We start July off with another sprint, this time up at Belmont for the Bed Of Roses (G3) for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The field of 10 will be going 7 Furlongs for a purse of $150,000. The field is a solid group of sprinters and I've found three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away. So let's see if we can start July like we did June ...
Contenders:
#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5
It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June. Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont). She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs. He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher. Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.
#2 Island Bound ML 7/2
She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90. What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall. Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board. Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands. She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.
#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1
This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to. The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Catinatree ML 10/1
Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx. Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses. Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle. She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it. If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.
Selections:
7 - 2 - 4
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Showing posts with label Stakes Races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stakes Races. Show all posts
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Big Day at Charles Town, The Red Legend Sprint
It's not often we get to look at a big purse sprint race like we do today at Charles Town. It's the 5th running of the 7 Furlong, Red Legend for 3YO's and the purse is a staggering $400,000! We have 10 entries, that includes Hansen, but while he may be the big name, he is not a lock by any means. Here we go ...
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Contenders:
#1 Il Villano ML 9/2
He is the early foot in this one and has the speed to wire it. Has raced will where ever he has been entered, hitting the board all 8 times, including 4 wins. His last two races brought in 99 - 98 Beyer's, has back to back bullet workouts and this race fits him perfectly. He is the definite come and catch me.
#3 Majestic City ML 8/1
He had a good 2YO campaign on the West Coast, winning his first 3 and then DQ'ed to third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. After that his connections stretched him out into routes, changed surfaces and went on the road. The results weren't so good and the shut him down. In his first 3YO he goes back to sprinting and on turf which is fine, but what I do like his he found his speed again, posting a 89 Beyer. Peter Miller does well with dirt sprinters and puts on Dunkelberger, which only helps. I look for him to really improve today.
#9 Flashy Dresser ML 5/1
Going to toss out that turf route at Churchill, and what you see is a lightly raced 3YO with 3 wins in a row. Won here in April at this distance in a $260K stakes race and I see no reason he doesn't bounce back today. He likes to rate off the pace, which might work to his favor and he gets the always tough Eddie Castro in the irons.
Dark Horse:
#7 Hansen ML 7/5
He is also entered at PRM today, so at this writing not sure where he will be. If he goes here, the cut back in distance certainly falls into his lap, and would go off with Il Villano and make it a two horse race. You can't ignore his pedigree and prior races before the debacle at Churchill. My only question does the layoff hurt and is this a warm up for bigger things later in the summer.
Bombs Away:
#6 Innocent Man ML 12/1
This lightly raced 3YO is turning back to what he does well, sprinting. Biancone had him on the right track until the route race at Monmouth, the Pegasus. Today we get some nice angles, back to sprinting, where he has shown strong Beyers and likes to go forward. Picks up Mario Gutierrez and blinkers for the first time. Add his bullet workout earlier in the week and he could really surprise us today.
Selection:
1 - 3 - 9
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Le Bernadin in Pegasus @Monmouth today
The Stephen Foster set up nicely for Ron the Greek yesterday. Nate's Mineshaft took off and several chased, while the pace wasn't blistering it was enough to put Ron the Greek in great position. Lezcano rode it perfectly by staying to the inside and took care of business when the opportunity opened up. Today, we head over to Monmouth Park for the Grade 3, Pegasus for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on dirt for a purse of $100,000. We have a field of 7 lightly raced 3YO's and due to the shorter field I will have the 3 contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.
Contenders:
#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1
Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades. I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win. Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons. He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time. He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.
#7 Good Morning Diva ML 3/1
He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance. Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth. Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.
#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1
Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race. We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's. Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today. Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1
Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden. Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses. McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.
Selection:
3 - 7 - 5
Contenders:
#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1
Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades. I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win. Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons. He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time. He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.
#7 Good Morning Diva ML 3/1
He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance. Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth. Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.
#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1
Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race. We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's. Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today. Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1
Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden. Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses. McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.
Selection:
3 - 7 - 5
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Loaded field for Foster @ Churchill
In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000. There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race. What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5
This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark). His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace. I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today. The one to beat.
#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1
Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south. He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned. He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win. Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.
#8 Alternation ML 4/1
It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2. The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53! He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.
Dark Horse:
#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1
The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace. He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down. He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside. He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.
Bombs Away:
#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1
He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill. He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.
