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Sunday, April 29, 2012

Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine

Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury.  It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is  $150,000.  There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches.  Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such.  She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today.  So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...

Contenders:

#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2

She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei.  I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today.  If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly.  She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.

#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1

She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94!  She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.

#4 Dene Court ML 2/1

Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit.  She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second.  She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden.  Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good.  Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help.  She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.

Dark Horse:

#8  Rose and Shine ML 8/1

Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth.  It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead.  I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots.  She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away.  I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.

Bombs Away:

#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1

She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking.  In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally.  Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing.  She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace.  Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board.  It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.

Selections:

7 - 1 - 4

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