In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000. There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race. What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5
This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark). His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace. I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today. The one to beat.
#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1
Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south. He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned. He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win. Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.
#8 Alternation ML 4/1
It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2. The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53! He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.
Dark Horse:
#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1
The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace. He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down. He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside. He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.
Bombs Away:
#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1
He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill. He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.
Selections:
1a - 1 - 8
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Showing posts with label Handicapping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Handicapping. Show all posts
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Dixie Strike in the Woodbine Oaks
Today we head north to Woodbine for the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. It's for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the synthetic surface. Like yesterday in the Mint Julep, there is no real front end speed in this field of nine. In fact, what makes this a difficult race to handicap is that none of the ladies has gone this distance before. In doing the analysis I found three contenders but no dark horse, and of course the long shot play. So here goes ...
Contenders:
#6 Dixie Strike ML 6/5
She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router. Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive. She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners. The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her. It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.
#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season. The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races. Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons. Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late. She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.
#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2
The second of three Mark Casse entries. She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second. Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady. The issue is can she go two turns with this group? Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race. She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.
Bombs Away:
#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1
Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races. This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one. Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's. If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.
Selections:
6 - 7 - 4
Contenders:
#6 Dixie Strike ML 6/5
She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router. Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive. She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners. The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her. It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.
#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season. The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races. Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons. Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late. She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.
#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2
The second of three Mark Casse entries. She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second. Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady. The issue is can she go two turns with this group? Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race. She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.
Bombs Away:
#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1
Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races. This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one. Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's. If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.
Selections:
6 - 7 - 4
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Mark Valeski in the Peter Pan
Today at Belmont, we have the Peter Pan (G2) for 3YO going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $200,000. Their are 11 going forward and it's a race loaded with speed. There are a lot of colt's here to like, all lightly raced and most are multiple winners. The other two challenges with this group is most have never gone this distance, and how much upside do they still possess? That makes it anyone's race. It's a solid group and actually I like them more than the Derby entrants. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#5 Mark Veleski ML 5/2
I chose him to win the Risen Star (G2) and looked like he had it until El Padrino chased him down. He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2) almost winning it. It's hard to ignore him when he has shown he can go this distance, has been working out well and of course, Larry Jones. Jones has a 33% winning record in Graded Stakes and 43% with Rosie Napravnik. I also like that he has won twice off layoffs. He is no lock but going with the trainer/distance angle.
#10 Teeth of the Dog ML 6/1
He is the only one to win at this distance in his maiden win and then returns to give a tough show performance in the Wood Memorial (G1). In each of his four races his Beyer's have improved and could really move up today. Michael Matz is tough in these situations, and Bravo has this colt wired. The only question is does he chase the speed or rate off? Coming from the outside will be a real test for him.
#2 The Lumber Guy ML 7/2
He is three for four, coming off winning the Jerome (G2) at a mile. His only off race at this distance in the Wood Memorial, running wide and then tiring. There are two angles here on this colt, one is Hushion is stellar with winners coming back, dirt route races (30+% winners) and a 20% hit rate in graded stakes. The other is that he has won all three races coming out of the inside gates, the Wood he was in the 8 hole and ran three wide. With him coming out at #2 and his speed of 96 he could get loose on this field.
Dark Horse:
#9 Master Rick ML 10/1
He woke up when Asmussen took over winning two in a row at Oaklawn Park. His last race was a stakes race with an eye popping 99 Beyer going a mile. He is another one with the early speed and has shown he can carry it. We all know Asmussen and Nakatani are dangerous in these spots and today is no different. You have to like the step up in class on the improve and stretching out. The outside post could be a hindrance for him with all this speed, but Nakatani is crafty in these spots
#6 Good Morning Diva ML 12/1
This is a simple Mark Cramer angle here. Shipping in from Florida, new trainer in Tim Hills, jockey switch to Leparoux and stretching out in distance. He won the Calder Derby in his first route and posted a solid Beyer. He likes to press the pace which might work out well with the speed today. The only knock is he might be a foul weather horse, both wins on an off track.
Bombs Away:
#1 Right to Vote ML 20/1
Here is another speedster stretching out today. He shows to be a bouncer on his speed figures, but I do like how he showed himself in the Champagne against Union Rags and Alpha as a 2YO. Harty sets him up nicely by taking a OC$100K first time as a 3YO and brings him back to Belmont where he won his maiden. Kind of a horse for course angle today and will need a big jump in effort to run with this crew. His pedigree says he can get it done.
Selections:
5 - 10 - 2
Contenders:
#5 Mark Veleski ML 5/2
I chose him to win the Risen Star (G2) and looked like he had it until El Padrino chased him down. He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2) almost winning it. It's hard to ignore him when he has shown he can go this distance, has been working out well and of course, Larry Jones. Jones has a 33% winning record in Graded Stakes and 43% with Rosie Napravnik. I also like that he has won twice off layoffs. He is no lock but going with the trainer/distance angle.
#10 Teeth of the Dog ML 6/1
He is the only one to win at this distance in his maiden win and then returns to give a tough show performance in the Wood Memorial (G1). In each of his four races his Beyer's have improved and could really move up today. Michael Matz is tough in these situations, and Bravo has this colt wired. The only question is does he chase the speed or rate off? Coming from the outside will be a real test for him.
#2 The Lumber Guy ML 7/2
He is three for four, coming off winning the Jerome (G2) at a mile. His only off race at this distance in the Wood Memorial, running wide and then tiring. There are two angles here on this colt, one is Hushion is stellar with winners coming back, dirt route races (30+% winners) and a 20% hit rate in graded stakes. The other is that he has won all three races coming out of the inside gates, the Wood he was in the 8 hole and ran three wide. With him coming out at #2 and his speed of 96 he could get loose on this field.
