We start July off with another sprint, this time up at Belmont for the Bed Of Roses (G3) for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The field of 10 will be going 7 Furlongs for a purse of $150,000. The field is a solid group of sprinters and I've found three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away. So let's see if we can start July like we did June ...
Contenders:
#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5
It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June. Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont). She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs. He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher. Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.
#2 Island Bound ML 7/2
She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90. What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall. Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board. Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands. She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.
#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1
This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to. The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Catinatree ML 10/1
Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx. Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses. Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle. She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it. If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.
Selections:
7 - 2 - 4
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Showing posts with label sprints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sprints. Show all posts
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Big Day at Charles Town, The Red Legend Sprint
It's not often we get to look at a big purse sprint race like we do today at Charles Town. It's the 5th running of the 7 Furlong, Red Legend for 3YO's and the purse is a staggering $400,000! We have 10 entries, that includes Hansen, but while he may be the big name, he is not a lock by any means. Here we go ...
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Paso Doble dances through the Vigil at Woodbine
The wonderful story from yesterday's Derby was not only Doug O'Neill getting his first Derby win, but for Mario Gutierrez showing all the jockey's out there that with hard work and a good agent you can make it out of the small tracks (Hastings) and hit the big time. He rode the perfect race yesterday, getting I'll Have Another in the right place off the pace, clear of trouble and then laid into the third lane and ran down an impressive Bodemeister. Regardless what happens in two weeks at Pimlico, Mario's future looks bright!
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine
Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury. It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is $150,000. There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches. Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such. She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today. So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
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