Weekend Handicapping: Marketing Mix ready to take Dancing Smart today @Woodbine

Just when you think you've got this game figured out, along comes Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith and smacks you back down to reality.  I'll admit I didn't give him much consideration in the Suburban yesterday at Belmont.  He took control of the race from the beginning and just dominated, congratulations to his connections. Today we head back up to Woodbine for a turf affair for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. It's the Grade 2, Dancing Smartly for a purse of $300,000 and there is a field of seven going the mile and an eighth.  We've been a bit off since a great start in June, so let's see if a race on the weeds brings us back.

Contenders:

#7 Marketing Mix ML 1/1

I'm not taking the easy way out going with the chalk selection, but when you look at this 4YO filly what can you say? She is coming off a nice win in the Nassau (G2) here on the turf, giving her five of seven on turf.  Her speed is consistent, seems to win where ever she goes, and two for two at Woodbine, with two solids results at this distance on turf.  Tom Proctor is solid in this situation and with Leparoux having this filly wired, she is going to be hard to beat, regardless of the odds.

#1 Indian Pond ML 4/1

This lightly raced 4YO has two turf wins to her credit, both at Woodbine.  Her last effort, and her 4YO debut was a strong one losing to Marketing Mix by two lengths in the Grade 2, Nassau.  She has won at this distance back in October over the synthetic here at Woodbine and has shown a burst of speed since turning four.  She will come off the pace with Inglorious and that will be interesting.  I look for her to have an even better effort in her second start.

#4 Kissable(IRE) ML 6/1

I have a tendency to play the first time UK/Euro starter on turf, and would have put her first if Marketing Mix hadn't been in the mix.  She has acquitted herself well in some big stakes races in Ireland, showed good speed on soft surfaces.  Most overseas turf runners respond well to our harder turf, so I can see filly being there at the end.  Roger Attfield is a crafty trainer, even though his record with these first time starters is  zero for eleven.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

 # 2 Inglorious ML 5/2

She will be making her third start on grass today and her second effort against Marketing Mix.  Two back she finished second coming five wide, and with the added distance see no reason she can't overhaul her. We know this filly can win big races and Carroll has been working her well.  The big angle is the change to Husbands, who wins 24% on grass.  If we can get 3/1 or better she would be the play.

Selection:

7 - 1 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Dixie Strike in the Woodbine Oaks

Today we head north to Woodbine for the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. It's for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the synthetic surface.  Like yesterday in the Mint Julep, there is no real front end speed in this field of nine.  In fact, what makes this a difficult race to handicap is that none of the ladies has gone this distance before. In doing the analysis I found three contenders but no dark horse, and of course the long shot play. So here goes ...

Contenders:

#6  Dixie Strike ML 6/5

She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router.  Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive.  She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners.  The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her.  It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.

#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1

This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season.  The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races.  Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons.  Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late.  She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.

#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2

The second of three Mark Casse entries.  She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second.  Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady.  The issue is can she go two turns with this group?  Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race.  She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.

Bombs Away:

#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1

Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races.  This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one.  Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's.  If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.

Selections:

6 - 7 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Wait Til Dawn could surprise in the Selene @Woodbine

The Peter Pan (G2) turned out to be an interesting race yesterday.  Right To Vote took off and ran some blistering fractions and didn't quit.  Mark Valeski ran his race pressing the pace and then taking control from the outside at the eighth pole to win it.  Interestingly, Mark Valeski went off at 6/5 which isn't a bad price considering Teeth of the Dog scratched. I would have thought Mark Valeski would have dropped to even money or worse.  What did surprise is how Right To Vote got away at 47/1! He impressed me with his race, showed wow speed and grit deep into the stretch.  The early reports are he will be in the Dwyer and I think that distance of a mile and sixteenth will suit him better.

Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000.  It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.

Contenders:

#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5

We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly.  She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic.  Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready.  She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.

#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5

Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit.  Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair.  She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3.  We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route?  This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.

#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1

She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts.  Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous.  She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week.  Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1

It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing.  She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at  first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X.  This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time.  He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win.  She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.