Selections:
1a - 1 - 8
Contenders:
#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5
This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark). His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace. I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today. The one to beat.
#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1
Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south. He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned. He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win. Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.
#8 Alternation ML 4/1
It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2. The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53! He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.
Dark Horse:
#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1
The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace. He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down. He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside. He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.
Bombs Away:
#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1
He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill. He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.
Selections:
1a - 1 - 8
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Star's will shine in the Redondo today
Yesterday's Belmont turned out to be an exciting race, with Union Rags getting the rail to open and he took it to win. In watching the replay, I wasn't sure if it would open and he sure looked pinned in on the rail. Afterwards, Mike Smith took the blame for letting it open up and JohnnyV said they got lucky. No matter what, it was a good race, exciting and happy to see Union Rags back in form. The stakes schedule is quiet today, so I am going to take a look at the Redondo Beach turf race at Hollywood Park. It's a mile race for $70,000 for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards. There are eight ladies going forward, so I will have three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.
Contenders:
#7 All Star Heart ML 3/1
She will be making her 5YO debut in this feature race. Last season she won 5 of 7, including her last race the Las Palmas (G2). When you look at her PP's you see a tale of two horses here. Once she came under Ron McAnally tutleage, she ripped off those 5 wins going a mile on grass. Her Beyer's have been real consistent, she has won once here on the Hollywood turf and has won coming off the bench before. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and she looks well positioned to take this one.
#6 Star Billing ML 5/2
She too will be making her 2012 debut today as a 4YO. Her 3YO season resulted in winning 3 of 7, most of those races were graded affairs. She has won twice at this distance, the Senorita (G3) and the Matriarch (G1), both races came at Hollywood Park. The main reason I've have her in second today, is that in her last break from racing she came up empty at Keeneland. She has been gone for over 6 months and while her workouts look good and Sherreffs does will with layoffs, I think she'll need this one today to find her footing.
#5 A Jealous Woman ML 5/1
She had a great 3YO season winning 4 races, including 2 over the Hollywood grass. Since then she has not done much, winning only once in an Optional Claimer last February. The key angle here is the jockey switch to Bejarano by Meza and putting her back at a mile. She is 2 for 4 at this distance and on the board in all 4. It might be asking a lot today against the group, but she likes to race up front and that might be a difference maker.
Bombs Away:
#8 Good Karma (ITY) ML 12/1
The angle here with this 4YO filly is the following: shipping in and a new trainer in Cecil, jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and keeping her at a mile. We can see from her results in Italy, she does have talent and often with a change of scenery, especially California, horses like her wake up. It'll be interesting to watch regardless.
Contenders:
#7 All Star Heart ML 3/1
She will be making her 5YO debut in this feature race. Last season she won 5 of 7, including her last race the Las Palmas (G2). When you look at her PP's you see a tale of two horses here. Once she came under Ron McAnally tutleage, she ripped off those 5 wins going a mile on grass. Her Beyer's have been real consistent, she has won once here on the Hollywood turf and has won coming off the bench before. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and she looks well positioned to take this one.
#6 Star Billing ML 5/2
She too will be making her 2012 debut today as a 4YO. Her 3YO season resulted in winning 3 of 7, most of those races were graded affairs. She has won twice at this distance, the Senorita (G3) and the Matriarch (G1), both races came at Hollywood Park. The main reason I've have her in second today, is that in her last break from racing she came up empty at Keeneland. She has been gone for over 6 months and while her workouts look good and Sherreffs does will with layoffs, I think she'll need this one today to find her footing.
#5 A Jealous Woman ML 5/1
She had a great 3YO season winning 4 races, including 2 over the Hollywood grass. Since then she has not done much, winning only once in an Optional Claimer last February. The key angle here is the jockey switch to Bejarano by Meza and putting her back at a mile. She is 2 for 4 at this distance and on the board in all 4. It might be asking a lot today against the group, but she likes to race up front and that might be a difference maker.
