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Sunday, June 17, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Le Bernadin in Pegasus @Monmouth today

The Stephen Foster set up nicely for Ron the Greek yesterday.  Nate's Mineshaft took off and several chased, while the pace wasn't blistering it was enough to put Ron the Greek in great position. Lezcano rode it perfectly by staying to the inside and took care of business when the opportunity opened up.  Today, we head over to Monmouth Park for the Grade 3, Pegasus for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on dirt for a purse of $100,000.  We have a field of 7 lightly raced 3YO's and due to the shorter field I will have the 3 contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.

Contenders:

#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1

Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades.  I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win.  Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons.  He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time.  He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.

#7  Good Morning Diva ML 3/1

He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance.  Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth.  Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.

#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1

Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race.  We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's.  Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today.  Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.


Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1

Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden.  Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses.  McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.

Selection:
3 - 7 - 5

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