Horseplayers takes center stage

Article by Claire Novak for ESPN:
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/7502821/horseplayers-takes-center-stage

"All of us horse players are a little bit biased, but we don't feel we get attention we should, and we feel we're the lifeblood of the industry," she said. "I think that sometimes if the people who have won this competition were to be profiled, readers would have a completely different view of the modern horseplayer as opposed to the stereotypical degenerate." 

Good Luck to ALL,

-jp
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Three New HANA Members Join Board, Willing to Work For Horseplayers

Over the past nine months the Horseplayers Association of North America has been searching for passionate horseplayers to join the Board of Directors.  Through member emailings, newsletters, social media, a nominating committee and our website, three candidates emerged with a racing background, who were willing to do the work that’s needed to help change our sport for the better. Please welcome Bob, Mike and Jerod aboard. And as always, if you'd like to work with us, we need you as State Reps or board members. Please email info@hanaweb.org if you'd like to help.

Bob Dwyer is a Chicago area resident, CPA and business management professional who has had a long and successful career managing manufacturing and distribution companies that were in the portfolios of private equity firms as CFO, COO and CEO. The same attributes of focus and discipline that he brings to organizations in his professional activities serve him well in his long time and passionate avocation of horse racing. Bob served as the HANA Illinois state representative for the last 18 months.

Mike Shutty is the Co-founder and Managing Partner of www.horseracingnation.com and www.derbywars.com and has been a raving fan of the Sport of Kings since Seattle Slew captured the Triple Crown in 1977. Mike is also the Co-founder and Managing Partner for TrendPointers, LLC, a firm focused on using Media Sentiment to predict key shifts in economic and market outcomes. He owned a successful direct marketing agency which he sold in 2007 and brings that experience to help advance the important initiatives of HANA.

Jerod Dinkin is a Director of Real Estate at a Fortune 500 retailer and has been a fan of thoroughbred horse racing since the age of eleven. A frequent contributor to Horseplayer Magazine, Jerod was also the 2006 Canterbury Park Handicapper of the Year and a three time qualifier to both the National Handicapping Championship and the Horse Player World Series.

We thank Bob, Mike and Jerod for answering the call. If you'd like to chat with any or all of them, they can be reached by emailing their first name (except Mike, he's mshutty), followed by @hanaweb.org

Weekend Handicapping: A Sweet Chant for Ready Signal at Gulfstream today

The Lecomte turned out to be what the form should us it would be, wide open.  It was a tough race to handicap due to all the angles that each horse brought into the race.  Mr. Bowling, our second selection, probably exhibited the most.  Coming in off a layoff, key race factor, good trainer in Graded Stakes and a jockey switch.  If you added up all the angles for each horse, I have a feeling Mr. Bowling had the most.  He ran a good race and scored a nice payday for the effort.

Today we move back to Gulfstream for the 10^th race.   The 19^th running of the Sweetest Chant for 3YO fillies on the turf going a mile.  A purse of $100,000 is out there for the nine entrants.  This race is not as wide open as yesterday affair at the Fair Grounds; in fact, we have five returnees from the Ginger Brew we handicapped back on Christmas Eve. 

Contenders:

#1  Ready Signal ML 6/1

This was our Bombs Away selection in the Ginger Brew and finished second to Frolics Revenge.   She took the lead in that race after breaking from the 12 slot and almost hung on to win.  Today she is cutting back in distance, getting a favorable post position and I like that Amy Tarrant is bringing her back right away.   It looks like this filly is hitting her stride.

#9 Dayatthespa  ML 5/2

She is making her first start since November after a miserable effort in the Breeder’s Cup.  There is little doubt that she has speed to take this crowd, likes to get out front at this distance.  The only concern is the layoff, Chad Brown has a good record with layoff horses, but the #1 and #5 are in a nice groove.  If she’s ready then she could easily run away with it.

#5  Frolic’s Revenge ML 5/1

I ignored this filly in the Ginger Brew because she had no turf record, and she proved me wrong with a great effort to win it from Ready Signal.  The two issues I have today, is did that last effort  out take too much out of her and not happy to see Paco Lopez not riding.  Nothing wrong with Lezcano and I could be over analyzing it but coupled with never having won two in a row, not sure it’s her day. 

Dark Horse:     

                                                                                                                                                            

#2  Wholelottashakin ML 8/1

This is another filly out of the Ginger Brew who had some trouble getting pinched off at the start.  This is an instinct play, feeling the cut back in distance plays to her speed, Bush and Solis have to be respected and with the improving speed figures of this lightly raced filly, she should be in the hunt at the end. I see a lot of upside and Bush has a killer turf record.