Selections:

1 - 2 -3

Weekend Handicapping: Paso Doble dances through the Vigil at Woodbine

The wonderful story from yesterday's Derby was not only Doug O'Neill getting his first Derby win, but for Mario Gutierrez showing all the jockey's out there that with hard work and a good agent you can make it out of the small tracks (Hastings) and hit the big time. He rode the perfect race yesterday, getting I'll Have Another in the right place off the pace, clear of trouble and then laid into the third lane and ran down an impressive Bodemeister. Regardless what happens in two weeks at Pimlico, Mario's future looks bright!

The only major race on the schedule today is at Woodbine and it's the 58th running of The Vigil (G3) for 4YO and upwards, sprinting 7 panels for $150,000 over the synthetic surface.  A field of seven has entered and many of them have been up against each other last season.  It's a hard knocking crowd, with plenty of speed, and most are making second starts off a layoff,  that makes it interesting.


Contenders:

#2 Paso Doble ML 5/2

This 6YO gelding of Mark Casse had a nice debut in 2012, finishing third to Essence Hit Man (the favorite today) in the Cartier ($168K).  His past performances show he really fires his best efforts on the second off a layoff, and his bullet workouts would support that pattern.  His stalking style fits well here with three front runners, he should be poised to win his first graded event.  The Casse/Husbands connection wins 27% of the time, and Husbands is red hot right now.

#5 Essence Hit Man ML 7/5

He is the superior speed in this race and has two wins in a row to show for it.  His recent effort in the Cartier ($168K) was stunning, posting a 104 Beyer. There is little doubt he will get out on the front and take off, the question is, are there others that will make him earn it today? There might be in #1 and #3 and that could make him vulnerable.  If there is any nit picking to do, it's that he is inconsistent winning off a layoff and sometimes he gets beat on his second off of one.  He'll be tough to beat today, but looking for some of that inconsistent pattern to show itself.

#7 Signature Red ML 6/1

He'll be making his 5YO debut today and has always been in the hunt in every race.  Has won at this distance twice in five attempts here at Woodbine, and has won a G2 event (Highlander).  He has shown flashes of great speed, likes to press the pace which is a nice set up for this race.  Workouts have been crisp and Contreras rides him well.  The big issue does he break cleanly?  His history shows some wonky breaks from the gate, if he get's of sound then watch out he could run down the speed in this one.

Dark Horse:

# Bear Tough Tiger ML 4/1

This lightly raced 4YO won his debut in 2012 and that makes him four of five overall.  His only loss was at this distance but he still posted his best Beyer of 96.  Today he takes a big step forward moving up to stakes company.  His works have been sharp, Reade Baker excels in these situations and Quincy Welch is three for three when in the irons.  I prefer horses moving up in class off a win, and his past shows a big improvement with his second effort.  He is my money pick today.

Bombs Away:

# Something Extra ML 12/1

This 4YO is more of angle play today, having won two of three at this distance at Woodbine. I'm going to toss out the effort in the Cartier ($168K) for he was blocked late and never seemed to be in the race.  He will get out early and be part of the speed in this one.  His speed in the past would say not today, but in the Cartier he really showed improvement regardless of the situation.  I would think that improvement would continue today.  Gail Cox wins 20% on the second off layoff and 21% in sprints.

Selections:

2 - 5 - 7

Will be back blogging tomorrow at my blog:  http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine

Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury.  It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is  $150,000.  There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches.  Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such.  She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today.  So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...

Contenders:

#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2

She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei.  I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today.  If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly.  She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.

#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1

She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94!  She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.

#4 Dene Court ML 2/1

Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit.  She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second.  She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden.  Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good.  Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help.  She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.

Dark Horse:

#8  Rose and Shine ML 8/1

Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth.  It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead.  I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots.  She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away.  I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.

Bombs Away:

#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1

She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking.  In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally.  Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing.  She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace.  Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board.  It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.

Selections:

7 - 1 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Menlo Castle in the Woodstock @Woodbine

What can we say about Caixa Eletronica, our darkhorse selection for the Charles Town Classic. It wasa great race for him and Pletcher prepped him perfectly for it. I tip my hat to Duke of Mischief, I didn't think he would hold his own against this field and proved me wrong!  Today we head over to Woodbine and will look at the 114th running of the Woodstock for 3YO going 6 panels for $150,000 purse.  This will be interesting race for seven of the nine entries are making their 3YO debut, so that means big improvements and a price horse could surprise us.  