Dark Horse:
#9 Master Rick ML 10/1
He woke up when Asmussen took over winning two in a row at Oaklawn Park. His last race was a stakes race with an eye popping 99 Beyer going a mile. He is another one with the early speed and has shown he can carry it. We all know Asmussen and Nakatani are dangerous in these spots and today is no different. You have to like the step up in class on the improve and stretching out. The outside post could be a hindrance for him with all this speed, but Nakatani is crafty in these spots
#6 Good Morning Diva ML 12/1
This is a simple Mark Cramer angle here. Shipping in from Florida, new trainer in Tim Hills, jockey switch to Leparoux and stretching out in distance. He won the Calder Derby in his first route and posted a solid Beyer. He likes to press the pace which might work out well with the speed today. The only knock is he might be a foul weather horse, both wins on an off track.
Bombs Away:
#1 Right to Vote ML 20/1
Here is another speedster stretching out today. He shows to be a bouncer on his speed figures, but I do like how he showed himself in the Champagne against Union Rags and Alpha as a 2YO. Harty sets him up nicely by taking a OC$100K first time as a 3YO and brings him back to Belmont where he won his maiden. Kind of a horse for course angle today and will need a big jump in effort to run with this crew. His pedigree says he can get it done.
Selections:
5 - 10 - 2
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Paso Doble dances through the Vigil at Woodbine
The wonderful story from yesterday's Derby was not only Doug O'Neill getting his first Derby win, but for Mario Gutierrez showing all the jockey's out there that with hard work and a good agent you can make it out of the small tracks (Hastings) and hit the big time. He rode the perfect race yesterday, getting I'll Have Another in the right place off the pace, clear of trouble and then laid into the third lane and ran down an impressive Bodemeister. Regardless what happens in two weeks at Pimlico, Mario's future looks bright!
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface. A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season. It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff, that makes it interesting.
Contenders:
#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2
This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K). His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern. His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event. The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.
#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5
He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it. His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable. If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one. He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.
#7 Signature Red ML 6/1
He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race. Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander). He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race. Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well. The big issue does he break cleanly? His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.
Dark Horse:
# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall. His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96. Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company. His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons. I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort. He is my money pick today.
Bombs Away:
# Something Extra ML 12/1
This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race. He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one. His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation. I would think that improvement would continue today. Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.
Selections:
2 - 5 - 7
Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog: http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Derby Day for Gemologist
The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby. In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner. Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen. So let’s dive in ….
Contenders:
#15 Gemologist ML 6/1
He is five for five and seems to get better in every race. Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance. His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants. Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him. You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.
#14 Hansen ML 10/1
When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question. He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him. But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets. Michael Maker has him primed and ready.
#4 Union Rags ML 9/2
After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three. What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back. His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance. The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside. Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.
Dark Horse:
#11 Alpha ML 15/1
Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today. The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh. Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load? If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch.
#5 Dullahan ML 8/1
Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race. Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth. He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush. He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.
Bombs Away:
#2 Optimizer ML 50/1
I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga. Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential. Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous. His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him. If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them. When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done. If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.
Selections: 15 - 14 - 4
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine
Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury. It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is $150,000. There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches. Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such. She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today. So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)
Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont. It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000. There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group. Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners. Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today
Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago. At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth. It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
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Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Menlo Castle in the Woodstock @Woodbine
What can we say about Caixa Eletronica, our darkhorse selection for the Charles Town Classic. It wasa great race for him and Pletcher prepped him perfectly for it. I tip my hat to Duke of Mischief, I didn't think he would hold his own against this field and proved me wrong! Today we head over to Woodbine and will look at the 114th running of the Woodstock for 3YO going 6 panels for $150,000 purse. This will be interesting race for seven of the nine entries are making their 3YO debut, so that means big improvements and a price horse could surprise us.
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Tackleberry in the Charles Town Classic
It's not often we get a big race out of Charles Town. So today with a $1,000,000 on the line we will take a look at the 12th Race, the 4th running of the Charles Town Classic (G2). There is a field of 13 as of this writing and they will be going a mile and an eighth over the dirt course. What makes this race interesting is that all are shipping in, in fact, I think only three of them have ever raced at Charles Town and none more than once. So we can toss out the horse for course angle, and with this big of a field we have to find the one's that can get out in front to avoid trouble. I will make a note here that #7 Duke of Mischief ML 10/1, returns to defend his crown, winning this race last year over a sloppy track. He won't be in my mix but wanted to reference his being in here. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Nates Mineshaft for Nawlins Handicap at FG
I skipped the Florida Derby to look at the Orchid, and Hit It Rich got it done. She held her morning line at 3/1 and paid a nice $7.20 for her effort. I was also pleased to Aqsaam do well, holding place to a hard charging Keertana. It was a thrilling race! Today, we are going to the Fair Grounds, and will ignore the Louisiana Derby fora really difficult race, the New Orleans Handicap(G2). It's for 4YO+ going a mile and an eighth over the main course. The nine entrants are gunning for a $400,000 purse, and we see a lot of familiar faces. Right off the bat, I see six of them winning this race, it's that contentious. I'm going to write this one up differently, going to list my three contenders, then the next three possibles.
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Hit It Rich in the Orchid at GP Today
I thought we would go in a different direction today, and not look at the Florida Derby. It's going to be an interesting race no doubt, is Union Rags on track for the Derby? and how good is El Padrino off the Risen Star? But instead of trading punches on that race, there is another race on the card that I think is loaded with contention, and will be exciting.
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Handsome Mike in the Spiral at Turfway Today
Today we get another Derby contender race. There aren't many more opportunities for 3YO to get into the big one. I believe I read connections will need about $250,000 to make the eligible list, this race at Turfway Park will do that for the winner. We will take a look at the Sprial (G3) going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $500,000, again for 3YO. A big field 12 are going, and as of this writing no scratches.
