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Sunday, July 8, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Marketing Mix ready to take Dancing Smart today @Woodbine

Just when you think you've got this game figured out, along comes Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith and smacks you back down to reality.  I'll admit I didn't give him much consideration in the Suburban yesterday at Belmont.  He took control of the race from the beginning and just dominated, congratulations to his connections. Today we head back up to Woodbine for a turf affair for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. It's the Grade 2, Dancing Smartly for a purse of $300,000 and there is a field of seven going the mile and an eighth.  We've been a bit off since a great start in June, so let's see if a race on the weeds brings us back.

Contenders:

#7 Marketing Mix ML 1/1

I'm not taking the easy way out going with the chalk selection, but when you look at this 4YO filly what can you say? She is coming off a nice win in the Nassau (G2) here on the turf, giving her five of seven on turf.  Her speed is consistent, seems to win where ever she goes, and two for two at Woodbine, with two solids results at this distance on turf.  Tom Proctor is solid in this situation and with Leparoux having this filly wired, she is going to be hard to beat, regardless of the odds.

#1 Indian Pond ML 4/1

This lightly raced 4YO has two turf wins to her credit, both at Woodbine.  Her last effort, and her 4YO debut was a strong one losing to Marketing Mix by two lengths in the Grade 2, Nassau.  She has won at this distance back in October over the synthetic here at Woodbine and has shown a burst of speed since turning four.  She will come off the pace with Inglorious and that will be interesting.  I look for her to have an even better effort in her second start.

#4 Kissable(IRE) ML 6/1

I have a tendency to play the first time UK/Euro starter on turf, and would have put her first if Marketing Mix hadn't been in the mix.  She has acquitted herself well in some big stakes races in Ireland, showed good speed on soft surfaces.  Most overseas turf runners respond well to our harder turf, so I can see filly being there at the end.  Roger Attfield is a crafty trainer, even though his record with these first time starters is  zero for eleven.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

 # 2 Inglorious ML 5/2

She will be making her third start on grass today and her second effort against Marketing Mix.  Two back she finished second coming five wide, and with the added distance see no reason she can't overhaul her. We know this filly can win big races and Carroll has been working her well.  The big angle is the change to Husbands, who wins 24% on grass.  If we can get 3/1 or better she would be the play.

Selection:

7 - 1 - 4

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