Weekend Handicapping: Two horse race in the Mother Goose, maybe!

So far this month we have gotten off to a good start, three winners in four races, and one dark horse selection coming through.  However, that could end today at Belmont in the Mother Goose (G1).  It looks like a two horse race on paper, and will probably be so if you can figure out which one will win it.  The Mother Goose is for 3YO fillies going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt track.  The purse is for $300,000 and we have a small field  of five.  With that there will be only three contenders today.

Contenders:

#2 Contested ML 7/5

She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont.  Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out.  She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire.  Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.

#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5

Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer.  Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud.  She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races.  If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.

#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1

It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second.  She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies.  What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace.  If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail.  She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.  

Selection:

2 - 1 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: The three S's in the Rebel Stakes

Today at Oaklawn we have the next big race for 3YO's gunning for Derby contention.  A field of 11 hopefuls have entered this mile and a sixteenth affair, and they will be shooting for a piece of that $500,000 purse.  So lets get started ...

Contenders:

# 8 Secret Circle ML 9/5

No real surprise here, he should be the favorite. Five starts with four wins, with a solid performance in the Southwest (G3), popping a 102 Beyer.  His workouts have been excellent, he can handle the distance and it looks like Baffert has him set up perfectly.  If I have to find a weakness is that he might be vulnerable with the added distance. Both mile races were duel's at the end, and with some tough closer's and decent pace he might get nailed at the wire.

#7 Sabercat ML 5/1

This 3YO could be the big surprise today.  He has won three in a row, that last one a G3 event at Delta Downs.  His Beyer figures while not at the level of Secret Circle or Scatman, have been improving, and he could be ready for a big jump. He has shown he can win at this distance, and Asmussen does well with horses coming off the bench (21% wins).  I also like that  he has a versatile running style and has won with three different jockeys.  Today, Nakatani is in the irons, and when he rides for Asmussen he seems to really shine.

#3 Scatman ML 8/1

Had a big race in the Southwest (G3) and almost held off Secret Circle.  He made a big jump from a 87 to 101 Beyer. He likes to go to the front and see nothing different this time out, the only challenge for him is the added distance.  He flashed a good workout on the 10th, so fitness is not a concern, but I'm not so sure he can run away from this group, and in the end will get caught short.

Dark Horses:

#11 Najjaar ML 6/1

Back to back wins at this distance over the course and improving speed figures. This will be a big step up for him, but Dan Peitz is a solid trainer in these situations. Borel stays on and if you like closer's then this 3YO is for you. If the front end gets hairy and it could with those top three, he could slip through, and Borel is a money rider in these spots.

#12 Adirondack King ML 6/1

Took on his first route in the Southwest (G3) and finished third to Secret Circle and Scatman, had to come  six wide and still posted a good 91 Beyer. A lot of folks believe he can upset this group, but not so sure the distance will work in his favor.  He likes to come off the pace, and it looks like the top three will take off, he is dangerous, but hot seeing him catching them at the wire.

Bombs Away:

#2 Unbridled's Note ML 20/1

Won his maiden on first calling, then got beat up in the Southwest (G3).  On the replay, it was just ugly, back break, traffic and then it was over.  He is making his third start for Asmussen and I like that Hill is on board.  His breeding say he can handle the distance, he got some good experience last out and and you can use the key race angle to a degree.  We don't know how good he is, and that makes him dangerous.

Selections:

8 - 7 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: Brigand and Night Tides Best Pals? Only Baffert knows ...

Before we start on Sundays feature race, would like to do a quick recap of the West Virginia Derby (G2).  Prayer for Relief had a beautiful trip and Bejarano placed him perfectly and took control at the right time.  I was impressed with Rush Now, like I said I gave him a long look, he showed a lot going on the lead and never folded trying to hold off Prayer for Relief. Dreamy Kid was a disappointment, not that he finished poorly but he never fired.  The concern was a regression off that big Swaps effort and today it happened.  Awesome Bet, my value play, seemed set nicely by Garcia but when he swung wide he checked up and then it was too late.  He did rush up but Pray for Relief had closed it out by then.

Race for Sunday,  August 7, 2011:  8^th Race at Del Mar, Best Pal Stakes ($150K) for 2YO’s going 6 1/2f on Synthetic.  I was taught a long time ago when handicapping 2YO’s its Pedigree, Trainer and workouts.   The good news is Pletcher is not here, the bad news is Baffert has two entries and Hollendorfer has one.  Pedigrees look solid and all have good workouts and seem fit and ready to go.  There appears to be one solid choice and several upsetter’s, but like all lightly raced 2 YO’s  you just never know.

Contenders:

1.       #7 Brigand (Baffert/G.Gomez):  2 races under his belt and finished 2^nd in the Hollywood Juvenile (G3) to Majestic City.  I watched the video and he looked strong making his move down the rail to take 2^nd from Night Tide, but by then Majestic City was long gone.  His connections paid $925,000 at the OBS 2YO sale, so you can imagine they have big plans for him.  Good Beyer's. Not sure of his pedigree but his G3 performance warrants him to be the favorite.

2.       #2 Creative Cause (Harrington/Bejarano): Broke his maiden in July by 4 1/2 lengths.  His sire is Giant Causeway, who is highly ranked for producing 2YO winners.   He brought $135,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling sale.  Some 2YO handicappers look for a horse that was sold for more than the published stud fee.  Giant Causeway fee is $85,000.  His speed numbers say he can stay with Brigand.  Two good workouts since winning.  Likes to go to the front and fits here, and could wire this field.

3.       #5 Galex (Hollendorfer/Talamo):  Has the same sire as Brigand, Flatter.   He sold at FTK October Yearling sale for $31,000 against stud fee of $7500.  He is shipping in from GG/PLN and last out finished 2^nd in a state bred stakes race.  He has two workouts at Del Mar and both were excellent.  I spotted him for several reasons:  Hollendorfer is one of the top 2YO trainers, consistent speed and a liberal “come and go” angle last out.  First call: 5^th 1 ¼  Second Call: 2^nd 1 ½ Third call: 4^th  4 ½ and finished 2^nd by 2 ¼.   

Dark Horses:  #4 Night Tides (Baffert/Garcia):  Finished 3^rd to Majestic City and Brigand in the Hollywood Park Juvenile (G3).  He set the pace and clipped nice fractions, but when challenged by Brigand and Majestic City, he let them go, didn’t see him dig in nor looked tired. It might have been a bounce from his maiden win, if so, he could surprise.  He is out of an excellent sire, Malibu Moon.   #1 I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Rosario):  This is an intriguing horse, his dam is out of Arch, who is a top 2YO sire.  Doug O’Neill brings his 2YO’s in ready to go, won his maiden with super Beyer’s, working well at Del Mar.  If I had to look for angle with this colt, it’s that Rosario is staying with him.  Rosario had ridden Brigand in the (G3) Juvenile and now passes up riding the favorite, with an almost certain payday for a second time starter.  Maybe something or maybe nothing but it’s interesting.  I didn’t have the ML for this race at the time of this writing, but if the price is right, #1 I’ll Have Another will be my value pick.

“Bombs Away”:  #3 Mighty Monsoon (Bonde/V. Espinoza):  This 2YO is out of Forestry and has 3 races to its resume and shipping in from GG/PLN.  Pedestrian speed figures and Galex finished ahead of him last out.  This is a trainer play, Bonde is known to bring in solid 2 YO’s to Del Mar, a bullet 4f workout and Espinoza is having a nice season.  

Final Selections:  7- 2 - 5 - 1

My blog is at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ and will be participating in the NHC/HorseTourney tomorrow. So everybody good luck and may all your tickets be cashed.