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Saturday, June 30, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Big Day at Charles Town, The Red Legend Sprint

It's not often we get to look at a big purse sprint race like we do today at Charles Town.  It's the 5th running of the 7 Furlong, Red Legend for 3YO's and the purse is a staggering $400,000!  We have 10 entries, that includes Hansen, but while he may be the big name, he is not a lock by any means. Here we go ...

Contenders:

#1 Il Villano ML 9/2

He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race  fits him perfectly.  He is the definite come and catch me.

#3 Majestic City ML 8/1

He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity.  After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer.  Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps.  I look for him to really improve today.

#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1

Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row.  Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today.  He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.

Dark Horse:

#7 Hansen ML 7/5

He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be.  If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill.  My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.

 Bombs Away:

#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1

This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting.  Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus.  Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward.  Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time.  Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.

Selection:

1 - 3 - 9

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