in great position. Lezcano rode it perfectly by staying to the inside and took care of business when the opportunity opened up. Today, we head over to Monmouth Park for the Grade 3, Pegasus for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on dirt for a purse of $100,000. We have a field of 7 lightly raced 3YO's and due to the shorter field I will have the 3 contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.
Contenders:
#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1
Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades. I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win. Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons. He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time. He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.
#7 Good Morning Diva ML 3/1
He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance. Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth. Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.
#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1
Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race. We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's. Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today. Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1
Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden. Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses. McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.
Selection:
3 - 7 - 5
Contenders:
#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1
Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades. I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win. Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons. He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time. He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.
#7 Good Morning Diva ML 3/1
He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance. Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth. Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.
#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1
Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race. We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's. Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today. Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1
Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden. Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses. McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.
Selection:
3 - 7 - 5
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Loaded field for Foster @ Churchill
In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000. There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race. What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5
This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark). His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace. I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today. The one to beat.
#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1
Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south. He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned. He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win. Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.
#8 Alternation ML 4/1
It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2. The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53! He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.
Dark Horse:
#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1
The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace. He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down. He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside. He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.
Bombs Away:
#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1
He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill. He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.
Selections:
1a - 1 - 8
Contenders:
#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5
This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark). His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace. I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today. The one to beat.
#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1
Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south. He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned. He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win. Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.
#8 Alternation ML 4/1
It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2. The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53! He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.
Dark Horse:
#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1
The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace. He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down. He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside. He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.
Bombs Away:
#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1
He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill. He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.
Selections:
1a - 1 - 8
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Snow Top Mountain in the Mint Julep @ Chruchiill
Today we head down to Churchill Downs and will look at the 36th running of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap. It's a Grade 3 race for fillies and mares 3YO on turf going a mile and sixteenth for a purse of $100,000. Their are nine entered and as of this writing no scratches. There is no real front end speed in this bunch of ladies, most are stalkers or closer's, so it makes this race wide open. When all said and done the mare I keep coming back to is ...
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Wait Til Dawn could surprise in the Selene @Woodbine
The Peter Pan (G2) turned out to be an interesting race yesterday. Right To Vote took off and ran some blistering fractions and didn't quit. Mark Valeski ran his race pressing the pace and then taking control from the outside at the eighth pole to win it. Interestingly, Mark Valeski went off at 6/5 which isn't a bad price considering Teeth of the Dog scratched. I would have thought Mark Valeski would have dropped to even money or worse. What did surprise is how Right To Vote got away at 47/1! He impressed me with his race, showed wow speed and grit deep into the stretch. The early reports are he will be in the Dwyer and I think that distance of a mile and sixteenth will suit him better.
Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000. It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.
Contenders:
#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5
We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly. She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic. Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready. She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.
#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5
Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit. Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair. She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3. We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route? This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.
#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1
She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts. Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous. She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week. Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1
It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing. She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X. This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time. He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win. She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.
Selections:
1 - 2 -3
Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000. It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.
Contenders:
#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5
We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly. She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic. Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready. She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.
#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5
Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit. Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair. She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3. We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route? This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.
#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1
She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts. Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous. She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week. Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1
It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing. She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X. This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time. He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win. She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.
Selections:
1 - 2 -3
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Mark Valeski in the Peter Pan
Today at Belmont, we have the Peter Pan (G2) for 3YO going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $200,000. Their are 11 going forward and it's a race loaded with speed. There are a lot of colt's here to like, all lightly raced and most are multiple winners. The other two challenges with this group is most have never gone this distance, and how much upside do they still possess? That makes it anyone's race. It's a solid group and actually I like them more than the Derby entrants. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#5 Mark Veleski ML 5/2
I chose him to win the Risen Star (G2) and looked like he had it until El Padrino chased him down. He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2) almost winning it. It's hard to ignore him when he has shown he can go this distance, has been working out well and of course, Larry Jones. Jones has a 33% winning record in Graded Stakes and 43% with Rosie Napravnik. I also like that he has won twice off layoffs. He is no lock but going with the trainer/distance angle.
#10 Teeth of the Dog ML 6/1
He is the only one to win at this distance in his maiden win and then returns to give a tough show performance in the Wood Memorial (G1). In each of his four races his Beyer's have improved and could really move up today. Michael Matz is tough in these situations, and Bravo has this colt wired. The only question is does he chase the speed or rate off? Coming from the outside will be a real test for him.