Bombs Away:
#8 Good Karma (ITY) ML 12/1
The angle here with this 4YO filly is the following: shipping in and a new trainer in Cecil, jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and keeping her at a mile. We can see from her results in Italy, she does have talent and often with a change of scenery, especially California, horses like her wake up. It'll be interesting to watch regardless.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Union Rags to rebound in the Belmont
There is no doubt that there is a different aura around the Belmont today, than the excitement that had been building just 48 hours ago. In some circles the race today is just another G1 stakes race now that I'll Have Another had to be scratched. While I would have had him as my first selection, we all know how this race can change the course of racing history. It'll be an exciting race for the 11 entrants going a mile and a half for the million dollar purse. So let's dive in ...
Contenders:
#3 Union Rags ML 6/1
I'm going to toss out the Derby effort, he got off to a bad start and with a field of 20 you have no chance after that. He has won 4 of 7, including the G1, Champagne here at Belmont last year. He has been working well, back to back bullets, and Matz makes a jockey change, putting Velazquez in the irons. One final note, Union Rags has won both times when he has come back from a break. He is fit and ready and I think the added distance will help him today.
#5 Dullahan ML 5/1
He will be the favorite today and deserving of that honor. Like Union Rags, had a tough ride in the Derby but did close down well. His connections skipped the Preakness and pointed him to this race. He can handle the distance and has 2 G1 wins under his belt. His last workout was a bullet and looks ready to go. For me the big issue is the jockey switch. Normally I like that angle but in this case, I'm not so sure.
#10 Optimizer ML 20/1
I admit I like this Lukas trained 3YO. I've been waiting for him to find himself and repeat that great effort in the Rebel. If Nakatani can keep him from trouble, get him relaxed and turn him loose at the right time, he could fly by all of these boys. This is a race where I believe the distance favors him.
Dark Horse:
#9 Paynter ML 8/1
He will be making only his 5th start but he has been on the G1 stage before, finishing fourth in his second start in the Santa Anita Derby. His last 2 races he posted impressive Beyer's and will take the lead today. It might be asking a lot of him in this situation but you have to be wary of a Baffert/Mike Smith situation. Hard to ignore Bafferts record with winners last time of 29%.
Bombs Away:
#1 Street Life ML 12/1
Here is another lightly raced 3YO and his coming right back after a fine performance in the Peter Pan (G2) here at Belmont. He finished third in that race and improved his Beyer nicely. Chad Brown keeps Lezcano on board which is a good sign, has been working well and has one route race under his belt at Belmont. No doubt it will take a huge effort but if any pace occurs on the front end, he could kick it into gear and catch them.
Selections:
3 - 5 -10
Contenders:
#3 Union Rags ML 6/1
I'm going to toss out the Derby effort, he got off to a bad start and with a field of 20 you have no chance after that. He has won 4 of 7, including the G1, Champagne here at Belmont last year. He has been working well, back to back bullets, and Matz makes a jockey change, putting Velazquez in the irons. One final note, Union Rags has won both times when he has come back from a break. He is fit and ready and I think the added distance will help him today.
#5 Dullahan ML 5/1
He will be the favorite today and deserving of that honor. Like Union Rags, had a tough ride in the Derby but did close down well. His connections skipped the Preakness and pointed him to this race. He can handle the distance and has 2 G1 wins under his belt. His last workout was a bullet and looks ready to go. For me the big issue is the jockey switch. Normally I like that angle but in this case, I'm not so sure.
#10 Optimizer ML 20/1
I admit I like this Lukas trained 3YO. I've been waiting for him to find himself and repeat that great effort in the Rebel. If Nakatani can keep him from trouble, get him relaxed and turn him loose at the right time, he could fly by all of these boys. This is a race where I believe the distance favors him.
Dark Horse:
#9 Paynter ML 8/1
He will be making only his 5th start but he has been on the G1 stage before, finishing fourth in his second start in the Santa Anita Derby. His last 2 races he posted impressive Beyer's and will take the lead today. It might be asking a lot of him in this situation but you have to be wary of a Baffert/Mike Smith situation. Hard to ignore Bafferts record with winners last time of 29%.
Bombs Away:
#1 Street Life ML 12/1
Here is another lightly raced 3YO and his coming right back after a fine performance in the Peter Pan (G2) here at Belmont. He finished third in that race and improved his Beyer nicely. Chad Brown keeps Lezcano on board which is a good sign, has been working well and has one route race under his belt at Belmont. No doubt it will take a huge effort but if any pace occurs on the front end, he could kick it into gear and catch them.
