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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream

Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win.  I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder.  Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000.  It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.

As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched.  This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open.  The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...

Contenders:

#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1

This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.

#9  Anne's Beauty ML 6/1

She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87.  Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream.  Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races.  She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).

#10  Entrustment ML 4/1

On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO.  Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it.  Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad.  Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.

Dark Horses:

#7  Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1

Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield.  She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent.  I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons.  I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.

#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2

This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream.  So why do I have her here?  Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf.  The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.

Bombs Away:

#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1

This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners.  Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K).  After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.

Selections:

5 - 9 - 10

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