Weekend Handicapping: Stay Thirsty in the Suburban @Belmont

Today we have one of the premiere races at Belmont, the Grade 2, Suburban Handicap. It's for 3 YO's and upward and usually attracts a solid field, and today is no different.  There are seven entered, five of them are strong contenders for the purse of $350,000.  They will be running over the dirt for a mile and an eighth, there is a good balance of speed and stalkers, so that will make this race come down at the wire.  So let's take a look ...

Contenders:

#1 Stay Thirsty ML 7/2

Going out on a limb with him since he has never won at Belmont on four attempts( three of them were on off tracks).  However, what I do like is that he usually gives a big performance after his first race off a layoff.  He has won at this distance before, been training steadily, and has the class to win this race.  We know Pletcher/Castellano are a strong team and his pressing style sets him perfectly for this pace.

#7 To Honor and Serve ML 9/5

Mott certainly has him ready for this race with his third in the Metropolitan at the end of May. His Beyer's are super strong, workouts have been excellent and no doubt likes Belmont, winning two of three. Also, he is three of five at this distance.  The only reason I've got him in the place spot is that there is enough speed here to push him and open the door for Stay Thirsty.  He has all the tools to win this race, the odds will be miserly, but counting on the pace to work against him.

#4 Hymn Book ML 6/1

He has flattened out in the last two since turning six.  However, this gelding enjoys this track and distance, including a win here at this distance.  He is also versatile, winning on turf, off tracks and various distances.  That is what makes him so dangerous, and he is one of the closer's in this group. If the pace falters, and Stay Thirsty can't hold up, he should fly by. McGaughey puts Garcia back on, and with a 29% stakes win record, Hymn Book is one not to ignore.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#5 Trickmeister ML 6/1

If you toss out the poor effort in the Donn (G1), this five year old is six for six.  He has gone wire to wire at this distance and won his first outing at Belmont in May. Granted the company is not to this level, but Dutrow is dangerous with these type of horses.  His drills have been steady and he has shown he can fly, and with his bounce back in the last race, he is showing the maturity to take another shot at this level.  If he can get better than 6/1 he would be a sweet play.

Selections:

1 - 7 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Two horse race in the Mother Goose, maybe!

So far this month we have gotten off to a good start, three winners in four races, and one dark horse selection coming through.  However, that could end today at Belmont in the Mother Goose (G1).  It looks like a two horse race on paper, and will probably be so if you can figure out which one will win it.  The Mother Goose is for 3YO fillies going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt track.  The purse is for $300,000 and we have a small field  of five.  With that there will be only three contenders today.

Contenders:

#2 Contested ML 7/5

She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont.  Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out.  She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire.  Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.

#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5

Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer.  Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud.  She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races.  If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.

#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1

It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second.  She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies.  What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace.  If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail.  She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.  

Selection:

2 - 1 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: Le Bernadin in Pegasus @Monmouth today

The Stephen Foster set up nicely for Ron the Greek yesterday.  Nate's Mineshaft took off and several chased, while the pace wasn't blistering it was enough to put Ron the Greek in great position. Lezcano rode it perfectly by staying to the inside and took care of business when the opportunity opened up.  Today, we head over to Monmouth Park for the Grade 3, Pegasus for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on dirt for a purse of $100,000.  We have a field of 7 lightly raced 3YO's and due to the shorter field I will have the 3 contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.

Contenders:

#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1

Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades.  I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win.  Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons.  He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time.  He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.

#7  Good Morning Diva ML 3/1

He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance.  Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth.  Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.

#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1

Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race.  We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's.  Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today.  Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.


Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1

Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden.  Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses.  McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.

Selection:
3 - 7 - 5

Weekend Handicapping: Loaded field for Foster @ Churchill

In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.  It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000.  There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race.  What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it.  So here we go ...

Contenders:

#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5

This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark).  His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace.  I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today.  The one to beat.

#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1

Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south.  He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned.  He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win.  Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.