Selections:
3 - 5 -10
Sunday, June 3, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Dixie Strike in the Woodbine Oaks
Today we head north to Woodbine for the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. It's for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the synthetic surface. Like yesterday in the Mint Julep, there is no real front end speed in this field of nine. In fact, what makes this a difficult race to handicap is that none of the ladies has gone this distance before. In doing the analysis I found three contenders but no dark horse, and of course the long shot play. So here goes ...
Contenders:
#6 Dixie Strike ML 6/5
She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router. Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive. She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners. The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her. It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.
#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season. The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races. Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons. Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late. She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.
#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2
The second of three Mark Casse entries. She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second. Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady. The issue is can she go two turns with this group? Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race. She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.
Bombs Away:
#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1
Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races. This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one. Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's. If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.
Selections:
6 - 7 - 4
Contenders:
#6 Dixie Strike ML 6/5
She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router. Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive. She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners. The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her. It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.
#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season. The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races. Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons. Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late. She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.
#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2
The second of three Mark Casse entries. She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second. Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady. The issue is can she go two turns with this group? Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race. She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.
Bombs Away:
#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1
Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races. This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one. Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's. If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.
Selections:
6 - 7 - 4
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Snow Top Mountain in the Mint Julep @ Chruchiill
Today we head down to Churchill Downs and will look at the 36th running of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap. It's a Grade 3 race for fillies and mares 3YO on turf going a mile and sixteenth for a purse of $100,000. Their are nine entered and as of this writing no scratches. There is no real front end speed in this bunch of ladies, most are stalkers or closer's, so it makes this race wide open. When all said and done the mare I keep coming back to is ...
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Contenders:
#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1
She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances. I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course. Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich. She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today. With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.
#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1
This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too. What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire. McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.
#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1
Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March. The reason I'll lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance. She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races. Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate. What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.
Dark Horse:
#2 Artemus Kitten ML 5/1
This is more of an angle play than anything. I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over). This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today. She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance. She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group. While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.
Selections:
8 - 1 - 3
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine
Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury. It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is $150,000. There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches. Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such. She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today. So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)
Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont. It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000. There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group. Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners. Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today
Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago. At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth. It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream
Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win. I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder. Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000. It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Nates Mineshaft for Nawlins Handicap at FG
I skipped the Florida Derby to look at the Orchid, and Hit It Rich got it done. She held her morning line at 3/1 and paid a nice $7.20 for her effort. I was also pleased to Aqsaam do well, holding place to a hard charging Keertana. It was a thrilling race! Today, we are going to the Fair Grounds, and will ignore the Louisiana Derby fora really difficult race, the New Orleans Handicap(G2). It's for 4YO+ going a mile and an eighth over the main course. The nine entrants are gunning for a $400,000 purse, and we see a lot of familiar faces. Right off the bat, I see six of them winning this race, it's that contentious. I'm going to write this one up differently, going to list my three contenders, then the next three possibles.
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1
Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds. He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer. He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem. He won't break from the gate at 10/1, but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.
#1 Nehro ML 6/1
He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races. He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle. I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here. He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.
#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1
Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one. This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel. Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire. He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.
Possibles:
#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2
He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race. He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry. My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today. I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can. But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.
#5 Redeemed ML 4/1
He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct. He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.
#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2
He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.
Selections:
3 - 1 - 4
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Handsome Mike in the Spiral at Turfway Today
Today we get another Derby contender race. There aren't many more opportunities for 3YO to get into the big one. I believe I read connections will need about $250,000 to make the eligible list, this race at Turfway Park will do that for the winner. We will take a look at the Sprial (G3) going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $500,000, again for 3YO. A big field 12 are going, and as of this writing no scratches.
Contenders:
#12 Handsome Mike ML 4/1
He won't be the favorite and not even sure he will be second in line, but I like this Doug O'Neill trained colt. It would appear that his best results have been on turf, winning his maiden and then a place finish in a G3. O'Neill took over at the end of his 2YO campaign and it looks like he is finding his footing. His Beyer's are consistent (86 - 88 - 87) and he has held his own against some tough 3YO, Secret Circle and Liaison. You have to like that Rosario is now on board, and with O'Neill that has been a 22% win record. If he runs anywhere near those Beyer's today, he should hold off this group. The only downside is the post, he likes to race up close, and it might be tough to get there early.
