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Sunday, July 1, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Bed Of Roses at Belmont

We start July off with another sprint, this time up at Belmont for the Bed Of Roses (G3) for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards.  The field of 10 will be going 7 Furlongs for a purse of $150,000.  The field is a solid group of sprinters and I've found three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away.  So let's see if we can start July like we did June ...

Contenders:

#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5

It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June.  Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont).  She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs.  He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher.  Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.

#2 Island Bound ML 7/2

She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90.  What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall.  Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board.  Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands.  She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.

#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1

This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal.  Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to.  The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#6 Catinatree ML 10/1

Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx.  Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses.  Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle.  She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it.  If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.

Selections:

7 - 2 - 4

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