#8 Alternation ML 4/1

It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2.  The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53!  He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.

Dark Horse:

#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1

The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace.  He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down.  He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside.  He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.

Bombs Away:

#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1

He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill.  He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.

Selections:

1a - 1 - 8    

Weekend Handicapping: Union Rags to rebound in the Belmont

There is no doubt that there is a different aura around the Belmont today, than the excitement that had been building just 48 hours ago.  In some circles the race today is just another G1 stakes race now that I'll Have Another had to be scratched.  While I would have had him as my first selection, we all know how this race can change the course of racing history.  It'll be an exciting race for the 11 entrants going a mile and a half for the million dollar purse.  So let's dive in ...

Contenders:

#3 Union Rags ML 6/1

I'm going  to toss out the Derby effort, he got off to a bad start and with a field of 20 you have no chance after that.  He has won 4 of 7, including the G1, Champagne here at Belmont last year.  He has been working well, back to back bullets, and Matz makes a jockey change, putting Velazquez in the irons.  One final note, Union Rags has won both times when he has come back from a break.  He is fit and ready and I think the added distance will help him today.

#5 Dullahan ML 5/1

He will be the favorite today and deserving of that honor.  Like Union Rags, had a tough ride in the Derby but did close down well.  His connections skipped the Preakness and pointed him to this race.  He can handle the distance and has 2 G1 wins under his belt.  His last workout was a bullet and looks ready to go.  For me the big issue is the jockey switch.  Normally I like that angle but in this case, I'm not so sure.

#10 Optimizer ML 20/1

I admit I like this Lukas trained 3YO. I've been waiting for him to find himself and repeat that great effort in the Rebel. If Nakatani can keep him from trouble, get him relaxed and turn him loose at the right time, he could fly by all of these boys.  This is a race where I believe the distance favors him.  

Dark Horse:

#9 Paynter ML 8/1

He will be making only his 5th start but he has been on the G1 stage before, finishing fourth in his second start in the Santa Anita Derby.  His last 2 races he posted impressive Beyer's and will take the lead today.  It might be asking a lot of him in this situation but you have to be wary of a Baffert/Mike Smith situation. Hard to ignore Bafferts record with winners last time of 29%.

Bombs Away:

#1 Street Life ML 12/1

Here is another lightly raced 3YO and his coming right back after a fine performance in the Peter Pan (G2) here at Belmont. He finished third in that race and improved his Beyer nicely.  Chad Brown keeps Lezcano on board which is a good sign, has been working well and has one route race under his belt at Belmont. No doubt it will take a huge effort but if any pace occurs on the front end,  he could kick it into gear and catch them.

Selections:

3 - 5 -10

Weekend Handicapping: Dixie Strike in the Woodbine Oaks

Today we head north to Woodbine for the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks. It's for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the synthetic surface.  Like yesterday in the Mint Julep, there is no real front end speed in this field of nine.  In fact, what makes this a difficult race to handicap is that none of the ladies has gone this distance before. In doing the analysis I found three contenders but no dark horse, and of course the long shot play. So here goes ...

Contenders:

#6  Dixie Strike ML 6/5

She is the obvious selection in this race and a proven router.  Her last outing in the Selene (G3) was impressive.  She has won three of five at Woodbine and four of eight lifetime, and Casse wins 20% with recent winners.  The question today can she stretch out and do the extra sixteenth? Her running style of stalking says she can and Husbands really knows how to ride her.  It's hard to pass up a Casse/Husband winner (27% winning combination), and I think she has it in her to do it today.

#7 Rose and Shine ML 8/1

This filly has beaten Dixie Strike twice and finished a distant second to her in the Ontario Lassie to finish off the 2YO season.  The angles for this filly is that she showed a nice improvement in her second go as a 3YO and Biamonte wins 21% in stakes races.  Her workouts have been steady and Biamonte puts Moreno in the irons.  Moreno has won 20% in routes and has been on a nice winning streak of late.  She likes to loom closer up than Dixie Strike which might work with the pace in this race.