#7 Ill Conceived ML 8/1
This will our horse for course selection. I liked him in the Battaglia and he ran a strong place finish with a 83 Beyer. I know many discount him because he races a mid level tracks, but he is a tough knocker, and in these races they can find a way to win. The added distance will help, his running style fits the group, and Elliott now has one under his belt with him. He could make it interesting.
#3 Heavy Breathing ML 3/1
It wouldn't be a Derby hopeful race without a Pletcher entry. He is the morning line favorite and will probably go off as the favorite when the gates open. He has has two impressive wins at GP, and is making the normal progression for a Pletcher horse. Back to back 79's are solid and would expect an improvement today on his third start. Distance is no issue and likes to go forward. The key is how does he handle some of the more experienced 3YO's today? It will be a good test for him, and he certainly has the ability to win it.
Dark Horse:
#4 Went the Day ML 4/1
This will be his first outing since winning his maiden at GP. This is more of a trainer angle than anything else. When Graham Motion drops a horse in a Graded race off a maiden win, the intentions are not a prep race. He has shown he has the speed to run this distance and they are bringing him right back of that win. Velazquez is on board which is a plus, even though JohnnyV has been a bit off of late, maybe a change in scenery will be good. Not calling him a dangerous one, but if he stays off the pace a bit he might get his chance.
#11 Stealcase ML 10/1
Here is the dangerous 3YO. Took him a few tries before breaking his maiden, then Mark Casse drops him in the Gotham(G3) and runs into Hansen, and didn't break cleanly. The connections must be encouraged because he is right back running again. Blinkers on which is a fun angle, Casse has an excellent record these situations, and he changes up and puts Maragh on board. It would not surprise me to see him in the hunt at the end.
Bombs Away:
#10 Mr. Prankster ML 12/1
I'm a big Michael Maker fan, and to get one of his entries at 12/1 makes your mouth water. Here is another horse for course opportunity, he has won two of three over the TP synthetic. Has shown flashes of speed to compete at this level, and looks like he bounces well off those off tough races. Maker hits 28% on Synthetic and the kicker is he puts on red hot Rosie Napravnik. She'll lay him in the weeds and if the big guns beat each other up, he will be there for all the marbles.
Selections:
12 - 7 - 3
Contenders:
#12 Handsome Mike ML 4/1
He won't be the favorite and not even sure he will be second in line, but I like this Doug O'Neill trained colt. It would appear that his best results have been on turf, winning his maiden and then a place finish in a G3. O'Neill took over at the end of his 2YO campaign and it looks like he is finding his footing. His Beyer's are consistent (86 - 88 - 87) and he has held his own against some tough 3YO, Secret Circle and Liaison. You have to like that Rosario is now on board, and with O'Neill that has been a 22% win record. If he runs anywhere near those Beyer's today, he should hold off this group. The only downside is the post, he likes to race up close, and it might be tough to get there early.
#7 Ill Conceived ML 8/1
This will our horse for course selection. I liked him in the Battaglia and he ran a strong place finish with a 83 Beyer. I know many discount him because he races a mid level tracks, but he is a tough knocker, and in these races they can find a way to win. The added distance will help, his running style fits the group, and Elliott now has one under his belt with him. He could make it interesting.
#3 Heavy Breathing ML 3/1
It wouldn't be a Derby hopeful race without a Pletcher entry. He is the morning line favorite and will probably go off as the favorite when the gates open. He has has two impressive wins at GP, and is making the normal progression for a Pletcher horse. Back to back 79's are solid and would expect an improvement today on his third start. Distance is no issue and likes to go forward. The key is how does he handle some of the more experienced 3YO's today? It will be a good test for him, and he certainly has the ability to win it.
Dark Horse:
#4 Went the Day ML 4/1
This will be his first outing since winning his maiden at GP. This is more of a trainer angle than anything else. When Graham Motion drops a horse in a Graded race off a maiden win, the intentions are not a prep race. He has shown he has the speed to run this distance and they are bringing him right back of that win. Velazquez is on board which is a plus, even though JohnnyV has been a bit off of late, maybe a change in scenery will be good. Not calling him a dangerous one, but if he stays off the pace a bit he might get his chance.