  

Bombs Away:

#7  Slews Exchange ML 10/1

She won her last start here at GP in a sprint turf event, posting a respectable 74 Beyer.  Stretching out for the first time and bumping up in class could be a big wall.  What makes her dangerous though is that Plesa is a sharpshooter with these kind of horses, workouts have been good and he makes a big change here and gives JohnnyV the reins.  One last thing she has the ability to fight through difficult circumstances and that tells me she is a tough one.

Selections:

1 – 9 – 5   

Weekend Handicapping: A Terrors Hammer nails the Lecomte at FG today

Our streak was finally broken last Sunday when Private Jet won his first time start in the US.  The racing gods got even with me, on Saturday I extol the virtues of a first time European starter in Mutual Trust and then on Sunday ignore Private Jet.  The truth is I don’t know much about South African horses or tracks and his results didn’t look nearly as good at Mutual Trust.  A lesson learned? Or that’s horse racing.  Today we move over to the Fair Grounds and will look at the 68^th running of the Lecomte (G3).  It’s the 11 race on the card, for 3YO going a mile and 70 over dirt.  There are 11 entered for the purse of $175,000 and it’s a strong field of lightly raced three year olds.  This is race is difficult because there are so many nice horses to choose from and many are real close in record and Beyer’s.  Bottom line the tote dictates the play.  So here we go …

Contenders:

#8  Hammers Terror ML 6/1

He has won two in a row and the last being here at FG at this distance.  Beyer’s are solid and consistent.  There are two other factors I like, one being some key races of past opponents and really strong workouts.  I have done well with Stidham in the past and respect him greatly.  He has also shown he can get to the front and dig in.  With a large field getting up to the front is critical.

#4  Mr. Bowling ML 8/1

This colt has been off since October after holding onto 3^rd in a G3 at Churchill.  He is another horse that has shown consistent speed, likes to run near the front and also has key races from past competitors.  Larry Jones does well in Graded Stakes events and I like that he has Albarado on board. 

#5  Exfactor  ML 5/1

Here is the pure speed in the group with Beyer’s in the low 80’s.  He won the Surgar Bowl ($58K) here in December and can jump to the front and not look back.  Has three wins in a row coming into the race and has won a G3 event.  The only reason he is not on top is this is his first route.  I don’t see anything in his breeding or training that would prevent him to go this distance, but with his front end tendencies he could get burned up.  I would like to see one first but with that speed hard to ignore.  If the price is right would be real tempted.

Dark Horses:

Not trying to be funny but I could say honestly the rest of the field.  There is a case to be made for #2, #2b, #6, #1a, #10, #11.  Of all of them I would lean to the #11 Shared Property ML 4/1.  Toss out the last and you a real strong 2YO winning the Arlington Washington G3.  He likes go come off the back end and has shown can handle traffic and all.  Here is another if the price is right, would be hard to pass up.

Bomb’s Away:

#3  Ted’s Folly  ML 10/1

Hard to pass up on one with a winning streak of six!  Good consistent speed to run with this group, shown that he can route, and is stretching out a bit today.  The glaring concern is class and running style.  He likes to lay off and close, but this time he isn’t in Oklahoma.  He is interesting and could be real surprise; Medina stays with him which I find interesting.

Selections:

8 – 4 – 5

Weekend Handicapping: Little Nick and Great Attack fight it out at GP today

Yesterday in the Fort Lauderdale I had expected the crowd to wager Silver Medallion to a favorite.  Was I wrong as the herd went with Mutual Trust as I did.  I had the 4YO colt as the dark horse selection, and after some hard knocking down the stretch he prevailed and paid a nice $9.80 to win.  He did a great job against older horses and has to say “job well done.”   Today we will stay at Gulfstream and on turf for the Gulfstream Park Sprint for $60,000 for 4YO and upward going 5 panels.  A field of seven has joined the fray and it looks like on paper a two horse race.  So don’t blink this one will be over in a flash, so let’s take a look …

Contenders:

#1  Little Nick ML 5/2

He has back to back wins with strong Beyer’s (100 -90) over this distance and on the grass.  His record last year was real good winning three of seven and having only one bad race all season.   Quartarolo doesn’t have a huge barn but makes good with what he has, and Little Nick is one tough turf sprinter.  Will get to the front and never look back with Paco Lopez staying in the Irons.  This will be a duel with Great Attack, and really don’t see anyone catching them.  I’ll take recent winner, rail, Paco as the winning angle.

