Weekend Handicapping: Loaded field for Foster @ Churchill

In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.  It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000.  There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race.  What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it.  So here we go ...

Contenders:

#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5

This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark).  His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace.  I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today.  The one to beat.

#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1

Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south.  He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned.  He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win.  Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.

#8 Alternation ML 4/1

It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2.  The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53!  He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.

Dark Horse:

#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1

The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace.  He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down.  He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside.  He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.

Bombs Away:

#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1

He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill.  He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.

Selections:

1a - 1 - 8    

Weekend Handicapping: Snow Top Mountain in the Mint Julep @ Chruchiill

Today we head down to Churchill Downs and will look at the 36th running of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap.  It's a Grade 3 race for fillies and mares 3YO on turf going a mile and sixteenth for a purse of $100,000.  Their are nine entered and as of this writing no scratches. There is no real front end speed in this bunch of ladies, most are stalkers or closer's, so it makes this race wide open.  When all said and done the mare I keep coming back to is ...

Contenders:

#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1

She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances.  I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course.  Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich.  She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today.  With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.

#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1

This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too.  What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire.  McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.  

#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1

Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March.  The reason I'll  lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance.  She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races.  Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate.  What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.

Dark Horse:

#2 Artemus Kitten  ML 5/1

This is more of an angle play than anything.  I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over).  This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today.  She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.

Bombs Away:

#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1

This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance.  She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group.  While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.

Selections:

8 - 1 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: Derby Day for Gemologist

The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner.  Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen.  So let’s dive in ….

Contenders:

#15 Gemologist ML 6/1

He is five for five and seems to get better in every race.  Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance.  His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants.  Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him.  You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.   

#14 Hansen ML 10/1

When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question.   He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him.   But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets.  Michael Maker has him primed and ready.

#4 Union Rags ML 9/2

After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three.  What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back.  His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance.  The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside.  Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.

Dark Horse:

#11 Alpha ML 15/1

Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today.  The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh.  Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load?  If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch. 

#5 Dullahan ML 8/1

Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race.  Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth.   He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush.  He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.

Bombs Away:

#2 Optimizer ML 50/1

I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga.  Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential.  Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous.   His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him.  If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them.  When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done.  If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.  

Selections:  15 - 14 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Tajaaweed poised to take the River City today at Churchill

For this Weekend Handicapping,  I’m going to take us back to Churchill Downs.  There is an interesting turf race today, the 34^th running of the River City Handicap, Grade 3.  It’s for 3YO and upwards going a mile and an eighth for a purse of a $100,000.  There is a good field of 8, and all different pace styles, a real mix back of older horses trying to find their class level and one or two moving up.

Contenders:

#8  Tajaaweed ML 9/5

I normally stay away from closers; they have broken my heart so many times especially in turf affairs.  This time I believe the pace favors him, there are three horses here will go to the front and the speed will not be in the class of Gio Ponti, Cape Blanco et al.  I find it interesting the Peitz makes a jockey change and puts Castanon aboard, I like those angles.  He has the class for this group having won at this level and his Beyer’s are right up there.   He just has to get into the mix a bit earlier and close them down.

#3 Gleam of Hope ML 6/1

I’ve been hitting some up and comers in the place hole the last couple of weeks and this is another one that looks he might find his way back.  This will be this 4YO third race under Michael Stidham who does well on turf and graded stakes races.  He has won at this level in the past and at a longer distance (dirt). Consistent Beyer’s and a good pace style for this group.   They two past races coupled with nice work outs give me the impression Stidham might have this gelding in perfect form and ready to surprise.

#6 Blues Street ML 2/1

If this 7YO can find his 5YO level he will run away from this field.  Proven winner at both the G3 and G2 levels has won easily at this distance and has shown top end Beyer’s that would dominate this field. Kenneally has him going for the second time since taking over from Pletcher and not quite sure of his form cycle.  His last outing was a tough one and not sure if he is back in good form after that pounding in the Baruch.  I could be way off here but think he needs some time away for freshening.

Bombs Away:

#4 Bergerac ML 12/1

I have a soft spot for the moving up in class play. This 4YO has had a decent season winning 2 of 9 and being on the board 5 other times.  Won last out on dirt going a mile and sixteenth and will be go long for the first time.  Breeding suggest this should be no problem, and his Beyer’s have been real consistent showing good form.  He likes to race forwardly and if his stamina is there might take it. Baker is a good trainer in these situations, winning 12% at the graded stakes level, and he doesn’t enter many.   Lastly, while I don’t normally look at this with much credence he does get a significant weight drop down to 114.

Selections:

8 – 3 – 6  

Weekend Handicapping: Ravi's Song in The Cardinal today

There is only one word to describe the Breeders Cup yesterday: WOW!  I’m not a historian of the Breeders Cup but when was the last time there were that many double digit payoffs?  Court Vision winning the TVG Breeders Cup Mile(T) and paying $131.40 and then Drosselmeyer taking down the Classic with a sweet return of $31.60.  Speaking of Drosselmeyer, while I didn’t have him in my mix yesterday, I had one of those funny handicapping sensations about him.  Have any of you while handicapping, ignore a horse that your eyes keep returning to? Instead of figuring out how he can win you think of no way he can win.  I did that with Drosselmeyer yesterday.  Several times as I was fine tuning the top 6, my eyes wander over to him, I kept say now way.  Then watching TVG and hearing Paul Lo Duca say “Drosselmeyer won his maiden here at CD, and started on the “horses for courses”,  I knew Drosselmeyer was going to win.  One hint on Lo Duca, when he spots a “horse for a course” pay attention, he had Teaks North in the United Nations based on that angle.