#11 Stealcase ML 10/1
Here is the dangerous 3YO. Took him a few tries before breaking his maiden, then Mark Casse drops him in the Gotham(G3) and runs into Hansen, and didn't break cleanly. The connections must be encouraged because he is right back running again. Blinkers on which is a fun angle, Casse has an excellent record these situations, and he changes up and puts Maragh on board. It would not surprise me to see him in the hunt at the end.
Bombs Away:
#10 Mr. Prankster ML 12/1
I'm a big Michael Maker fan, and to get one of his entries at 12/1 makes your mouth water. Here is another horse for course opportunity, he has won two of three over the TP synthetic. Has shown flashes of speed to compete at this level, and looks like he bounces well off those off tough races. Maker hits 28% on Synthetic and the kicker is he puts on red hot Rosie Napravnik. She'll lay him in the weeds and if the big guns beat each other up, he will be there for all the marbles.
Selections:
12 - 7 - 3
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Romacaca looks like a Honey Fox @GP Today
Yesterday in the Rebel, I was happy to see the great performance by Optimizer. I remember when he broke his maiden at Saratoga and thought this horse was going to be something. He certainly has struggled, but yesterday he put on a great finish for place. He might not be a Derby contender, but he his going to be a solid 3YO.
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox. It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000. My favorite in this one is Romacaca. I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...
Contenders:
#3 Romacaca ML 4/1
Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two. Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level. Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP. I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.
#8 Future Generation(IRE) ML 3/1
It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America. She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start. Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.
#9 La Reine Lionne ML 5/1
She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP. She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving. The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons. She is another one that will be there at the end.
Dark Horse:
There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents. The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.
This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch. She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP. Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.
Bombs Away:
#5 Cumulonimble Ml 12/1
She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf. Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15. Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent. Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show. I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record. Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.
Selections:
3 - 8 - 9
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Ill Conceived to upset in Battaglia today
When I looked at the stakes races today, no doubt all the big action is at Aqueduct. However, I happen to like the favorites in each of those races. I can't see Hansen losing, and I'm a big fan of It's Tricky and Caleb Posse, so my view would be slanted. That leaves us with the Sam Battaglia Memorial $75,000 stakes race at Turfway Park. The track was closed yesterday due to bad weather, but as I write this the weather looks good for today, so I'm going to go ahead and analyze this event.
It's the 10th race on the card going a mile and sixteenth for 3YO. There is a field of five entered, and while they are not the highest ranked 3YO for the Derby trail, it's still a competitive race, in fact, maybe too competitive! When you look at it, I can see realistically four of the five winning it. So here are my top three picks ...
#2 Ill Conceived ML 7/2
This 3YO had a solid 2YO campaign by hitting the board five of six times with two wins. His last outing in a stakes race at Laurel was solid and has been working well. I like that his Beyer's have been improving over the last two outings, and looks like the added distance may help. The angle I'm playing here is a track switch coupled with a jockey change, and toss in a stretch out in distance.
#6 Mr. Prankster ML 9/5
He will be looking for his third in a row here at Turfway, his last two stakes wins ($50K). His Beyer's bumped up dramatically from a 78 to a 88 when he stretched out to a mile. You have to like the Michael Maker/McKee connection and the added distance should work well for this 3YO. He has shown he likes this track and has no problem going wide to win. The pace might be a touch quicker today, and that does make him vulnerable to his racing style.
#4 State of Play ML 2/1
This 3YO is ranked #60 at Horse Racing Nation for Derby Contenders and certainly deserves the favorite slot for this race. Hard to argue against this lightly race 3YO with a G2 win under his belt at this distance over turf. This will be his second effort over dirt, his last was at Tampa where he finished seventh in a G3 affair. He had a nice workout and Graham Motion puts the track leader, LeBron in the irons. It will be interesting to see if he bounces back or is he a more of a turf horse. One thing for sure, the price will be miserly.
I didn't include a dark horse or Bombs Away due to the small field, it is obvious the dark horse would be the #1 Dynamical entered by Mark Casse. Overall, I think this is going to be the best race of the day.
Selections:
2 - 6 - 4
One last note, I'm blogging Monday through Friday at the-clocker.blogspot.com/
It's the 10th race on the card going a mile and sixteenth for 3YO. There is a field of five entered, and while they are not the highest ranked 3YO for the Derby trail, it's still a competitive race, in fact, maybe too competitive! When you look at it, I can see realistically four of the five winning it. So here are my top three picks ...
