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Saturday, June 23, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Two horse race in the Mother Goose, maybe!

So far this month we have gotten off to a good start, three winners in four races, and one dark horse selection coming through.  However, that could end today at Belmont in the Mother Goose (G1).  It looks like a two horse race on paper, and will probably be so if you can figure out which one will win it.  The Mother Goose is for 3YO fillies going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt track.  The purse is for $300,000 and we have a small field  of five.  With that there will be only three contenders today.

Contenders:

#2 Contested ML 7/5

She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont.  Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out.  She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire.  Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.

#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5

Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer.  Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud.  She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races.  If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.

#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1

It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second.  She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies.  What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace.  If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail.  She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.  

Selection:

2 - 1 - 3

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