#6  Great Attack ML 2/1

This 5YO didn’t have the greatest 4YO season but was racing in some high class events. He showed himself well in the BC Turf Sprint after bobbling.   He has the speed and running style to go with Little Nick and you can’t ignore Wesley Ward especially in turf sprints and layoffs.  The #6 does have the class edge I think and it gets down to which one get’s the better price, that’s how close it really is.

#4  Madman Diaries  ML 4/1

The second horse Ward is fielding today and ran well against Little Nick back on December 21^st at Tampa.  His Beyer’s are good but not quite up to the two front runners, but he is a lightly raced 4YO with only 9 trips to the gate.  Sanchez stays with Great Attack as expected, and Madman Diaries picks up an excellent jockey in Trujillo.  The Ward/Trujillo combination was deadly at Monmouth last season, so this switch while saying nothing, could be the push for the #4 to get better.

Dark Horse:

#3  Marquet Cat ML 8/1

I can’t look the other way on a tough knocking claimer.  His last outing a month ago won a $50,000 claimer right here over the GP turf.  He popped a nice 90 Beyer and has shown flashes of running faster, and Servis is a sneaky good trainer.  The 7yo is rising in class today and will have to run the wheels off to stay with the top two, but you have to respect him. 

Bombs Away:

#2 Wekiva Wachee ML 8/1

On paper he looks overmatched here, even with a nice effort against Little Nick and Madman Diaries back in December at Tampa.  Here is another 7YO grinder that shows those moments of speed and gets the job done.  This time the front end is a bit too fast and with his running style he will be in tough.  It’s one of those picks where you have to hope something goes wrong up front for him to clear the wreckage and win it.  Definitely believe he can grab a spot on the board. He gets Castanon again, the last time they worked together; they won a claiming event at Arlington.  You all know by now, I like jockey angles.

Selections:

1 – 6 – 4  

Weekend Handicapping: Is GP Teaks North new best friend?

We got off to a great start last weekend, capped off by R Holiday Mood winning in a dead heat and paying $12.40.  I watched that race and she made a nice run down the rail, thought for sure she had it all to herself, but like many of my selections, they seem to get nailed at the wire.  No complaints with a DH win and a handsome payday.   Today we will stay at Gulfstream and look at the  Fort Lauderdale (G3) turf race going a mile and a sixteenth for 4YO and upward.  We have a big field, several with good G1 performances, a first time import and some dirt to turf plays.  What that all means another tough race, and a good winning price should be in the making.  So here goes …

Contenders:

#5  Mutual Trust ML 3/1

This was a hard selection to make, because I do like Teaks North a great deal.  However, I have to go with the angle of a good graded winner from GB going out the first time.  Granted all four wins in France were for a mile, but adding a bit more should not change anything.  You have Bill Mott training her and he has a respectable record with these kind of situations.  Add in Jose Lezcano who won 25% with Mott last year and you have a dangerous mix.  If we can get a square price this is the play.

#7  Teaks North ML 8/1

My heart says this is the one, I have always liked this gelding and if it wasn’t for the import angle he would be on top.  He has had great performances in the past winning at the G1 level; good Beyer’s on turf and has even beaten Stacelita.    I like his racing style of staying near the front and then taking command and one more thing he has won on the Gulfstream turf.  Here is the one thing about Teaks North he tends to be a horse for courses.  He was a killer at Monmouth does his past victory here spell another course for him to dominate?  I do like his chances and if betting at this price it would be my play.

#4  Yummy With Butter  ML 10/1

Here is another one of those horses for courses, having done well at Monmouth on the grass.  What I see in the #4 is a horse that had to strong G3 wins then went north and got himself on a yielding turf going maybe a bit too long.  Then after a brief layoff he does a dirt sprint and now we see the classic trainer play of bringing him back to a grass route.  Belsoeur has a respectable record in these situations and puts Paco Lopez back in the irons.  One thing I learned in watching Paco at Monmouth, he is one of the best at riding in the weeds.  If #4 is fit and ready, he could surprise.

Dark Horse:

#10  Silver Medallion  ML  4/1

He could end up being the favorite in this race.  It is hard to pass on a Pletcher trained G3 winner last out posting its best Beyer of96.  So what’s the issue?  I have a suspicion that he doesn’t hold his form all that long. His record while impressive seems to me to be roller coaster like and not sure if he can string another strong performance.  But due to his good record and recent race, have to consider him.  My thinking is the price will be too paltry.

