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Sunday, May 13, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Wait Til Dawn could surprise in the Selene @Woodbine

The Peter Pan (G2) turned out to be an interesting race yesterday.  Right To Vote took off and ran some blistering fractions and didn't quit.  Mark Valeski ran his race pressing the pace and then taking control from the outside at the eighth pole to win it.  Interestingly, Mark Valeski went off at 6/5 which isn't a bad price considering Teeth of the Dog scratched. I would have thought Mark Valeski would have dropped to even money or worse.  What did surprise is how Right To Vote got away at 47/1! He impressed me with his race, showed wow speed and grit deep into the stretch.  The early reports are he will be in the Dwyer and I think that distance of a mile and sixteenth will suit him better.

Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000.  It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.

Contenders:

#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5

We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly.  She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic.  Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready.  She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.

#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5

Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit.  Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair.  She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3.  We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route?  This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.

#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1

She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts.  Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous.  She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week.  Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1

It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing.  She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at  first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X.  This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time.  He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win.  She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.

Selections:

1 - 2 -3

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