Contenders:  


#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2


He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions.  Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it.  His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets.  Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic.  The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher. 


#2 Hogy ML 3/1


He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park.  It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer.  Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four.  Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one.  The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.


#7 Town Prize ML 7/2


Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record.  He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end.  His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today.  His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons.  If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them. 


Dark Horses:


#8 Making Amends ML 6/1


He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race.  After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement.  Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark.  The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart.  We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).


#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1


Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end.  His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races.  Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open.  I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.


Bombs Away:


#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1


Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K).  He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth.  What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs.  Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs.  Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff.  We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78).  He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.


Selections:


4 - 2 - 7 

Weekend Handicapping: The Eagle is poised to win at Woodbine today

That was certainly a nice way to open the Gulfstream meet with a winner.  Ancient Rome came through and paid a neat $4.40, take that all day.  Today we head back up to Canada for the G3 Valedictory at Woodbine.  It’s for 3YO and upwards going a marathon mile and three quarters over the synthetic track.  A field of 6 will be racing for a purse of $150,000 and it is shaping up to be an interesting feature.  We have three recent winners, including a BC Marathon winner and couple of horses trying to find their way back to the winners circle.  I have four contenders and one Bombs Away today, so let’s take a look …

Contenders:

#2  Eagle Poise ML 5/2

This son of Empire Maker is having a nice 5YO campaign after a dismal zero for five 2010 season.  Won his last outing here at Woodbine, a nice progression of Beyer’s (80-87-89), and has won four of seven lifetime at Woodbine.  Graham Motion is a solid trainer in these situations and Husbands is staying with him.  He looks primed to capture his first Graded race today.

#5  Harrads Creek ML 6/1

Some might say this should be the dark horse or Bombs Away selection, but I like this 5YO here and he might end up winning this one.  He has won two of four this season and like the #2 has improving Beyer’s in each race (81-85-91).  Breeding says he can go the distance, and I’m not concerned he is going from turf to synthetic.  Bill Mott has him in good shape and brings Chantal back to ride him.  He will be on the front or near to take charge of this race.  If the price holds, this is one to play for value.

#3  Afleet Again ML  8/5

Truthfully, the only reason I’ve got him in this spot is out of respect for him winning the BC Marathon.  He has only won one of nine as a 4YO and his 3YO season was not all that great.  Other than that 95 at Churchill his Beyer’s have average, just don’t see him repeating that great effort in the Breeders Cup.  I might be wrong, but the #2 and #5 look better.

#4 Eye of the Leopard ML 2/1

I’d label this entry as my dark horse for today.  Good steady Beyer’s, can handle the distance and has won four of ten at Woodbine.  Forstad is getting him into form and this could be the break out race, he has shown a liking to the synthetic and has the sharpshooter in Contreras in the saddle. He likes to stay close and if the front runners get bogged down he could shoot through.

Bomb’s Away:

#1 Alpha Bettor ML 15/1

This 3YO is an angle play. His Beyer’s earlier in the season at Woodbine says he can run with this group.  He has won three of ten at Woodbine with two seconds, and Pizarro has been aboard for all his victories.    This is second outing after winning off the bench and Danny Vella does well on second off layoffs.  He will rate further back and if the group at the front falters he could scoot by and win it. No doubt he will need a strong effort but history says he can do it.

Selections:

2 – 5 – 3

Weekend Handicapping: 2YO's on Display at Woodbine today

What a nice race for To Honor and Serve yesterday in the Cigar Mile.  Haynesfield was right there to strike but never fired, in fact, he looked like he wanted to lug out off the rail.  Today, we head back up to Canada for the $150,000 Display Stakes going a mile and one-sixteenth over the synthetic surface for 2YO's.  There is a field of nine and it is loaded with some nice looking horses.  I admit I struggle with 2YO's and there are several contenders.  I will list five and one longshot.  Truthfully, this is all about price, I would probably play the one that had the best odds or took the most early money.  It should be a great race.  I will list the contenders in order of finish but it’s anyone’s race.