Bombs Away:

#8  Flat Out ML 6/1

I don’t often go with a first time on turf entry, I always like to see one and his breeding for grass shows that he can make the switch.  But you can’t ignore this horse that has won five of fourteen, a G1 and G2 over longer distances and post multiple 100 Beyer’s. Dickey and Solis are a tough combination and if he gets forgotten in the wagering could be a huge surprise.  He is one of those plays you have to listen to your instincts.   It’ll be interesting to see how he fairs.

Selections:

5 – 7 – 4

Italian Racing "Effectively Bankrupt"

The Guardian Newspaper, January 8, 2012:

"The future of horse racing in Italy appears to hang in the balance as protesters are set to target the government in Rome this week in an attempt to secure increased funding for the sport.

"The betting model, through which money comes back to racing, is broken, and it is effectively bankrupt. As it stands, every race that is run is being run at a loss. Nobody in Italy has any money at the moment and the new minister has already made it clear that there will be nothing more for the sport."

For some background take a look at this from a July 9, 2008 article at ESPN.com:

"Caprilli Racecourse seems to offer the perfect escape for any American racing fan grown jaded or a bit beaten down by our game's current woes. It's a placid little seaside track in Livorno, Italy that may not offer the best racing but compensates for its shortcomings with its quaintness, its history (it's more than 100 years old) and its atmosphere. Last Thursday's crowd was on the small side, but there were hundreds of young people in attendance, who were, no doubt, attracted by the late post 8:50 p.m.), and everyone seemed to be having a good time. I was among them."

The problem is, too many Italian gamblers are choosing to bet on something other than horse racing. The takeout in Italy is exorbitant, as much as 40 percent on the trio, which is the Italian version of our trifecta. According to Barsotti, it wasn't always this way, but Italian racing regulators have decided to allow major increases in the takeout rate over the years.

Too many gamblers are going broke, which has created smaller betting pools. With smaller betting pools, it's hard to make a large bet. Anyone wanting to make a big wager on a horse will drive the horse's price down to unacceptable levels. That has caused big bettors to flee the game, which makes the pools smaller yet. It's an unending cycle."

Weekend Handicapping: Holiday Mood for the Ocala today at GP

Captivating Lass started the weekend off on a good note.  She had an excellent race and Luzzi rode her perfectly taking the win and paying a nice $5.80 on a $2 ticket.  Today we head down to Gulfstream and take a look at a minor stakes race for state bred fillies and mares, 4YO.  It’ll be the 10^th race on the card, the 6^th running of the Ocala for a purse of $60,000.  Seven girls have entered for this one mile dirt affair, and there is plenty of speed in this one and that always make it difficult.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them go wire to wire today.  So let’s see if we can score a double this weekend.

Contenders:

#2  R Holiday Mood  ML 6/1

This lightly raced 4YO has won three of six, and has shown versatility by winning routes and sprints.  She has been off for awhile after a dismal race in the Jostle at Parx.  She has shown she can win coming off a layoff and hard to go against Pletcher and JohnnyV.  There are others in this race with stronger Beyer’s but going with her ability to improve.  She is one of them that can go to the front and never look back.

#7  Sweet Repent  ML 3/1

It’s hard to ignore this 6YO.  She has posted some monster Beyer’s in her day, has won over ten races and one here at GP.  Distance is no issue and came off the bench in November to finish second in a $150,000 handicap over at Calder.  Braddy is an excellent trainer and she has won twice coming off a layoff.  If she is ready, she will come off the pace and nail them. 

#4  All Due Respect ML 2/1

She will be the favorite in this race and it is deserved.  Dutrow brings her back to Gulfstream where she won the Ocala ($60K) back in March.  He had taken the 5YO over from Kathy Walsh and won at first try.  After that she got moved around and still placed well in two G2 events.  Has the speed to blow this field away and Castellano is back in the irons.   She has won coming off layoffs and has had two bullet works at GP.  Only reason I have her in the show spot is price.

Dark Horse:

#3  Delightful Mary   ML 4/1

Here is another lightly raced 4YO who shows promise but still is inconsistent.   She has won four of seven lifetime and hit the board in six.  She shows flashes of speed to be competitive with these girls and did well in the 2010 BC Juvenile, finishing 3^rd.   She doesn’t have a lot of experience on dirt; most of her success has been on synthetic.  She is one of those dangerous ones.