Contenders:
#12 Handsome Mike ML 4/1
He won't be the favorite and not even sure he will be second in line, but I like this Doug O'Neill trained colt. It would appear that his best results have been on turf, winning his maiden and then a place finish in a G3. O'Neill took over at the end of his 2YO campaign and it looks like he is finding his footing. His Beyer's are consistent (86 - 88 - 87) and he has held his own against some tough 3YO, Secret Circle and Liaison. You have to like that Rosario is now on board, and with O'Neill that has been a 22% win record. If he runs anywhere near those Beyer's today, he should hold off this group. The only downside is the post, he likes to race up close, and it might be tough to get there early.
#7 Ill Conceived ML 8/1
This will our horse for course selection. I liked him in the Battaglia and he ran a strong place finish with a 83 Beyer. I know many discount him because he races a mid level tracks, but he is a tough knocker, and in these races they can find a way to win. The added distance will help, his running style fits the group, and Elliott now has one under his belt with him. He could make it interesting.
#3 Heavy Breathing ML 3/1
It wouldn't be a Derby hopeful race without a Pletcher entry. He is the morning line favorite and will probably go off as the favorite when the gates open. He has has two impressive wins at GP, and is making the normal progression for a Pletcher horse. Back to back 79's are solid and would expect an improvement today on his third start. Distance is no issue and likes to go forward. The key is how does he handle some of the more experienced 3YO's today? It will be a good test for him, and he certainly has the ability to win it.
Dark Horse:
#4 Went the Day ML 4/1
This will be his first outing since winning his maiden at GP. This is more of a trainer angle than anything else. When Graham Motion drops a horse in a Graded race off a maiden win, the intentions are not a prep race. He has shown he has the speed to run this distance and they are bringing him right back of that win. Velazquez is on board which is a plus, even though JohnnyV has been a bit off of late, maybe a change in scenery will be good. Not calling him a dangerous one, but if he stays off the pace a bit he might get his chance.
#11 Stealcase ML 10/1
Here is the dangerous 3YO. Took him a few tries before breaking his maiden, then Mark Casse drops him in the Gotham(G3) and runs into Hansen, and didn't break cleanly. The connections must be encouraged because he is right back running again. Blinkers on which is a fun angle, Casse has an excellent record these situations, and he changes up and puts Maragh on board. It would not surprise me to see him in the hunt at the end.
Bombs Away:
#10 Mr. Prankster ML 12/1
I'm a big Michael Maker fan, and to get one of his entries at 12/1 makes your mouth water. Here is another horse for course opportunity, he has won two of three over the TP synthetic. Has shown flashes of speed to compete at this level, and looks like he bounces well off those off tough races. Maker hits 28% on Synthetic and the kicker is he puts on red hot Rosie Napravnik. She'll lay him in the weeds and if the big guns beat each other up, he will be there for all the marbles.
Selections:
12 - 7 - 3
Contenders:
#12 Handsome Mike ML 4/1
He won't be the favorite and not even sure he will be second in line, but I like this Doug O'Neill trained colt. It would appear that his best results have been on turf, winning his maiden and then a place finish in a G3. O'Neill took over at the end of his 2YO campaign and it looks like he is finding his footing. His Beyer's are consistent (86 - 88 - 87) and he has held his own against some tough 3YO, Secret Circle and Liaison. You have to like that Rosario is now on board, and with O'Neill that has been a 22% win record. If he runs anywhere near those Beyer's today, he should hold off this group. The only downside is the post, he likes to race up close, and it might be tough to get there early.
#7 Ill Conceived ML 8/1
This will our horse for course selection. I liked him in the Battaglia and he ran a strong place finish with a 83 Beyer. I know many discount him because he races a mid level tracks, but he is a tough knocker, and in these races they can find a way to win. The added distance will help, his running style fits the group, and Elliott now has one under his belt with him. He could make it interesting.
#3 Heavy Breathing ML 3/1
It wouldn't be a Derby hopeful race without a Pletcher entry. He is the morning line favorite and will probably go off as the favorite when the gates open. He has has two impressive wins at GP, and is making the normal progression for a Pletcher horse. Back to back 79's are solid and would expect an improvement today on his third start. Distance is no issue and likes to go forward. The key is how does he handle some of the more experienced 3YO's today? It will be a good test for him, and he certainly has the ability to win it.
Dark Horse:
#4 Went the Day ML 4/1
This will be his first outing since winning his maiden at GP. This is more of a trainer angle than anything else. When Graham Motion drops a horse in a Graded race off a maiden win, the intentions are not a prep race. He has shown he has the speed to run this distance and they are bringing him right back of that win. Velazquez is on board which is a plus, even though JohnnyV has been a bit off of late, maybe a change in scenery will be good. Not calling him a dangerous one, but if he stays off the pace a bit he might get his chance.
#11 Stealcase ML 10/1
Here is the dangerous 3YO. Took him a few tries before breaking his maiden, then Mark Casse drops him in the Gotham(G3) and runs into Hansen, and didn't break cleanly. The connections must be encouraged because he is right back running again. Blinkers on which is a fun angle, Casse has an excellent record these situations, and he changes up and puts Maragh on board. It would not surprise me to see him in the hunt at the end.
Bombs Away:
#10 Mr. Prankster ML 12/1
I'm a big Michael Maker fan, and to get one of his entries at 12/1 makes your mouth water. Here is another horse for course opportunity, he has won two of three over the TP synthetic. Has shown flashes of speed to compete at this level, and looks like he bounces well off those off tough races. Maker hits 28% on Synthetic and the kicker is he puts on red hot Rosie Napravnik. She'll lay him in the weeds and if the big guns beat each other up, he will be there for all the marbles.
Selections:
12 - 7 - 3
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Romacaca looks like a Honey Fox @GP Today
Yesterday in the Rebel, I was happy to see the great performance by Optimizer. I remember when he broke his maiden at Saratoga and thought this horse was going to be something. He certainly has struggled, but yesterday he put on a great finish for place. He might not be a Derby contender, but he his going to be a solid 3YO.