#2 The Lumber Guy ML 7/2
He is three for four, coming off winning the Jerome (G2) at a mile. His only off race at this distance in the Wood Memorial, running wide and then tiring. There are two angles here on this colt, one is Hushion is stellar with winners coming back, dirt route races (30+% winners) and a 20% hit rate in graded stakes. The other is that he has won all three races coming out of the inside gates, the Wood he was in the 8 hole and ran three wide. With him coming out at #2 and his speed of 96 he could get loose on this field.
Dark Horse:
#9 Master Rick ML 10/1
He woke up when Asmussen took over winning two in a row at Oaklawn Park. His last race was a stakes race with an eye popping 99 Beyer going a mile. He is another one with the early speed and has shown he can carry it. We all know Asmussen and Nakatani are dangerous in these spots and today is no different. You have to like the step up in class on the improve and stretching out. The outside post could be a hindrance for him with all this speed, but Nakatani is crafty in these spots
#6 Good Morning Diva ML 12/1
This is a simple Mark Cramer angle here. Shipping in from Florida, new trainer in Tim Hills, jockey switch to Leparoux and stretching out in distance. He won the Calder Derby in his first route and posted a solid Beyer. He likes to press the pace which might work out well with the speed today. The only knock is he might be a foul weather horse, both wins on an off track.
Bombs Away:
#1 Right to Vote ML 20/1
Here is another speedster stretching out today. He shows to be a bouncer on his speed figures, but I do like how he showed himself in the Champagne against Union Rags and Alpha as a 2YO. Harty sets him up nicely by taking a OC$100K first time as a 3YO and brings him back to Belmont where he won his maiden. Kind of a horse for course angle today and will need a big jump in effort to run with this crew. His pedigree says he can get it done.
Selections:
5 - 10 - 2
Contenders:
#5 Mark Veleski ML 5/2
I chose him to win the Risen Star (G2) and looked like he had it until El Padrino chased him down. He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2) almost winning it. It's hard to ignore him when he has shown he can go this distance, has been working out well and of course, Larry Jones. Jones has a 33% winning record in Graded Stakes and 43% with Rosie Napravnik. I also like that he has won twice off layoffs. He is no lock but going with the trainer/distance angle.
#10 Teeth of the Dog ML 6/1
He is the only one to win at this distance in his maiden win and then returns to give a tough show performance in the Wood Memorial (G1). In each of his four races his Beyer's have improved and could really move up today. Michael Matz is tough in these situations, and Bravo has this colt wired. The only question is does he chase the speed or rate off? Coming from the outside will be a real test for him.
#2 The Lumber Guy ML 7/2
He is three for four, coming off winning the Jerome (G2) at a mile. His only off race at this distance in the Wood Memorial, running wide and then tiring. There are two angles here on this colt, one is Hushion is stellar with winners coming back, dirt route races (30+% winners) and a 20% hit rate in graded stakes. The other is that he has won all three races coming out of the inside gates, the Wood he was in the 8 hole and ran three wide. With him coming out at #2 and his speed of 96 he could get loose on this field.
Dark Horse:
#9 Master Rick ML 10/1
He woke up when Asmussen took over winning two in a row at Oaklawn Park. His last race was a stakes race with an eye popping 99 Beyer going a mile. He is another one with the early speed and has shown he can carry it. We all know Asmussen and Nakatani are dangerous in these spots and today is no different. You have to like the step up in class on the improve and stretching out. The outside post could be a hindrance for him with all this speed, but Nakatani is crafty in these spots
#6 Good Morning Diva ML 12/1
This is a simple Mark Cramer angle here. Shipping in from Florida, new trainer in Tim Hills, jockey switch to Leparoux and stretching out in distance. He won the Calder Derby in his first route and posted a solid Beyer. He likes to press the pace which might work out well with the speed today. The only knock is he might be a foul weather horse, both wins on an off track.
Bombs Away:
#1 Right to Vote ML 20/1
Here is another speedster stretching out today. He shows to be a bouncer on his speed figures, but I do like how he showed himself in the Champagne against Union Rags and Alpha as a 2YO. Harty sets him up nicely by taking a OC$100K first time as a 3YO and brings him back to Belmont where he won his maiden. Kind of a horse for course angle today and will need a big jump in effort to run with this crew. His pedigree says he can get it done.
Selections:
5 - 10 - 2
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Paso Doble dances through the Vigil at Woodbine
The wonderful story from yesterday's Derby was not only Doug O'Neill getting his first Derby win, but for Mario Gutierrez showing all the jockey's out there that with hard work and a good agent you can make it out of the small tracks (Hastings) and hit the big time. He rode the perfect race yesterday, getting I'll Have Another in the right place off the pace, clear of trouble and then laid into the third lane and ran down an impressive Bodemeister. Regardless what happens in two weeks at Pimlico, Mario's future looks bright!