  

Bombs Away:

#6  Tourmaline  ML 12/1

Had a nice 3YO campaign winning four of ten, and seems to do well where ever she races.  Her speed has been improving and winning at this distance will be no problem.  The big issue is class.  All of her wins have come at minor or second level tracks and has taken down some big purses.  Rhone is a sneaky trainer, has excellent stats and does well with surface switches.  He keeps Butler on board which tells me something.  If you are lukewarm on this field, then this is the play.

Selections:

2 – 7 – 4 

Weekend Handicapping: It will be a Captivating Lass today at Aqueduct

Last weekend we didn’t fare too badly.  We had our soft “Bombs Away”,  Apriority win and pay a nice $7.20 and then on Sunday the 1^st, CC’s Pal scored as we figured and paid $4.80.  The nice result was in the Mr. Prospector with Zero Rate Policy finishing second.  He had that race won but gave way at the last moment to Apriority.  So today we stay at Aqueduct and will play a stakes race for 3YO fillies.  It’s the 39^th running of the Busanda for a purse of $100,000.  This race is over the inner track going a mile and 70 yards on dirt.  There are seven girls entered and all lightly raced, which makes it a wide open affair. So let’s take a look …

Contenders:

# 5 Captivating Lass ML 2/1

I’ll admit this is a gimmick pick to a degree.  She won her first out going this distance at Parx handily.  She came back in a G2 and had a wonky day.  Now today McLaughlin pulls all the goodies out and uses Lasix for the first time, blinkers on and puts his hotshot rider (Luzzi) on board.  This has all the makings of a big bounce back effort.  Her last two workouts were solidand McLaughlin is having a nice season.

#1  Sweet Valentine ML 8/5

She has improved nicely in each of her three races (45-66-71) and ran tough in her first big stakes race.  Motion puts on Dominguez which is good.  So why do I have her second?  Just a hunch truthfully,  I’m not convinced of the distance.  Breeding says no problem and Motion has good sprint to route success but just not feeling it with her today.

#7  Terralba ML 10/1

She is the most experienced of the lot and looked destined to be a career maiden.  This is another hunch selection based on her effort over the inner track early in December.  It was a sloppy day and her performance was horrible but she showed a strong effort over the dirt at Laurel right before the Aqueduct race.  She posted a 70 off of a bobbled start.  Shuman is a crafty trainer and does well in these situations.   Alvarado is off to a good season and might make the difference with her.

Dark Horse:

#2  Winged Venus ML 12/1

This is one of those horses that might be still finding her upside.  She won a maiden claiming second out going a mile.  This is a big rise in class, but she might surprise us all.  With lightly raced 3YO they are still learning the craft and finding themselves, Badgett keeps Montalvo in the irons and she has shown consistent speed.  Not a dangerous entry but an interesting one.

Bombs Away:

#6  Almost a Valentine ML 20/1

I expect her odds to go stratospheric by post time.  Shipping in from Charlestown where she won her second outing by 6 ½.  Her speed fig’s don’t hold up against this crew of fillies but they did improve greatly.  So you just don’t know.  This is more of a breeding angle.  Her sire was a G3 winning router and the dam has produced three dirt route winners, one of them being a G1 winner, Rigoletta.

Selections:

5 - 1 - 7

Weekend Handicapping: One Last Dance in the Ladies at Aqueduct

Before we look at today’s race, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year!  We finished the year with our soft “Bombs Away” Apriority winning the Mr. Prospector and paid $7.20.  I’m also pleased how well Zero Rate Policy ran, almost held on to win it.  We will start the New Year off by heading up to Aqueduct and look at one of the oldest handicap races around.  It’s the 141^st running of the Ladies Handicap for 3YO fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth over the always tough inner track for a purse of $75,000.  We have only six entered so I will review the contenders and the one Bombs Away.  

Contenders:

#3  One Last Dance ML 6/1

There is no doubt the #1 CC’s Pal should be in this spot, but with a morning line of 8/5 and knowing she will played heavily, I had to go to the upset factor.   This lightly raced 4YO looks poised to break out and show us how good she really can be.  She won her last over the inner track in a route going away, her Beyer’s are progressing and I believe Dale Romans has found the perfect spot for her today.  She is coming right back off that win, and that spells fit and ready.

#1  CC’s Pal ML 8/5

She is tough to go against, Dutrow trained and on a nice streak since he took over.  She also won her last outing on the inner track, albeit a sprint, but there is no denying her speed and how she likes to stay to the front.  Her Beyer’s of 91-85-91 make her extremely tough for this group to overhaul, she has the speed to go wire to wire.  Dutrow had a great 2011 season, especially in the stakes area, brings Alvarado right back on her (where they have been winning 45% together).   I can’t argue against her, just don’t like the value.