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The three S's in the Rebel Stakes
Today at Oaklawn we have the next big race for 3YO's gunning for Derby contention. A field of 11 hopefuls have entered this mile and a sixteenth affair, and they will be shooting for a piece of that $500,000 purse. So lets get started ...
Contenders:
# 8 Secret Circle ML 9/5
No real surprise here, he should be the favorite. Five starts with four wins, with a solid performance in the Southwest (G3), popping a 102 Beyer. His workouts have been excellent, he can handle the distance and it looks like Baffert has him set up perfectly. If I have to find a weakness is that he might be vulnerable with the added distance. Both mile races were duel's at the end, and with some tough closer's and decent pace he might get nailed at the wire.
#7 Sabercat ML 5/1
This 3YO could be the big surprise today. He has won three in a row, that last one a G3 event at Delta Downs. His Beyer figures while not at the level of Secret Circle or Scatman, have been improving, and he could be ready for a big jump. He has shown he can win at this distance, and Asmussen does well with horses coming off the bench (21% wins). I also like that he has a versatile running style and has won with three different jockeys. Today, Nakatani is in the irons, and when he rides for Asmussen he seems to really shine.
#3 Scatman ML 8/1
Had a big race in the Southwest (G3) and almost held off Secret Circle. He made a big jump from a 87 to 101 Beyer. He likes to go to the front and see nothing different this time out, the only challenge for him is the added distance. He flashed a good workout on the 10th, so fitness is not a concern, but I'm not so sure he can run away from this group, and in the end will get caught short.
Dark Horses:
#11 Najjaar ML 6/1
Back to back wins at this distance over the course and improving speed figures. This will be a big step up for him, but Dan Peitz is a solid trainer in these situations. Borel stays on and if you like closer's then this 3YO is for you. If the front end gets hairy and it could with those top three, he could slip through, and Borel is a money rider in these spots.
#12 Adirondack King ML 6/1
Took on his first route in the Southwest (G3) and finished third to Secret Circle and Scatman, had to come six wide and still posted a good 91 Beyer. A lot of folks believe he can upset this group, but not so sure the distance will work in his favor. He likes to come off the pace, and it looks like the top three will take off, he is dangerous, but hot seeing him catching them at the wire.
Bombs Away:
#2 Unbridled's Note ML 20/1
Won his maiden on first calling, then got beat up in the Southwest (G3). On the replay, it was just ugly, back break, traffic and then it was over. He is making his third start for Asmussen and I like that Hill is on board. His breeding say he can handle the distance, he got some good experience last out and and you can use the key race angle to a degree. We don't know how good he is, and that makes him dangerous.
Selections:
8 - 7 - 3
Contenders:
# 8 Secret Circle ML 9/5
No real surprise here, he should be the favorite. Five starts with four wins, with a solid performance in the Southwest (G3), popping a 102 Beyer. His workouts have been excellent, he can handle the distance and it looks like Baffert has him set up perfectly. If I have to find a weakness is that he might be vulnerable with the added distance. Both mile races were duel's at the end, and with some tough closer's and decent pace he might get nailed at the wire.
#7 Sabercat ML 5/1
This 3YO could be the big surprise today. He has won three in a row, that last one a G3 event at Delta Downs. His Beyer figures while not at the level of Secret Circle or Scatman, have been improving, and he could be ready for a big jump. He has shown he can win at this distance, and Asmussen does well with horses coming off the bench (21% wins). I also like that he has a versatile running style and has won with three different jockeys. Today, Nakatani is in the irons, and when he rides for Asmussen he seems to really shine.
#3 Scatman ML 8/1
Had a big race in the Southwest (G3) and almost held off Secret Circle. He made a big jump from a 87 to 101 Beyer. He likes to go to the front and see nothing different this time out, the only challenge for him is the added distance. He flashed a good workout on the 10th, so fitness is not a concern, but I'm not so sure he can run away from this group, and in the end will get caught short.
Dark Horses:
#11 Najjaar ML 6/1
Back to back wins at this distance over the course and improving speed figures. This will be a big step up for him, but Dan Peitz is a solid trainer in these situations. Borel stays on and if you like closer's then this 3YO is for you. If the front end gets hairy and it could with those top three, he could slip through, and Borel is a money rider in these spots.
#12 Adirondack King ML 6/1
Took on his first route in the Southwest (G3) and finished third to Secret Circle and Scatman, had to come six wide and still posted a good 91 Beyer. A lot of folks believe he can upset this group, but not so sure the distance will work in his favor. He likes to come off the pace, and it looks like the top three will take off, he is dangerous, but hot seeing him catching them at the wire.
Bombs Away:
#2 Unbridled's Note ML 20/1
Won his maiden on first calling, then got beat up in the Southwest (G3). On the replay, it was just ugly, back break, traffic and then it was over. He is making his third start for Asmussen and I like that Hill is on board. His breeding say he can handle the distance, he got some good experience last out and and you can use the key race angle to a degree. We don't know how good he is, and that makes him dangerous.
Selections:
8 - 7 - 3
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Another Dayatthespa @Gulfstream Today?#
The Tampa Bay Derby turned out to be an interesting handicapping day. Take Charge Indy scratches, and Prospective gets bet down from a ML of 8/1 down to 2/1 during most the wagering, then after the windows close he pops up to 3/1. Battle Hardened and Spring Hill Farm sit at 5/2. I didn't play the race, I was distracted getting ready for Delta Downs, but in the end I will admit I would have gone with Battle Hardened. Prospective ran a great race, and now joins the fray for Derby Challengers.
