Weekend Handicapping: Menlo Castle in the Woodstock @Woodbine

What can we say about Caixa Eletronica, our darkhorse selection for the Charles Town Classic. It wasa great race for him and Pletcher prepped him perfectly for it. I tip my hat to Duke of Mischief, I didn't think he would hold his own against this field and proved me wrong!  Today we head over to Woodbine and will look at the 114th running of the Woodstock for 3YO going 6 panels for $150,000 purse.  This will be interesting race for seven of the nine entries are making their 3YO debut, so that means big improvements and a price horse could surprise us.  


Contenders:  


#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2


He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions.  Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it.  His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets.  Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic.  The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher. 


#2 Hogy ML 3/1


He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park.  It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer.  Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four.  Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one.  The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.


#7 Town Prize ML 7/2


Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record.  He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end.  His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today.  His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons.  If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them. 


Dark Horses:


#8 Making Amends ML 6/1


He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race.  After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement.  Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark.  The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart.  We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).


#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1


Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end.  His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races.  Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open.  I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.


Bombs Away:


#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1


Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K).  He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth.  What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs.  Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs.  Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff.  We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78).  He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.


Selections:


4 - 2 - 7 

Weekend Handicapping: Tackleberry in the Charles Town Classic

It's not often we get a big race out of Charles Town. So today with a $1,000,000 on the line we will take a look at the 12th Race, the 4th running of the Charles Town Classic (G2).  There is a field of 13 as of this writing and they will be going a mile and an eighth over the dirt course. What makes this race interesting is that all are shipping in, in fact, I think only three of them have ever raced at Charles Town and none more than once.  So we can toss out the horse for course angle, and with this big of a field we have to find the one's that can get out in front to avoid trouble.  I will make a note here that #7 Duke of Mischief ML 10/1, returns to defend his crown, winning this race last year over a sloppy track.  He won't be in my mix but wanted to reference his being in here.  So here we go ...

Contenders:

#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1

Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park.  Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle.  He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer.  Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th.  All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories.  It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.

#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1

Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show).  He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well.  His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth.  His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will.  The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.

#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1

After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap.  We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners.  The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest.  His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons.  He will need a big bounce today.

Dark Horse:

#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1

He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year.  He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February.  Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason.  We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride.  I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that.  If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.

Bombs Away:

#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1

This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2).  The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench.  We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before.  The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one.  Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.

Selections:

2 - 10 - 4

  

Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream

Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win.  I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder.  Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000.  It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.

As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched.  This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open.  The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...

Contenders:

#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1

This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.

#9  Anne's Beauty ML 6/1

She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87.  Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream.  Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races.  She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).

#10  Entrustment ML 4/1

On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO.  Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it.  Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad.  Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.

Dark Horses:

#7  Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1

Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield.  She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent.  I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons.  I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.

#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2

This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream.  So why do I have her here?  Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf.  The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.

Bombs Away:

#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1

This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners.  Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K).  After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.

Selections:

5 - 9 - 10

Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.

Weekend Handicapping: A Hardened Wildcat in the Bayshore(G3)

We had a nice double last weekend.  Hit It Rich won the Orchid on Saturday, followed by Nate's Mineshaft taking the New Orleans Handicap.  Both paid handsome returns, Hit It Rich paid $7.40 and Nate's Mineshaft returned $20.80! Now if we could do that every weekend, right?  Today, we are at Aqueduct and going to look at a sprint race for 3YO's.  It's the Bayshore Handicap (G3) going 7 furlongs for a purse of $250,000. We have eight entered and several of them like to get on top quick, so don't be surprised to see a wire to wire finish in this one.

Contenders:

#6  Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1

This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand.  His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.

#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1

I can't let this race be completely chalk!  He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt.  He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win.  The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.

#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5

His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut.  Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins.  The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce".  Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid.  I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.

Dark Horse:

#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1

This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off.  The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins.  He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.

#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1

This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them.  As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him.  The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out.  He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce.  Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start.  Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.