#5  Katy Now ML 7/5

This race is almost looking totally chalk, I have to admit these three really stick out on the form.   This is a tough 5YO with the Pletcher/Dominquez connection.  Won at Belmont two back in the Dispute and made a decent showing in the G2 Go For Wand here at Aqueduct in November.  In that raced she got bumped at the start and came out wide and showed her toughness, by staying close and didn’t pack it in.  Her Beyer’s are right there to win this race and have to call her the dangerous one, but the price value isn’t going to be there.

Bombs Away:

#2  Karmageddon ML 10/1

She looks to be a totally a horse for courses play at Monmouth. I’m going to hang my hat on her last win, which was a route in a $60,000 handicap (it was against state breds) and she popped a 81 Beyer.  Then she ran in a $100K at Suffolk and finished a strong 3^rd after a slow start, posting an improving Beyer of 85.  The winner of that race has come back to win again, so using the key race angle here.  She has been off since October and has had decent workouts over the inner track.  She could be finding herself at 5 and ready for a big race. 

Selections:

3 – 1 – 5   

Weekend Handicapping: No candy for the Candyman today at GP

I hope all had a wonderful and fun filled holiday.  Today is it, the last day of racing for 2011, and we are going to spend it at Gulfstream Park.  It will be a nice sunny day for a competitive Grade 3 sprint, the Mr. Prospector for 3YO and upwards running for a purse of $100,000.  A field of seven has entered and there is plenty of front end speed to contend with.  After looking them over I can see several claiming victory today, I don’t see any clear cut favorites, it’s that wide open.  So here we go …

#4  Indiano ML 3/1

He has won three of his last four, all at Calder, including a Grade 2 event.  Strong consistent Beyer’s and has hit the board 11 of 12 times.  He likes to rate a smidge off the pace and with several here going to the front, the pace might set up perfectly for him.  He has raced against some good horses in the past; several have gone on to win.  He has all the ability to take this group.

#2  Zero Rate Policy ML 6/1

If there is one horse that can get the jump and run away it will be Zero Rate Policy.  Won nicely here three weeks ago in a $60K stakes race, and has won two of three lifetime here at GP (including his maiden).  Pompay is a dangerous trainer and with Paco Lopez staying in the irons makes him even tougher.  The only reason I don’t have him in the top spot is that his Beyer’s are a bit lower than the #4.

#5  Immortal Eyes ML 6/1

This is one tough knocking gelding and you can’t ignore him in this spot.  He has raced well wherever they have taken him.  Solid Beyer’s at all the tracks, last out was on a “good” surface so will discount it.  James Toner takes over and he has a decent record with first timers (his ROI is a staggering $5.37), and puts on Lezcano.  He is another one that can get to the front and run off with it, should be interesting.

Dark Horse:

#6  The Hunk ML 10/1

Many would say he should be the “Bombs Away” but I have feeling money will move to him.  He is moving up in class after winning four in a row (moved through his classifications nicely) and poised to take on his first graded effort.  You can’t ignore Ben Perkins connecting with Elvis Trujillo, 23% winning record together.  He likes to go to the front, and the only weakness is does he have the speed to stay with the top contenders?  His breeding say’s there is still some upside and today will give him that opportunity.

Bombs Away:

#1 Apriority ML 4/1

Those odds say are you crazy?  I have a feeling he will get ignored today at the tote.  This 4YO has become an enigma for us handicappers.  During the winter and summer he was having a nice season, winning two of five (the other three were place finishes), 100+ Beyer’s in each race, and had nice efforts in a G1 and G2.  Then it all fell apart, an uneven race at Saratoga, off to graze and two ugly results since.  He has faced much tougher and has the class edge, but I wonder about his confidence going forward.  I respect David Fawkes and he has put Saez back on top, which might be the answer.  If he is back on track watch out, otherwise we could be watching a horse that peaked too soon.

Note:   Some will ask why I don’t have the #3 Capt. Candyman Can in the mix.  He is an excellent 5YO and has proven himself at all levels he has competed in.  The issue I have is that he has not won at the 6f level, his wins have been at longer distances.  He is a closer and has shown he doesn’t get there in time in the shorter races.  If this was 7 panels or a mile, he would be the top dog, not saying he can’t win, but the speed burners in this mix will be long gone before he wakes up.