Today, we run back over to Gulfstream and will look at the 10th race, the 27th running of Here Comes The Bride (G3), for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the grass. Eight entrants will be running for the $150,000 purse. Looking down the card, we see some familiar faces, with many have beaten each other in previous races, which makes it interesting. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#5 Dixie Strike ML 4/1
At first blush, I was going to slot Dayatthespa here, but the more I looked at this filly the more I liked her to win. She is shipping in from Tampa where she won the Florida Oaks ($150K) and that wasn't an easy trip. No doubt she is tougher today, but this girl knows how to win (three of five). Her Beyer's have progress nicely and yes, she will have to step it up, but with Lezcano staying with her, I think that is possible.
#8 Dayatthespa ML 2/1
What's not to like about this Chad Brown trained filly? Her last trip she fanned wide and took the win easily. She beat several in here today, and with her 86 Beyer would appear to win this event. So why not first? Maybe I'm over handicapping here, her speed pattern looks bouncy to me, even with the breaks. If she follows her form cycle then she should run in the 70's, still good enough to win, but more vulnerable against this group.
#1 Wholelottashakin ML 6/1
This filly has been progressing nicely, finished second to the #8 in the Sweet Chant running her best Beyer of 82. What I like in her is how she bounced off the trouble trip in the Ginger Brew. I watched the replay several times, and not only was she pinched off at the start, it looked like Solis had to pull her up as well. Her workouts are strong, she gets no added weight and Bush doesn't enter many in Graded Stakes but when he does he wins.
Dark Horse:
#6 Regalo Mia ML 8/1
There are a lot of good horses to get confused by, Northern Passion and Frolic's Revenge certainly deserve a mention. However, I really like the #6 as the dangerous filly. In her last, the Florida Oaks, she finished third, missing by a neck to Dixie Strike, and she had been brushed and didn't fold up. Her Beyer's are consistent and Castanon is back in the irons for this one. Her trainer, Michelle Nihei is careful where she puts her charges, and brings her back to where she won her maiden.
Bombs Away:
#7 Almusafa ML 12/1
She is another that bounced back well after a tough trip (5th in the Ginger Brew), even though her Beyer's flattened a bit. The angle here is JohnnyV stays on board, and McLaughlin has a stunning 32% win record with returning winners ($2.30 ROI). Also, if your are into breeding influences, her sire yields 31% North American turf winners. If she improves her speed along with her running style, she could be the won to beat today.
Selections:
5 - 8 - 1
Today, we run back over to Gulfstream and will look at the 10th race, the 27th running of Here Comes The Bride (G3), for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the grass. Eight entrants will be running for the $150,000 purse. Looking down the card, we see some familiar faces, with many have beaten each other in previous races, which makes it interesting. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#5 Dixie Strike ML 4/1
At first blush, I was going to slot Dayatthespa here, but the more I looked at this filly the more I liked her to win. She is shipping in from Tampa where she won the Florida Oaks ($150K) and that wasn't an easy trip. No doubt she is tougher today, but this girl knows how to win (three of five). Her Beyer's have progress nicely and yes, she will have to step it up, but with Lezcano staying with her, I think that is possible.
#8 Dayatthespa ML 2/1
What's not to like about this Chad Brown trained filly? Her last trip she fanned wide and took the win easily. She beat several in here today, and with her 86 Beyer would appear to win this event. So why not first? Maybe I'm over handicapping here, her speed pattern looks bouncy to me, even with the breaks. If she follows her form cycle then she should run in the 70's, still good enough to win, but more vulnerable against this group.
#1 Wholelottashakin ML 6/1
This filly has been progressing nicely, finished second to the #8 in the Sweet Chant running her best Beyer of 82. What I like in her is how she bounced off the trouble trip in the Ginger Brew. I watched the replay several times, and not only was she pinched off at the start, it looked like Solis had to pull her up as well. Her workouts are strong, she gets no added weight and Bush doesn't enter many in Graded Stakes but when he does he wins.
Dark Horse:
#6 Regalo Mia ML 8/1
There are a lot of good horses to get confused by, Northern Passion and Frolic's Revenge certainly deserve a mention. However, I really like the #6 as the dangerous filly. In her last, the Florida Oaks, she finished third, missing by a neck to Dixie Strike, and she had been brushed and didn't fold up. Her Beyer's are consistent and Castanon is back in the irons for this one. Her trainer, Michelle Nihei is careful where she puts her charges, and brings her back to where she won her maiden.
Bombs Away:
#7 Almusafa ML 12/1
She is another that bounced back well after a tough trip (5th in the Ginger Brew), even though her Beyer's flattened a bit. The angle here is JohnnyV stays on board, and McLaughlin has a stunning 32% win record with returning winners ($2.30 ROI). Also, if your are into breeding influences, her sire yields 31% North American turf winners. If she improves her speed along with her running style, she could be the won to beat today.
Selections:
5 - 8 - 1
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Take Charge Indy in Tampa Bay Derby
Last Sunday, in the Ladies Turf Sprint at Gulfstream our "Bombs Away" selection, Inspired, won that race going off at around 4/1. That isn't necessarily a "Bombs Away" price, but I do subscribe to Mark Cramer's philosophy, over 4/1 should bring fair value. However, she went from 8/1 to 4/1, is that still fair value? I would have said, yes. Due to the money was spread all over those entrants, and if you liked the Iwinski trainer angle, why not? The key is not to over handicap.
Today, we stay in Florida and head to the gulf side and will play the 32nd running of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Purse $350,000. This race is for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on the main course. This race is one of those Derby hopeful opportunities and we 12 entered (there were no scratches at this time). I will say right now, I can't make up my mind who I like more, #7 Battle Hardened or #10 Take Charge Indy. I know many will say, what about the #9 Spring Hill Farm? Well, let me answer that in the analysis, so here we go ...