   

So today we suffer from a Breeders Cup hangover but there is an interesting race on the card at Churchill this fine Sunday.  Today’s Weekend Handicapping will be the 38^th running of The Cardinal Handicap Grade 3 for fillies and mares, going 1 1/8 miles over the turf course.  Purse is $100,000 with a field of 7.

Contenders:

#3  Ravi’s Song ML 3/1

His last two races have been over the turf in G3 events, posting back to back seconds.  In each race his Beyer’s paired nicely (94 – 93).  His first turf effort was here at Churchill losing by a nose.  He is a deep stretch runner and don’t see why he can’t return to winning form with this group.

#5 Tapitsfly ML 3/1

Toss out the dirt effort in the Spinster (G1) and you a real solid filly here.  Last two turf efforts at the Spa were good, one being a G2, improving Beyer’s and Albarado looks like the right jockey for her.  Can’t dismiss Romans strong stats here, the only question did the Spinster mess her form up.

#6 Deluxe ML 5/2

She will be making her 3^rd start of her 4YO campaign and fully expect Bill Mott will have her ready to go.  Not sure why they took that big leap from  $80K stakes race (finishing 2^nd) to the Flower Bowl (G1), where she got clobbered.  She has a great pedigree, decent efforts over in France and with Leparoux in the saddle, she might get squared away and surprise us.

I’m skipping the Dark Horses today, since I consider the rest of the field to just that, dark horses.

Bombs Away:

#4 Kiss Mine ML 10/1

This 5YO is a total “horses for courses” angle.  Has raced on the turf 8 times here at CD and has won two, finishing in the money four other times.  She has flashed 90 Beyer’s three times in her career and get’s Prado today.  With a weight break and back on a course she likes, she could find her way home in this crowd.

Selections:

3 – 5 – 6

I’ll be posting the tonight’s $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections at Balmoral Park at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Flat Out in BCClassic or So You Think

After last weekend’s wash out at Belmont, I though it fitting to handicap the The Breeders Cup Classic.  This is one of the toughest races to work, so many wonderful horses, all are winners and in my opinion it is wide open.  It is the 11^th race on a huge card today, it goes the classic distance of a mile and a quarter for 3YO and upward and the purse is $5,000,000.  Good luck, and sure many will disagree with me today, it’s that crazy of a field of 13.  One more thing, speaking of big fields, that means anything can go wrong, bad trips, stuck on the outside, checked back etc.  So an almost perfect trip is necessary to win it.

Contenders:

#2  Flat Out ML 6/1

This 5YO is not the obvious choice but his recent Beyer’s are the strongest and most consistent.  He is coming off a G1 at Belmont at this distance on a muddy track.  What was impressive that he was pulling away from Drosselmeyer and Stay Thirsty, two fine entrants today.   He has won 2 of his last 4 and it appears since Solis has been riding him he has gotten real consistent.  Hard to pass here.

#5  So You Think(NZ) ML 5/1   

He has won 12 of 15 over in Europe and all on turf.  Normally, I would shy away but with his strong G1 record overseas it is hard to ignore him.  He is comfortable with this distance and has won some big events.  He has won over $7,000,000 and that earns him respect, surface change or not.  He get’s lasix for the first time and that is an interesting angle plus O’Brien is a crafty trainer.

#10 Harve de Grace ML 3/1

This is one tough knocking filly and has every chance to win this event.  Her speed figures are right there and we know she is winner and a fighter.  So why 3^rd?  My reasons might sound like I’m nit picking but she has not won at this distance, two seconds but each time she gave way, also last year in the BC Ladies Classic she faded on this surface.  I know she beat Flat Out in the Woodward (G1) and she posted a huge 111 Beyer, but not sure with a larger group of tough boys, can she find her way home again.

Dark Horses:

#8  Game On Dude ML 10/1

One of my favorites.  We know he can win at this distance and a great effort last out at Santa Anita.  He likes to get out in front and that is a good thing in big fields.  The trouble with this 4YO is he is a bouncer with his speed last out at 102 and had to fight off Awesome Gem to win it, the bounce pattern looks likely. I would really enjoy seeing him get consistent and win this one. This is my play for today.  

#9 Stay Thirsty ML 12/1

It seems a bit bizarre to have to great horses as dark horses at double digit morning lines.  I’m going to toss out the last at Belmont due to muddy track.  He has done okay on off surfaces but not really his best efforts. At the Spa won back to back G1 going this distance and has posted 100+ Beyer’s three straight.  He will go forward with Game On Dude and we should see some interesting pace. The only issue with him is he a Saratoga “horses for courses” or can he finally show us he can win elsewhere?

Bombs Away:

We have a lot of front pace in this race.  That can open the door for a closer if that pace get’s out of hand.  In that situation I like #4 Ruler On Ice ML 30/1.  Since the Belmont he has done little until last out in the Pennsylvania Derby(G2).  His speed picked upped and he got up late to finish second, most would say so what?  Well, what I see is a horse that might be coming back into form, the Gomez switch seemed to help. Lastly, there is no pressure on him to win.  All the attention will be on the others, and they can just race their race, toss in two bullet works and you have a recipe for a nice long shot here.

Selections:

2 – 5 – 10