Contenders:

#1 Menlo Castle ML 3/1

This 2YO has had an active campaign and has done well being on the board every time he races at Woodbine.  He had a great effort in the Coronation coming way wide; his Beyer’s are the best of the bunch.  Biamonte is good with 2YO’s and a stellar stakes records (24%), I only wish Husbands was in the irons.

#5 Splendiferous ML 4/1

There are a bunch of angles with this pony.  You got a turf to synthetic play, first time blinkers and Johnny V coming north to ride him.  His last two races were in Graded company and wasn’t totally blown off the track, decent Beyer’s and we know he can handle the distance.  Margolis has a 23% hit record with horses coming off layoffs.

#7 Maritimer ML 5/2

What’s not to like.  Comes off a strong win in the Coronation, has put together a string of pearls with his Beyer’s (72-73-72-79).  Contreras has ridden four times well and with Attard having a decent stakes record.  The issue will be price.

#3 Patrioticandproud ML 6/1

He breaks his maiden at this distance at this track.  He did it with a respectable Beyer (72) and Husbands stays aboard. Mark Casse is an excellent trainer and this would were my money would go if he stays at 6/1 or higher.

#6 Bridgeburner ML 8/1

The morning line is a bit steep and could be the overlay here today.  He has won two in a row, the last an Allowance hitting a 81 Beyer.  Yes, all his races have been sprints but breeding says he can go two turns.  Howard is a good trainer, even though his stable is not huge, he knows how to win.  He has  a 21% win record with 2YO’s and Stein rides him real well. 

Bombs Away:

#4 Collen’s Sailor ML 10/1

Toss out that soft Turf run last out.  Beat Bridgeburner in winning his maiden in September running a competitive 72 Beyer.  Breeding says he can go this distance and Lynch/Madrid combo does well.  He might be a bit over his head with some of the others, but being 2YO’s you never know what you’ll get.  He is back on synthetic and that makes him dangerous.

Selections:

This is my betting order:

3 - 5 - 4 

Weekend Handicapping: Duelling fillies in the Bessarabian(G3) Today

In analyzing the River City yesterday I mentioned that Blue Street might need some freshening, well it looks like I might need the freshening.  What a nice race Robbie Albarado displayed in rallying off and winning that race.  I wasn’t disappointed by Tajaaweed, he raced in a good position but it looked like some traffic may have pinched him off down the stretch, that’s horse racing.

Today we go back to Canada and will take a look at the 27^th running of the Bessarabian, Grade 3.  It’s for fillies and mares, 3YO+ going 7 furlongs on synthetic for a purse of $150,000.  We have a solid group of lightly raced 4YO fillies, and there is plenty of front end speed that several can wire this field.

Contenders:

#6 Embur’s Song ML 5/2

I like this filly regardless of the lack of value in the odds.  Throw out the Spinster (G1) and you have a speedster that is having an excellent 4YO campaign.  She has won 3 G3 races this season, 2 here at Woodbine.  I know Atlantic Hurricane beat her in the Seaway back in September, but I sense Pletcher has her ready this time.  Her workouts of late are improved over the ones prior to the Spinster and he puts Husbands back on her.  She has proven herself to go to the front regardless of distance and go all the way.  I don’t consider her a cut back angle in this one; she is right where she belongs at 7 panels.

#9 Atlantic Hurricane ML 7/2

This filly should be the favorite when the gates open.  If you think the #6 is having a fine 4YO year this one is even better at 5 wins in 7 trips.   She’s got the Beyer’s that say wire to wire and Ramsammy handles her perfectly.  She has one G3 to her credit, the Seaway here at Woodbine.  Unless she gets into trouble, or being outside effects her, she will be there dueling at the end.

#3 Ariana D ML 3/1

This is the one filly that has beaten Atlantic Hurricane in the Avowal Stakes ($101K) here at Woodbine.  But she has been beaten by Embur’s Song, so what you have is a round robin of fillies.  She likes to lay back and if the speedballs blow the pace apart, she will be right there to pick up the pieces.  Of interesting note, she won this race last year before it became a G3 level race.  She has the speed to do it, and likes this distance, winning 3 of 4 lifetime at 7 panels.