Selections:

4 – 2 – 5

Happy New Year!! And make a safe one. 

Crist Adds His Name to the Chorus

As you know, slots have entered various jurisdictions with almost all of the proceeds going to purses (and some capital improvements, mostly for horsepeople). This has not helped handles, as witnessed by the massive betting losses since slots have been introduced in the mid-1990's.

Recently we highlighted several bettors and fans who have asked NYRA to use some of the slots money for customers, and customer cultivation.  This was even before the recent NYRA takeout snafu.

Steve Crist today in the DRF seems to add his name to that list:

"The new Aqueduct racino is providing NYRA with as much as $100 million a year for purses and capital improvements, and some slice of that should be redirected to the public in the form of lower takeout. NYRA can finally afford it, and the crumbling of the state’s OTB system removes a major impediment to enacting it.
A short-term remedy to an error should not be mistaken for long-term reform."

We agree with Mr. Crist. NYRA looking to approach a blended takeout lower than Kentucky (a state without slots) should be a long term goal.

A Tale of Two Cities

"IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."

The above quote is from the novel A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens, published 1859.

I thought it might be nice to present you the horseplayer with a contrast of two cities (racing jurisdictions) this Holiday Season.

CAL Racing

Monday was opening day at Santa Anita. Despite perfect weather and Monday being a Federal Holiday, all sources handle was up just 7% vs. opening day the year before. By way of contrast, all sources handle for last year's 2010 opening day card was down 21% when compared to the opening day card for 2009 - largely because of bad publicity resulting from news of the takeout increase masterminded by the TOC and the CHRB.

Last year, CHRB commissioner David Israel was quoted in several articles by the racing press as saying: 

“We’re in the entertainment business. We are competing with the Dodgers and the Giants and the Angels and the Lakers and we’re putting on a show…” 

Quotes like the one above, coupled with player reaction to the takeout increase resulted in a Cal Racing public relations nightmare. Year over year all sources handle for California thoroughbred racing fell off sharply – to the tune of approximately a quarter billion dollars for calendar year 2011.

There was at least one positive to come out of this. Last spring, representatives from HANA met with leadership from Track Management and the TOC. Among the changes we suggested to them was a 14% takeout Players Pick5. They listened and the new wager was first implemented at Hollywood Park. Needless to say, the new reduced takeout wager has been very well received by players. Last week, on Hollywood Park’s closing day card, the 14% takeout Players Pick 5 pool reached a record $1.2 million dollars.

NYRA

Just when you think you’ve seen it all, when you are absolutely certain every possible facet about the game that could possibly present itself has - a story breaks that makes you shake your head in utter disbelief.

NYRA overcharges bettors $8.6M, will lower takeouts to correct error:

Questions:

Does any horseplayer on the planet really believe claims that NY takeout law is so impossibly complex that it took over a year to discover that the betting public was being charged more than takeout rates allowed by law?

How is the on track bettor (who was underpaid on winning exotic tickets) supposed to be made whole by the NYRA plan to right this wrong?

Is the NY Attorney General going to look into this?

On 12-21-2011, NYRA issued a statement about the issue on their website:

The headline from the above linked to statement reads:

NYRA Lowers Takeout on Exotics

Putting questions aside about whether or not intent to fleece the public existed - or whether this was a case of oversight - Whoever wrote the above headline is no dummy. It’s a safe bet the words “NYRA Lowers Takeout on Exotics” were crafted in hopes NYRA can avoid the kind of handle debacle CAL Racing experienced as a direct result of poor decision making by the TOC and CHRB.

On December 9, 2011, Richard Eng penned an article for the Las Vegas Review Journal calling for NYRA to lower takeout. Eng titled his piece Casino could position NYRA to lower takeout, grow business:

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/casino-could-position-nyra-to-lower-takeout-grow-business-135308658.html

Eng’s article makes some valid points. Now that NYRA has actually lowered takeout (said tongue in cheek because I doubt this is the takeout reduction Eng was calling for) it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward.

A Tale of Two Cities: CAL Racing vs. NYRA
 

If you are planning to play either CAL Racing or NYRA this Holiday Season, here’s what your takeout landscape looks like:

               Takeout Rates 
Wager           CAL    NYRA
-------------  ------   -----
WPS            15.43    16.00
EXA            22.68    18.50
DBL            22.68    18.50
TRI            23.68    24.00
PICK3          23.68    24.00
PICK4          23.68    24.00
PICK5          14.00     N/A
PICK6          23.68   16.00 non carryover days
                                 24.00 carryover days

"IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."

