Saturday, April 7, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: A Hardened Wildcat in the Bayshore(G3)

We had a nice double last weekend.  Hit It Rich won the Orchid on Saturday, followed by Nate's Mineshaft taking the New Orleans Handicap.  Both paid handsome returns, Hit It Rich paid $7.40 and Nate's Mineshaft returned $20.80! Now if we could do that every weekend, right?  Today, we are at Aqueduct and going to look at a sprint race for 3YO's.  It's the Bayshore Handicap (G3) going 7 furlongs for a purse of $250,000. We have eight entered and several of them like to get on top quick, so don't be surprised to see a wire to wire finish in this one.


#6  Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1

This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand.  His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.

#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1

I can't let this race be completely chalk!  He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt.  He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win.  The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.

#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5

His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut.  Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins.  The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce".  Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid.  I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.

Dark Horse:

#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1

This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off.  The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins.  He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.

#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1

This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them.  As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him.  The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out.  He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce.  Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start.  Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.

Bombs Away:

#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1

Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire.  He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons.  There is something about Cory at a price in features.  This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.


6 - 5 - 1

I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday.

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