Dark Horse:

#2 Zermatt ML 8/1

This 4YO is making her 4^th start of the season and her first G3 attempt.  She won her last outing at Keeneland in an Allowance event for non winners of 2.  She looks versatile enough to go out with the others or layoff.  Wilson gets her for the first time and will be interesting where Pletcher wants her in this one.  She’s not as fast as the top three but she is so lightly raced we don’t know where her ceiling is yet.  The price makes her intriguing, and if the top 3 get silly and knock each other around, she has the ability to sneak by them and win this one.

Bombs Away:

#5  Mullins Beach ML 12/1

This will be a trainer angle play here.  This will be Josie Carroll’s second attempt with this 5YO filly.  She seems to do better on grass and has raced well here at Woodbine.  She can pop some competitive Beyer’s that say she can run with these girls, it’s going to get down to where the rate her in this one.  I just like Carroll, Woodbine and this entry being a mare.  She’s not Inglorious for sure, but just got a feeling.

Selections:

6 – 9 – 3  

Weekend Handicapping: The British are coming .. The British are coming @Woodbine for the Mile(G1)

Yesterday we saw Winter Memories bounce back and run a very nice race.  The 3YO that impressed me was Theyskens' Theory , finishing second.   Gomez did a fine job with this import after getting bumped in near the start. I expect good things in the future from him.  All this leads me to today’s race at Woodbine.  We are going to look at the Woodbine Mile(G1) on turf for 3YO+ for a purse of a $1,000,000.  What makes this so race dynamic is the three first time imports and one other with a handful of USA races under his belt.

Why the big deal?  Several weeks ago on my blog I shared some tips l learned from Night School at Horseplayer Now on how to handicap imports.  The key is that we can’t ignore first time imports any longer.  They are winning consistently on our turf courses at first asking and usually at nice prices.   That makes this race problematic and more contentious then usual. 

Contenders:

#4  Courageous Cat ML 3/1

What can you say?  This is the top turf miler in the country right now.  Has won at all Grade levels, the most recent at Hollywood Park, the Shoemaker (G1).  His Beyer’s hold consistently over 100, and has the ability to go wire to wire today.  There will be some other speed to push him, but he should win his third in a row.

#5 Right Now(FR)  ML 8/1

This will be the fifth race in the USA for this French 5YO and is ready to move up to the G1 level.  Had a solid third to Courageous Cat in the Poker(G3) and looks poised to break through.  I like Gomez here too, especially after bringing Theysken’s Theory in for a second yesterday.  He will rate off and close in a hurry, good position if the speedster burn up.

#8 Turallure ML 5/1

This is one of those horses is either very good or very bad.  He is having a solid 4YO campaign winning two of five races, including the Baruch(G2) posting a 103 Beyer.  He has won at this distance and is versatile racing back or up front.  Thinking he will lay back and wait it out. Has Leparoux again, where he brought him to the finish line in first in two of the last three races.   Lastly, his trainer, Lopresti, while not having a ton of entries this year (62), his results are near the top.

Dark Horses:

#4 Side Glance(GB)  ML 4/1

Many will have this British invader in the top three and rightly so.  Recent win at the G3 level at Salisbury makes this 4YO gelding a dangerous one.   He will have his jockey of choice and gets a nice weight break for this one.  He likes to rate and should be in good position to close up on the front runners.  If the price swings out past 4/1 I’d be real interested in playing him to upset.

#2 Forte Dei Marmi (GB) ML 15/1       

      

Another British first timer and could also consider him a “Bombs Away” threat, but actually like him to upset.  Roger Attfield has taken over his USA training and has JohnnyV in the irons, and that alone makes him an interesting play.  Like Side Glance,  a big weight drop, and while winless so far as a 5YO, coming to the USA could be the tonic for him. Add the First time on Lasix, and you have a bunch of hunch angles with this one.  Definite play in your Tri’s and could pick up some of this huge purse.

“Bombs Away:”

#10 Kara’s Orientation ML 15/1

Hard to believe to see a recent G2 winner with high Beyer’s sitting in the long shot chair.  But here he sits, two straight wins, excellent speed patterns (88-89-98) and loves to go wire to wire.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ramsammy do what he did in the Sky Classic(G2,) and just let him go and see how he holds off the ‘Cat.  At the very worst, we will find out if this 4YO is the real deal.

Selections:

4 – 5 – 8

As a reminder will be blogging at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/  this evening Pick 4 selections for the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park.    

