Yesterday's Belmont turned out to be an exciting race, with Union Rags getting the rail to open and he took it to win. In watching the replay, I wasn't sure if it would open and he sure looked pinned in on the rail. Afterwards, Mike Smith took the blame for letting it open up and JohnnyV said they got lucky. No matter what, it was a good race, exciting and happy to see Union Rags back in form. The stakes schedule is quiet today, so I am going to take a look at the Redondo Beach turf race at Hollywood Park. It's a mile race for $70,000 for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards. There are eight ladies going forward, so I will have three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.
Contenders:
#7 All Star Heart ML 3/1
She will be making her 5YO debut in this feature race. Last season she won 5 of 7, including her last race the Las Palmas (G2). When you look at her PP's you see a tale of two horses here. Once she came under Ron McAnally tutleage, she ripped off those 5 wins going a mile on grass. Her Beyer's have been real consistent, she has won once here on the Hollywood turf and has won coming off the bench before. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and she looks well positioned to take this one.
#6 Star Billing ML 5/2
She too will be making her 2012 debut today as a 4YO. Her 3YO season resulted in winning 3 of 7, most of those races were graded affairs. She has won twice at this distance, the Senorita (G3) and the Matriarch (G1), both races came at Hollywood Park. The main reason I've have her in second today, is that in her last break from racing she came up empty at Keeneland. She has been gone for over 6 months and while her workouts look good and Sherreffs does will with layoffs, I think she'll need this one today to find her footing.
#5 A Jealous Woman ML 5/1
She had a great 3YO season winning 4 races, including 2 over the Hollywood grass. Since then she has not done much, winning only once in an Optional Claimer last February. The key angle here is the jockey switch to Bejarano by Meza and putting her back at a mile. She is 2 for 4 at this distance and on the board in all 4. It might be asking a lot today against the group, but she likes to race up front and that might be a difference maker.
Bombs Away:
#8 Good Karma (ITY) ML 12/1
The angle here with this 4YO filly is the following: shipping in and a new trainer in Cecil, jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and keeping her at a mile. We can see from her results in Italy, she does have talent and often with a change of scenery, especially California, horses like her wake up. It'll be interesting to watch regardless.
Alert!
Showing posts with label Turf Races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turf Races. Show all posts
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Snow Top Mountain in the Mint Julep @ Chruchiill
Today we head down to Churchill Downs and will look at the 36th running of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap. It's a Grade 3 race for fillies and mares 3YO on turf going a mile and sixteenth for a purse of $100,000. Their are nine entered and as of this writing no scratches. There is no real front end speed in this bunch of ladies, most are stalkers or closer's, so it makes this race wide open. When all said and done the mare I keep coming back to is ...
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Hit It Rich in the Orchid at GP Today
I thought we would go in a different direction today, and not look at the Florida Derby. It's going to be an interesting race no doubt, is Union Rags on track for the Derby? and how good is El Padrino off the Risen Star? But instead of trading punches on that race, there is another race on the card that I think is loaded with contention, and will be exciting.
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Romacaca looks like a Honey Fox @GP Today
Yesterday in the Rebel, I was happy to see the great performance by Optimizer. I remember when he broke his maiden at Saratoga and thought this horse was going to be something. He certainly has struggled, but yesterday he put on a great finish for place. He might not be a Derby contender, but he his going to be a solid 3YO.
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
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