Contenders:
#10 Take Charge Indy ML 3/1
Some will say he has only won one race, his maiden, and that is true. However, his next three outings were at the Graded level (G3,G2,G1) and ran up against some of the toughest horses out there. I won't name them here, but look at the PP's and you will see them. The point is he ran well in those races, except maybe the BC Juvenile were he got steadied at the 7/8 pole and finished 5th, six plus back. He comes back at a 3YO and has a good race yielding late to El Padrino, who won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Out of that race, you see a strong Beyer improvement to 93, it was on a good track not fast, and Borel has taken over. Throw in his racing style of going forward, and workout tab is strong, he just looks good here. Now if we can get 3/1 or better!
#7 Battle Hardened ML 9/2
Took the big step from maiden victory to capture the Davis (G3) here Tampa Bay. Kennealy is bringing him along nicely, this would be the natural progression for him. Every race shows improvement in speed and racing style. He has raced gamely in each event and it looks like Leparoux is the man going forward. I agree with the DRF report, "should be right there when the smoke clears".
#9 Spring Hill Farm ML 5/2
Has won two in a row, moving through conditions, shown good improvement in Beyers (79-85) and trained by Pletcher. Today, will be his first real test, and he is going up against horses with more experience, also for me a big jockey change with Castellano taking over for Velazquez (not sure why?). In his last he weakened a bit at the end going a mile, it was a sloppy track that day, so not sure if that affected him. But in the end, I'm not feeling it with him.
Dark Horse:
#1 Prospective ML 8/1
This 3YO had a really nice 2YO campaign going until he hit the Hansen buzz saw (toss in Union Rags and Creative Cause that day) in the BC Juvenile. In his first three races, he showed nice speed progression, after the BC mess, he starts his 3YO season with the same progression, but better. I think Mark Casse has a good one here, and I like him in this race. He started the season winning a $65K stakes race and then almost caught Battle Hardened in the Davis (G3), all here at Tampa Bay. It is interesting that Casse is adding blinkers today for the first time, and Casse has a solid record with this move. At 8/1, he would be my play today.
Bombs Away:
#12 Cajun Charlie ML 15/1
Shipping in from Delta Downs, with three wins in a row over stakes company. He has shown excellent speed in both sprints and a route. His running style says he will go to the lead with Spring Hill Farm, and could just runaway with it. Some discount horses coming in from DeD, but for me they are some of the toughest ones out there. The connections are staying with Herbert, so that says they are serious with him, and Brian House is one crafty trainer. The only issue is his post, for a front runner he will have to hustle and that might be tough with this group of forward runners, but it will be interesting.
Selections:
10 - 7 - 9
Today, we stay in Florida and head to the gulf side and will play the 32nd running of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Purse $350,000. This race is for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on the main course. This race is one of those Derby hopeful opportunities and we 12 entered (there were no scratches at this time). I will say right now, I can't make up my mind who I like more, #7 Battle Hardened or #10 Take Charge Indy. I know many will say, what about the #9 Spring Hill Farm? Well, let me answer that in the analysis, so here we go ...
Contenders:
#10 Take Charge Indy ML 3/1
Some will say he has only won one race, his maiden, and that is true. However, his next three outings were at the Graded level (G3,G2,G1) and ran up against some of the toughest horses out there. I won't name them here, but look at the PP's and you will see them. The point is he ran well in those races, except maybe the BC Juvenile were he got steadied at the 7/8 pole and finished 5th, six plus back. He comes back at a 3YO and has a good race yielding late to El Padrino, who won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Out of that race, you see a strong Beyer improvement to 93, it was on a good track not fast, and Borel has taken over. Throw in his racing style of going forward, and workout tab is strong, he just looks good here. Now if we can get 3/1 or better!
#7 Battle Hardened ML 9/2
Took the big step from maiden victory to capture the Davis (G3) here Tampa Bay. Kennealy is bringing him along nicely, this would be the natural progression for him. Every race shows improvement in speed and racing style. He has raced gamely in each event and it looks like Leparoux is the man going forward. I agree with the DRF report, "should be right there when the smoke clears".
#9 Spring Hill Farm ML 5/2
Has won two in a row, moving through conditions, shown good improvement in Beyers (79-85) and trained by Pletcher. Today, will be his first real test, and he is going up against horses with more experience, also for me a big jockey change with Castellano taking over for Velazquez (not sure why?). In his last he weakened a bit at the end going a mile, it was a sloppy track that day, so not sure if that affected him. But in the end, I'm not feeling it with him.
Dark Horse:
#1 Prospective ML 8/1
This 3YO had a really nice 2YO campaign going until he hit the Hansen buzz saw (toss in Union Rags and Creative Cause that day) in the BC Juvenile. In his first three races, he showed nice speed progression, after the BC mess, he starts his 3YO season with the same progression, but better. I think Mark Casse has a good one here, and I like him in this race. He started the season winning a $65K stakes race and then almost caught Battle Hardened in the Davis (G3), all here at Tampa Bay. It is interesting that Casse is adding blinkers today for the first time, and Casse has a solid record with this move. At 8/1, he would be my play today.
Bombs Away:
#12 Cajun Charlie ML 15/1
Shipping in from Delta Downs, with three wins in a row over stakes company. He has shown excellent speed in both sprints and a route. His running style says he will go to the lead with Spring Hill Farm, and could just runaway with it. Some discount horses coming in from DeD, but for me they are some of the toughest ones out there. The connections are staying with Herbert, so that says they are serious with him, and Brian House is one crafty trainer. The only issue is his post, for a front runner he will have to hustle and that might be tough with this group of forward runners, but it will be interesting.
Selections:
10 - 7 - 9
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Could be Broken Dreams @GP Turf Sprint today
The Battaglia was one exciting race yesterday. I have to give Ill Conceived credit for digging in and fighting hard against State of Play. That is two loses at the wire now in 3YO Derby hopeful races! I'm not sure if Ill Conceived is in the same league as Mark Valeski, but they both showed grit and toughness. For today's Weekend Handicapping we are heading back to Gulfstream Park, for the Ladies Turf Sprint for 4YO fillies and mares, racing for a purse of $70,000. It's over the turf course going 5 furlongs and a field of 10 have entered, so don't blink or you'll miss it.