Weekend Handicapping: Taking to the Sky at Woodbine today

Yesterday we saw two great filly races, the Alabama (G1 at Saratoga on dirt) and the Del Mar Oaks (G1 at Del Mar on turf).  I think we all can agree is that there is no clear cut 3YO filly champion in either division.  There was no huge upsets, but just two fillies had their turn, Royal Delta winning with a strong closing performance over It’s Tricky and Summer Soiree holding off Star Billing and Nereid by a half a length.  Most are disappointed that the filly division doesn’t have a dominating filly, but I believe it’s better for racing to have a contentious group fighting it out all season.  It holds the racing fans interest and can attract new fans to the sport. 

Today, we head north to Canada and will handicap the Sky Classic (G2) for 3YO+ going 1 ¼ miles on turf.  There is a field of 6 entered, and as of this writing no scratches.  It’s a strong field; several have raced against each other and taken turns beating each other as well.  I will be listing the contenders in order and inside that list will be my “Bombs Away” selection.  This race is very competitive and of the six, five could easily claim victory.  Here we go,

1.       #5 Musketier ML 9/2:  This tough, Roger Attfield trained,  9YO should bounce back from the Nijinsky, as that race might have been a touch too short for him. You could also argue that his 109 Beyer from winning the Singspiel would not be duplicated.  I will look at the Nijinsky effort a good one but he bounced.    His record shows he likes to go long, winning the Singspiel(G3) and the Elkhorn(G2) over a mile and a half .  Back to 1 ¼ is more suitable and look for De Silva (17% winning record on turf) to have him a bit closer this time. 

2.       #4 Fifty Proof ML 2/1:  He is having a great 5YO campaign winning 2 of 4 and placing 2^nd in the other two races.  His last two were near misses, the last finishing 2^nd in the Nijinsky.  Likes to get to the front and dictate the pace and see no different here.  His Beyer’s are improving steadily, (101-98-95-88) and looks in good form with 2 5f works since the Nijinsky.   Louis Contreras stays on top for Ian Black, Contreras wins 22% of his turf races.  The only reason I didn’t place him #1 I’m biased against beaten favorites.  The statistics on “beaten favorites” winning on their next outing is very low, around 16%. 

3.       #2 Grassy ML 5/2:  He hasn’t raced since finishing 2^nd to Musketier in the Singspiel, but his workouts show he is in good form and has won coming off a layoff before.  Clement has a good track record winning with horses coming off their layoffs, over 20%. The other factors that I like about him is that if Kara’s Orientation hooks up with Fifty Proof and the pace begins to wilt, then Grassy will roll right by them.  Only Musketier and Hailstone have comparable closing Beyer’s. The Woodbine has been playing equal to all styles on the bias, so we have to respect this closer.  Also, a switch to Husbands, who has been red hot the last weeks and wins 21% on turf with a positive ROI.  This horse is dangerous and wouldn’t be surprised to see him take it. 

4.       #6 Hailstone ML 10/1:  My “Bombs Away” selection.  He really isn’t the classic longshot here but more like the forgotten horse.  Had a near miss in the Nijinsky finishing 3^rd out by a length.  No wins at the Graded level but has been close.  This 5YO colt has only 8 races under his belt and is in the money 5 of them.  His Beyer’s have been consistent and 2 solid works since the Nijinsky.  He could still be developing and might not be ready for this group, but the distance might play right into his hands.   Great pedigree and is the wild card here today.

5.       #3 Smart Bid ML 9/5:  Some might question why I have this Graham Motion trained horse rated so low.  Has won at this level and a near miss in a G1 back in February at Gulfstream.  So what’s there no to like?  A fair question, but going to hang my hat on that he has never won at this distance, seems to have struggled of late,  Prado has a low turf win percentage (5% on 200+ mounts), and could be way wrong here but don’t see his front end style working with Fifty Proof and Kara’s Orientation.  He has won once in his last nine, always near or on the board but not sure if he is a true winner like some of the other’s today.  Might make me look foolish in the end, but don’t see him in the winner’s circle today.

Race ranking:  5-4-2

Will be blogging at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ with the selections for the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park.  Hit it last night for a tidy $294.00 on a $27 ticket!  Good luck today and let’s cash tickets.