#2 Ill Conceived ML 7/2
This 3YO had a solid 2YO campaign by hitting the board five of six times with two wins. His last outing in a stakes race at Laurel was solid and has been working well. I like that his Beyer's have been improving over the last two outings, and looks like the added distance may help. The angle I'm playing here is a track switch coupled with a jockey change, and toss in a stretch out in distance.
#6 Mr. Prankster ML 9/5
He will be looking for his third in a row here at Turfway, his last two stakes wins ($50K). His Beyer's bumped up dramatically from a 78 to a 88 when he stretched out to a mile. You have to like the Michael Maker/McKee connection and the added distance should work well for this 3YO. He has shown he likes this track and has no problem going wide to win. The pace might be a touch quicker today, and that does make him vulnerable to his racing style.
#4 State of Play ML 2/1
This 3YO is ranked #60 at Horse Racing Nation for Derby Contenders and certainly deserves the favorite slot for this race. Hard to argue against this lightly race 3YO with a G2 win under his belt at this distance over turf. This will be his second effort over dirt, his last was at Tampa where he finished seventh in a G3 affair. He had a nice workout and Graham Motion puts the track leader, LeBron in the irons. It will be interesting to see if he bounces back or is he a more of a turf horse. One thing for sure, the price will be miserly.
I didn't include a dark horse or Bombs Away due to the small field, it is obvious the dark horse would be the #1 Dynamical entered by Mark Casse. Overall, I think this is going to be the best race of the day.
Selections:
2 - 6 - 4
One last note, I'm blogging Monday through Friday at the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: It will be a Captivating Lass today at Aqueduct
Last weekend we didn’t fare too badly. We had our soft “Bombs Away”, Apriority win and pay a nice $7.20 and then on Sunday the 1st, CC’s Pal scored as we figured and paid $4.80. The nice result was in the Mr. Prospector with Zero Rate Policy finishing second. He had that race won but gave way at the last moment to Apriority. So today we stay at Aqueduct and will play a stakes race for 3YO fillies. It’s the 39th running of the Busanda for a purse of $100,000. This race is over the inner track going a mile and 70 yards on dirt. There are seven girls entered and all lightly raced, which makes it a wide open affair. So let’s take a look …
Contenders:
# 5 Captivating Lass ML 2/1
I’ll admit this is a gimmick pick to a degree. She won her first out going this distance at Parx handily. She came back in a G2 and had a wonky day. Now today McLaughlin pulls all the goodies out and uses Lasix for the first time, blinkers on and puts his hotshot rider (Luzzi) on board. This has all the makings of a big bounce back effort. Her last two workouts were solidand McLaughlin is having a nice season.
#1 Sweet Valentine ML 8/5
She has improved nicely in each of her three races (45-66-71) and ran tough in her first big stakes race. Motion puts on Dominguez which is good. So why do I have her second? Just a hunch truthfully, I’m not convinced of the distance. Breeding says no problem and Motion has good sprint to route success but just not feeling it with her today.
#7 Terralba ML 10/1
She is the most experienced of the lot and looked destined to be a career maiden. This is another hunch selection based on her effort over the inner track early in December. It was a sloppy day and her performance was horrible but she showed a strong effort over the dirt at Laurel right before the Aqueduct race. She posted a 70 off of a bobbled start. Shuman is a crafty trainer and does well in these situations. Alvarado is off to a good season and might make the difference with her.
Dark Horse:
#2 Winged Venus ML 12/1
This is one of those horses that might be still finding her upside. She won a maiden claiming second out going a mile. This is a big rise in class, but she might surprise us all. With lightly raced 3YO they are still learning the craft and finding themselves, Badgett keeps Montalvo in the irons and she has shown consistent speed. Not a dangerous entry but an interesting one.
Bombs Away:
#6 Almost a Valentine ML 20/1
I expect her odds to go stratospheric by post time. Shipping in from Charlestown where she won her second outing by 6 ½. Her speed fig’s don’t hold up against this crew of fillies but they did improve greatly. So you just don’t know. This is more of a breeding angle. Her sire was a G3 winning router and the dam has produced three dirt route winners, one of them being a G1 winner, Rigoletta.
Selections:
5 - 1 - 7
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