Bombs Away:

#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1

Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire.  He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons.  There is something about Cory at a price in features.  This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.

Selections:

6 - 5 - 1

I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday. http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Nates Mineshaft for Nawlins Handicap at FG

I skipped the Florida Derby to look at the Orchid, and Hit It Rich got it done. She held her morning line at 3/1 and paid a nice $7.20 for her effort. I was also pleased to Aqsaam do well, holding place to a hard charging Keertana.  It was a thrilling race! Today, we are going to the Fair Grounds, and will ignore the Louisiana Derby fora really difficult race, the New Orleans Handicap(G2). It's for 4YO+ going a mile and an eighth over the main course.  The nine entrants are gunning for a $400,000 purse, and we see a lot of familiar faces.  Right off the bat, I see six of them winning this race, it's that contentious. I'm going to write this one up differently, going to list my three contenders, then the next three possibles.

Contenders:

#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1

Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds.  He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer.   He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem.  He won't break from the gate at 10/1,  but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.

#1 Nehro ML 6/1

He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races.  He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle.  I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here.  He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.

#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1

Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one.  This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel.  Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire.  He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.

Possibles:

#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2

He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race.  He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry.  My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today.  I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can.  But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.

#5 Redeemed ML 4/1

He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct.  He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.

#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2

He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.

Selections:

3 - 1 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: The three S's in the Rebel Stakes

Today at Oaklawn we have the next big race for 3YO's gunning for Derby contention.  A field of 11 hopefuls have entered this mile and a sixteenth affair, and they will be shooting for a piece of that $500,000 purse.  So lets get started ...

Contenders:

# 8 Secret Circle ML 9/5

No real surprise here, he should be the favorite. Five starts with four wins, with a solid performance in the Southwest (G3), popping a 102 Beyer.  His workouts have been excellent, he can handle the distance and it looks like Baffert has him set up perfectly.  If I have to find a weakness is that he might be vulnerable with the added distance. Both mile races were duel's at the end, and with some tough closer's and decent pace he might get nailed at the wire.

#7 Sabercat ML 5/1

This 3YO could be the big surprise today.  He has won three in a row, that last one a G3 event at Delta Downs.  His Beyer figures while not at the level of Secret Circle or Scatman, have been improving, and he could be ready for a big jump. He has shown he can win at this distance, and Asmussen does well with horses coming off the bench (21% wins).  I also like that  he has a versatile running style and has won with three different jockeys.  Today, Nakatani is in the irons, and when he rides for Asmussen he seems to really shine.

#3 Scatman ML 8/1

Had a big race in the Southwest (G3) and almost held off Secret Circle.  He made a big jump from a 87 to 101 Beyer. He likes to go to the front and see nothing different this time out, the only challenge for him is the added distance.  He flashed a good workout on the 10th, so fitness is not a concern, but I'm not so sure he can run away from this group, and in the end will get caught short.

Dark Horses:

#11 Najjaar ML 6/1

Back to back wins at this distance over the course and improving speed figures. This will be a big step up for him, but Dan Peitz is a solid trainer in these situations. Borel stays on and if you like closer's then this 3YO is for you. If the front end gets hairy and it could with those top three, he could slip through, and Borel is a money rider in these spots.

#12 Adirondack King ML 6/1

Took on his first route in the Southwest (G3) and finished third to Secret Circle and Scatman, had to come  six wide and still posted a good 91 Beyer. A lot of folks believe he can upset this group, but not so sure the distance will work in his favor.  He likes to come off the pace, and it looks like the top three will take off, he is dangerous, but hot seeing him catching them at the wire.

Bombs Away:

#2 Unbridled's Note ML 20/1

Won his maiden on first calling, then got beat up in the Southwest (G3).  On the replay, it was just ugly, back break, traffic and then it was over.  He is making his third start for Asmussen and I like that Hill is on board.  His breeding say he can handle the distance, he got some good experience last out and and you can use the key race angle to a degree.  We don't know how good he is, and that makes him dangerous.

Selections:

8 - 7 - 3