 --Charles Dickens, 1859

We at HANA would like to wish all horseplayers everywhere a Joyous and Happy Holiday Season and a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year.

Jeff Platt

President, HANA

Weekend Handicapping: Surprises galore in the Ginger Brew today at GP

Before we dive into Weekend Handicapping, I would like to wish all the readers of the HANA blog site a Happy Holiday.  I hope it’s a fun filled weekend of family and good times.  One note, there is no racing tomorrow, so there will be no Weekend Handicapping. 

Now for Christmas Eve, there is only one stakes race on the calendar and it is at Gulfstream Park.  It’s a turf race going a mile and a sixteenth for 2YO fillies.  It’s the first running of the Ginger Brew and has a purse of $60,000, and 13 fillies are entered.  As of this writing, no scratches have been noted.  This is a wide open race; there are no clear cut favorites so price will be the name of the game

. 

Contenders:

#7  Almusafa  ML 6/1

Won its debut over on turf going this distance, that in itself is quite accomplishment.  Her Beyer was nothing to write home about, but I expect coming right back she will improve. McLaughlin is strong in these events and has had a solid 2YO campaign.  There appears to be plenty of upside and will take a shot on her getting better.  Having Lezcano today only increases her chances.

#9  Sinister Brew ML 6/1

This filly has seven races under her belt and has won two.  Her last outing was her first turf affair and won a $100k stakes race over at Calder.  My only concern is if she has been over raced, there seems to be some form issues over the dirt and the last one was against state breds.  Can’t ignore her, and Trujillo is aboard, and he is always tough on the grass.

#8  Karlovy Vary ML 7/2

Probably should be the second choice but not sure if she will bounce back from that ugly race at the G2 level on dirt.  With 2YO’s I worry about confidence issues and it puzzles me when connections have what appears to be a solid turf horse and then stick them in a high class race on a different surface.  Now we have to wonder about her chances here.  In her first two turf races showed solid improvement in her Beyer’s (72-77) and Arnold is solid with 2YO’s.  You can’t knock the breeding, but just feeling lukewarm on her today.

Dark Horses:

#4  Welcome Dance ML 5/1

You could say the whole field is dark horses but I’ve picked two and the #4 looks ready to make her move.  She has won 2 of 3 over the turf, including her debut at this distance at the Spa.  While Matz doesn’t have the strongest stakes record, he is consistent all across the board and brings Bravo to ride her today.  Her Beyer’s are consistent and she bounced back nicely after the bad race in the Natalma at Woodbine.  I wouldn’t be surprised me to see her take it.

#10  Spirited Miss ML 10/1

First three efforts were over the turf at Woodbine and she showed herself to be a tough filly. Winning her debut in a sprint and then making a good effort in the Natalma with a  4^th.   Then her last two outings were over the synthetic/dirt.  Again I scratch my head.  You can’t ignore her turf breeding; Mark Casse has an excellent record with 2YO’s and stakes races.  He brings Contreras back, were they have a 23% winning combination.  She is the dangerous one today.

“Bombs Away”

#13  Ready Signal ML 20/1

In her first turf start she won going a mile at Belmont.  Her workouts have been excellent and this is strictly a trainer angle.  Amy Tarrant doesn’t run a big string, but her success can’t be ignored.  This filly cost a lot of money, $190,000, and I’m thinking with her last outing a victory on turf they might have found the magic with her.  What is interesting is that on dirt she was a mid pack runner, but on turf a  wire to wire at a mile.  Her Beyer in that race was pedestrian but she might be finding her grass legs, watch out.

Selections:

7 – 8 – 9     

Portland Meadows With a Sneaky Takeout..... Reduction?

We caught a note today that Portland Meadows looks to be trying to emulate Tampa Bay Downs. The Florida track (with little fanfare up until two years ago) has been lowering takeout each year with some good results. Well, Portland Meadows has cut the takeout on two horse exotic wagers by 1% to 21% this year, and did it very quietly.

Usually tracks try and sneak an increase on customers, not the other way around! Put Portland Meadows on your watch list.

In other news, starting New Years Day Turfway Park has lowered their Pick 4 takeout to 14% (matching Portland Meadows who also offer a 14% pick 4 as of two seasons ago).

If you cash an ex or DD at Portland or a Pick 4 at Turfway over the holidays, there's a little extra in your stocking.

Note: We'll have more on the NYRA story in the coming week. We wanted to share some good news today instead. Have a happy holidays everyone!