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Derby Day for Gemologist
The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby. In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner. Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen. So let’s dive in ….
Contenders:
#15 Gemologist ML 6/1
He is five for five and seems to get better in every race. Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance. His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants. Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him. You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.
#14 Hansen ML 10/1
When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question. He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him. But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets. Michael Maker has him primed and ready.
#4 Union Rags ML 9/2
After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three. What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back. His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance. The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside. Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.
Dark Horse:
#11 Alpha ML 15/1
Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today. The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh. Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load? If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch.
#5 Dullahan ML 8/1
Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race. Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth. He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush. He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.
Bombs Away:
#2 Optimizer ML 50/1
I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga. Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential. Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous. His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him. If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them. When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done. If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.
Selections: 15 - 14 - 4
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine
Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury. It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is $150,000. There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches. Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such. She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today. So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)
Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont. It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000. There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group. Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners. Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today
Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago. At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth. It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Menlo Castle in the Woodstock @Woodbine
What can we say about Caixa Eletronica, our darkhorse selection for the Charles Town Classic. It wasa great race for him and Pletcher prepped him perfectly for it. I tip my hat to Duke of Mischief, I didn't think he would hold his own against this field and proved me wrong! Today we head over to Woodbine and will look at the 114th running of the Woodstock for 3YO going 6 panels for $150,000 purse. This will be interesting race for seven of the nine entries are making their 3YO debut, so that means big improvements and a price horse could surprise us.
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Tackleberry in the Charles Town Classic
It's not often we get a big race out of Charles Town. So today with a $1,000,000 on the line we will take a look at the 12th Race, the 4th running of the Charles Town Classic (G2). There is a field of 13 as of this writing and they will be going a mile and an eighth over the dirt course. What makes this race interesting is that all are shipping in, in fact, I think only three of them have ever raced at Charles Town and none more than once. So we can toss out the horse for course angle, and with this big of a field we have to find the one's that can get out in front to avoid trouble. I will make a note here that #7 Duke of Mischief ML 10/1, returns to defend his crown, winning this race last year over a sloppy track. He won't be in my mix but wanted to reference his being in here. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream
Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win. I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder. Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000. It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: A Hardened Wildcat in the Bayshore(G3)
We had a nice double last weekend. Hit It Rich won the Orchid on Saturday, followed by Nate's Mineshaft taking the New Orleans Handicap. Both paid handsome returns, Hit It Rich paid $7.40 and Nate's Mineshaft returned $20.80! Now if we could do that every weekend, right? Today, we are at Aqueduct and going to look at a sprint race for 3YO's. It's the Bayshore Handicap (G3) going 7 furlongs for a purse of $250,000. We have eight entered and several of them like to get on top quick, so don't be surprised to see a wire to wire finish in this one.
Contenders:
#6 Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1
This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand. His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.
#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1
I can't let this race be completely chalk! He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt. He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win. The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.
#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5
His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut. Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins. The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce". Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid. I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.
Dark Horse:
#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1
This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off. The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins. He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.
#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1
This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them. As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him. The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out. He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce. Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start. Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.
Bombs Away:
#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1
Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire. He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons. There is something about Cory at a price in features. This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.
Selections:
6 - 5 - 1
I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday. http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Contenders:
#6 Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1
This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand. His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.
#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1
I can't let this race be completely chalk! He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt. He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win. The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.
#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5
His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut. Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins. The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce". Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid. I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.
Dark Horse:
#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1
This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off. The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins. He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.
#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1
This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them. As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him. The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out. He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce. Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start. Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.
Bombs Away:
#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1
Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire. He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons. There is something about Cory at a price in features. This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.
Selections:
6 - 5 - 1
I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday. http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Nates Mineshaft for Nawlins Handicap at FG
I skipped the Florida Derby to look at the Orchid, and Hit It Rich got it done. She held her morning line at 3/1 and paid a nice $7.20 for her effort. I was also pleased to Aqsaam do well, holding place to a hard charging Keertana. It was a thrilling race! Today, we are going to the Fair Grounds, and will ignore the Louisiana Derby fora really difficult race, the New Orleans Handicap(G2). It's for 4YO+ going a mile and an eighth over the main course. The nine entrants are gunning for a $400,000 purse, and we see a lot of familiar faces. Right off the bat, I see six of them winning this race, it's that contentious. I'm going to write this one up differently, going to list my three contenders, then the next three possibles.
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
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