Contenders:
#5 Suzzona ML 10/1
This 8YO mare is battle tested and knows how to win, 18 for 30 over the turf. She is coming off a long layoff, but her history shows that is a good thing (if I counted right she won four of eight after layoffs). Her speed fig's are competitive with this group, as well as, her class. She had won four before losing to finish out her 7YO campaign. She has shown she can win wherever they race her, and the Feliciano/Pimental connection is a stout one. Actually, Feliciano's record is outstanding with these kind of horses, period. I don't think we will see 10/1 when the gate opens, but anything near it makes her a solid play.
#2 Broken Dreams ML 5/2
Proctor brings her here after a rough time in the BC, and like the #5 has no problems with winning off layoffs. Her speed is the best of the bunch, won at the G3 level, and her workouts have been outstanding. They are bringing in Lezcano, who won the Big Cap yesterday at Santa Anita, that says they are ready for this one. If I do have a concern here is that this race might be a tad too short for her running style. She is going to have to get up there early or no chance.
#4 Indulgence ML 4/1
Whenever she has run over the turf her results have been solid, but this race will be a step up for the 5YO mare. Her turf speed is okay, not quite fast enough to beat off the top two, but she does have the ability to surprise. What makes her a factor is her three spins on the GP turf and finishing in the money twice. Not necessarily a horse of course, but it does make her dangerous. Wolfson keeps Elvis on board, and they are having a nice meet together.
Dark Horse:
#6 Cascadilla Falls ML 4/1
Bill Mott drops this lightly raced 4YO filly into an interesting spot. She won two of four last year over the turf and now makes her 2012 debut. She has the front end speed to take off and go wire to wire, her Beyers are at 89 in these events, and she could improve dramatically. Her workouts have been outstanding and today Prado takes over. Mott has excellent stakes record, and scored a big one yesterday at Santa Anita, could be a double for him this weekend. Dangerous horse with the front end style.
Bombs Away:
#8 Inspired ML 8/1
She is coming off a win at the Fair Grounds against older horses, with a 92 Beyer in the Pan Zareta ($75K). This 5YO mare loves to get out front and will do the same today. She beat Suzzona back in the Jenny Walden ($100K) last summer, and then Suzzona turned the tables on her next time out. You have to like Iwinski in this spot, his record shows when he puts one in like this they usually win.
Selections:
5 - 2 - 4
Contenders:
#5 Suzzona ML 10/1
This 8YO mare is battle tested and knows how to win, 18 for 30 over the turf. She is coming off a long layoff, but her history shows that is a good thing (if I counted right she won four of eight after layoffs). Her speed fig's are competitive with this group, as well as, her class. She had won four before losing to finish out her 7YO campaign. She has shown she can win wherever they race her, and the Feliciano/Pimental connection is a stout one. Actually, Feliciano's record is outstanding with these kind of horses, period. I don't think we will see 10/1 when the gate opens, but anything near it makes her a solid play.
#2 Broken Dreams ML 5/2
Proctor brings her here after a rough time in the BC, and like the #5 has no problems with winning off layoffs. Her speed is the best of the bunch, won at the G3 level, and her workouts have been outstanding. They are bringing in Lezcano, who won the Big Cap yesterday at Santa Anita, that says they are ready for this one. If I do have a concern here is that this race might be a tad too short for her running style. She is going to have to get up there early or no chance.
#4 Indulgence ML 4/1
Whenever she has run over the turf her results have been solid, but this race will be a step up for the 5YO mare. Her turf speed is okay, not quite fast enough to beat off the top two, but she does have the ability to surprise. What makes her a factor is her three spins on the GP turf and finishing in the money twice. Not necessarily a horse of course, but it does make her dangerous. Wolfson keeps Elvis on board, and they are having a nice meet together.
Dark Horse:
#6 Cascadilla Falls ML 4/1
Bill Mott drops this lightly raced 4YO filly into an interesting spot. She won two of four last year over the turf and now makes her 2012 debut. She has the front end speed to take off and go wire to wire, her Beyers are at 89 in these events, and she could improve dramatically. Her workouts have been outstanding and today Prado takes over. Mott has excellent stakes record, and scored a big one yesterday at Santa Anita, could be a double for him this weekend. Dangerous horse with the front end style.
Bombs Away:
#8 Inspired ML 8/1
She is coming off a win at the Fair Grounds against older horses, with a 92 Beyer in the Pan Zareta ($75K). This 5YO mare loves to get out front and will do the same today. She beat Suzzona back in the Jenny Walden ($100K) last summer, and then Suzzona turned the tables on her next time out. You have to like Iwinski in this spot, his record shows when he puts one in like this they usually win.
Selections:
5 - 2 - 4
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Ill Conceived to upset in Battaglia today
When I looked at the stakes races today, no doubt all the big action is at Aqueduct. However, I happen to like the favorites in each of those races. I can't see Hansen losing, and I'm a big fan of It's Tricky and Caleb Posse, so my view would be slanted. That leaves us with the Sam Battaglia Memorial $75,000 stakes race at Turfway Park. The track was closed yesterday due to bad weather, but as I write this the weather looks good for today, so I'm going to go ahead and analyze this event.
It's the 10th race on the card going a mile and sixteenth for 3YO. There is a field of five entered, and while they are not the highest ranked 3YO for the Derby trail, it's still a competitive race, in fact, maybe too competitive! When you look at it, I can see realistically four of the five winning it. So here are my top three picks ...