#4 Northern Passion ML 5/2

The second of three Mark Casse entries.  She likes the Woodbine synthetic, winning two of three and one second.  Her Beyer's have been strong throughout, toss out the two turf races and she is one tough lady.  The issue is can she go two turns with this group?  Contreras likes her chances and her workouts have been ripping strong. Her only route race was in the BC Juvenile at CD and it was her worse effort lifetime. Even in the Fury($150) she wasn't pulling away down the stretch and that makes her vulnerable to the closer's/stalker's in this race.  She will be in the hunt at the end just not convinced she will hit the wire first.

Bombs Away:

#9 Horseshoe Hill ML 20/1

Took her five tries before breaking her maiden, but has shown steady improvement in each of her races.  This is a big step up for her today but like her pedigree at this distance and her 6F workout was a good one.  Doyle puts on Stein who hits the board 42% and brings in big mutual's.  If she doesn't do it for you, then look at the #5 Black Bird Rock ML 12/1.

Selections:

6 - 7 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Wait Til Dawn could surprise in the Selene @Woodbine

The Peter Pan (G2) turned out to be an interesting race yesterday.  Right To Vote took off and ran some blistering fractions and didn't quit.  Mark Valeski ran his race pressing the pace and then taking control from the outside at the eighth pole to win it.  Interestingly, Mark Valeski went off at 6/5 which isn't a bad price considering Teeth of the Dog scratched. I would have thought Mark Valeski would have dropped to even money or worse.  What did surprise is how Right To Vote got away at 47/1! He impressed me with his race, showed wow speed and grit deep into the stretch.  The early reports are he will be in the Dwyer and I think that distance of a mile and sixteenth will suit him better.

Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000.  It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.

Contenders:

#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5

We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly.  She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic.  Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready.  She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.

#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5

Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit.  Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair.  She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3.  We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route?  This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.

#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1

She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts.  Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous.  She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week.  Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1

It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing.  She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at  first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X.  This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time.  He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win.  She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.

Selections:

1 - 2 -3

Weekend Handicapping: Derby Day for Gemologist

The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner.  Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen.  So let’s dive in ….

Contenders:

#15 Gemologist ML 6/1

He is five for five and seems to get better in every race.  Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance.  His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants.  Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him.  You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.   

#14 Hansen ML 10/1

When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question.   He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him.   But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets.  Michael Maker has him primed and ready.

#4 Union Rags ML 9/2

After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three.  What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back.  His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance.  The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside.  Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.

Dark Horse:

#11 Alpha ML 15/1

Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today.  The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh.  Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load?  If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch. 

#5 Dullahan ML 8/1

Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race.  Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth.   He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush.  He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.

Bombs Away:

#2 Optimizer ML 50/1

I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga.  Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential.  Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous.   His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him.  If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them.  When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done.  If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.  

Selections:  15 - 14 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)

Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont.  It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000.  There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group.  Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners.  Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.

Contenders:

#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2

I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races.  He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs.  Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons.  His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.

#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5

Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him.  He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.

#5  Marylin's Buy ML 6/1

He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct.  He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today.  His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#7  Bold Deed ML 12/1

He is taking a big step up in class today.  He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire.  Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good.  His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.

Selections:

1 - 6 - 5












 

Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today

Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago.  At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards.  There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth.  It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...

Contenders:

#7  Arena Elvira ML 4/1

This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance.  She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today.  Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins.  Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed.  I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.

#4  Juanita ML 7/2

She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds.  Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth.  As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle.  Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities.  She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.

#5  Love and Pride ML 5/1

This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga.  She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second.  Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored.  The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.

Dark Horse:

#3 Beloveda ML 9/2

Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting  improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler.  So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is.  She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.

Bombs Away:

#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1

Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again.  He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level.  He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board.  She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal.  What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.

Selections:

7 - 4 - 5




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