#2 Ill Conceived ML 7/2
This 3YO had a solid 2YO campaign by hitting the board five of six times with two wins. His last outing in a stakes race at Laurel was solid and has been working well. I like that his Beyer's have been improving over the last two outings, and looks like the added distance may help. The angle I'm playing here is a track switch coupled with a jockey change, and toss in a stretch out in distance.
#6 Mr. Prankster ML 9/5
He will be looking for his third in a row here at Turfway, his last two stakes wins ($50K). His Beyer's bumped up dramatically from a 78 to a 88 when he stretched out to a mile. You have to like the Michael Maker/McKee connection and the added distance should work well for this 3YO. He has shown he likes this track and has no problem going wide to win. The pace might be a touch quicker today, and that does make him vulnerable to his racing style.
#4 State of Play ML 2/1
This 3YO is ranked #60 at Horse Racing Nation for Derby Contenders and certainly deserves the favorite slot for this race. Hard to argue against this lightly race 3YO with a G2 win under his belt at this distance over turf. This will be his second effort over dirt, his last was at Tampa where he finished seventh in a G3 affair. He had a nice workout and Graham Motion puts the track leader, LeBron in the irons. It will be interesting to see if he bounces back or is he a more of a turf horse. One thing for sure, the price will be miserly.
I didn't include a dark horse or Bombs Away due to the small field, it is obvious the dark horse would be the #1 Dynamical entered by Mark Casse. Overall, I think this is going to be the best race of the day.
Selections:
2 - 6 - 4
One last note, I'm blogging Monday through Friday at the-clocker.blogspot.com/
It's the 10th race on the card going a mile and sixteenth for 3YO. There is a field of five entered, and while they are not the highest ranked 3YO for the Derby trail, it's still a competitive race, in fact, maybe too competitive! When you look at it, I can see realistically four of the five winning it. So here are my top three picks ...
#2 Ill Conceived ML 7/2
This 3YO had a solid 2YO campaign by hitting the board five of six times with two wins. His last outing in a stakes race at Laurel was solid and has been working well. I like that his Beyer's have been improving over the last two outings, and looks like the added distance may help. The angle I'm playing here is a track switch coupled with a jockey change, and toss in a stretch out in distance.
#6 Mr. Prankster ML 9/5
He will be looking for his third in a row here at Turfway, his last two stakes wins ($50K). His Beyer's bumped up dramatically from a 78 to a 88 when he stretched out to a mile. You have to like the Michael Maker/McKee connection and the added distance should work well for this 3YO. He has shown he likes this track and has no problem going wide to win. The pace might be a touch quicker today, and that does make him vulnerable to his racing style.
#4 State of Play ML 2/1
This 3YO is ranked #60 at Horse Racing Nation for Derby Contenders and certainly deserves the favorite slot for this race. Hard to argue against this lightly race 3YO with a G2 win under his belt at this distance over turf. This will be his second effort over dirt, his last was at Tampa where he finished seventh in a G3 affair. He had a nice workout and Graham Motion puts the track leader, LeBron in the irons. It will be interesting to see if he bounces back or is he a more of a turf horse. One thing for sure, the price will be miserly.
I didn't include a dark horse or Bombs Away due to the small field, it is obvious the dark horse would be the #1 Dynamical entered by Mark Casse. Overall, I think this is going to be the best race of the day.
Selections:
2 - 6 - 4
One last note, I'm blogging Monday through Friday at the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Fountain of Youth = Union Rags
Yesterday’s Risen Star turned out to be quite a race! Our pick Mark Valeski dueled El Padrino right down to the wire. I admit, I was wary of El Padrino’s last outing, but he showed he is going to be a tough customer on the road to the Derby. At Gulfstream Park today, we could argue this is the first big Derby hopeful test, Fountain of Youth (G2) for a purse of $400,000. Eight starters are going to go a mile and sixteenth and on paper it looks like a two horse race, Algorithms and Union Rags. They are the definite heavyweights here, but when you look a bit deeper there are one or two entrants that could upset today. Let’s take a look …
Contenders:
#7 Union Rags ML 2/1
For me he is still the one to beat. Yes, Hansen won the BC Juvenile, but Union Rags showed a determined effort finishing second. He ran four wide at Churchill and just missed beating Hansen, and we have seen Hansen is beatable. Three consistent Beyer numbers, Matz has him working well and look forward to him getting back on the winning track. There isn’t a lot of front end speed so the pace suits him well. Normally, it would bother me with a jockey change, but I see no drop off with Leparoux taking the irons.
#5 Discreet Dancer ML 3/1
Realistically Algorithms would be in this slot, but I’m going with handicapping instincts and I really like Discreet Dancer in this place. If the odds hold, he would be my money play. It will be his first big test, but he has shown excellent speed over his first two (98 – 96). Pletcher is bringing him along perfectly, his workouts have been outstanding and Velazquez jumps on board. Some might say he is the rabbit for Algorithms today, but if he gets loose there is no way he will give it up.
#2 Algorithms ML 8/5
He had a monster race in the Holy Bull taking down Hansen, popping a 105 Beyer. My only issue, and fell prey to it yesterday, but his biggest race was on an off track. Prior to that his speed was improving but to jump from 88 to 105 is always suspect. El Padrino showed me up yesterday, but overall, I will shy away from these youngsters with these big pops. He certainly has all the ability, training and breeding to win it. Regardless, the price will be miserly so we would layoff anyway.
No dark horse today.
Bombs Away:
#1 Neck ‘n Neck ML 15/1
It was between him and Fort Loudon and in the end will go with the #1. He has shown nice speed improvement, and ran a good race in the SF Davis at Tampa. He raced seven wide and was closing fast. Ian Wilkes puts blinkers on, and that is always an interesting to play, has shown he can handle the distance, and if Lezcano keeps him close he might have a shot to win it. It’ll take a big effort, but again I stress with young 3YO’s you never know who wakes up.
Selections:
7 – 5 - 2
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