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Monday, December 31, 2012

Charles Town Handle Trends Positively

Despite a slight drop in field size (from 8.53 to 8.33 horses per race), Charles Town was able to outperform the industry trend in 2012 with an increase in all-source handle of 5%. This capped a strong 2012 where Charles Town had a record handle year, with $1M averaged for the first time in their 79 year history.

Charles Town announced a takeout decrease in September, 2011:

Takeout for trifectas, superfectas, pick threes, and pick fours will shift from 25% to 22% effective Sept. 17.

They've also been very responsive to giving out their signal to everyone. There are very few advance deposit wagering sites where you cannot bet Charles Town.

Distribute the signal, work on takeout, and promote your track and bettors tend to give you a chance.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Thanks to Everyone Who Worked So Hard at HANA Harness .....





Horse Rescue United Recipient of Contest Donations

(Allentown - December 28, 2012) – Horse Rescue United (HRU) is pleased to announce they are the recipient of donations as a result of this year’s The Pen vs. The Chip Handicapping Challenge sponsored by the Hambletonian Society, Meadowlands Racetrack, Tioga Downs, and Vernon Downs.  

 The Pen vs. The Chip Handicapping Challenge, organized by the Horse Players Association of North America (HANA) Harness Division, was a season long competition where handicappers using computer programs (The Chips) and handicappers using pens and programs (The Pens) competed against each other handicapping over sixty race cards at various standardbred tracks in North America on The Road to the Breeders Crown.  Each handicapper competing represented horse rescues who are primarily involved in standardbreds which are used in harness racing.  While various rescues in Canada and the United States were beneficiaries throughout the contest, HRU was the recipient of the grand prize thanks to Mark McKelvie, one of ‘The Pen’ handicappers being the overall contest winner.

“Just being one of the standardbred rescues selected to be represented by the handicappers was a great honor for Horse Rescue United as it is recognition of the work HRU does”, stated HRU President Anouk Busch, “We would like to thank the sponsors for making donations to advance the work of standardbred rescue, HANA for running the event, and of course Mark McKelvie whose handicapping skills made it possible for HRU to be the lucky recipient.  These donations will assist HRU in rescuing and retraining retired standardbreds”.

Horse Rescue United Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit charity located in Allentown/Chesterfield, NJ dedicated to the rescue, evaluation and retraining of horses.  While HRU does rescue horses of all breeds, the majority of horses rescued are standardbreds.  For further information about Horse Rescue United, please visit HRU’s website at www.horserescueunited.org.
-30-

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

More Tax Change Notes

We'll continue to follow this, but for now, Steve Zorn summarizes what these tax changes may mean for horseplayers here.

It's a detailed, common sense look at the changes and what they mean for an everyday player.

A must read.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Tax Changes Could Be Costly For Horseplayers

Today on the NTRA website:

 "Congress and President Obama have recently proposed capping or otherwise limiting itemized deductions in an effort to raise revenue for the U.S. government. Some horseplayers may be negatively impacted if they are unable to fully deduct pari-mutuel wagering losses as itemized deductions."




Wednesday, December 5, 2012

A Harness Track & Its Horsemen Go Transparent

A whole new view for horseracing fans

Drivers asked to explain their performance, good and bad; unparalleled transparency brought to Chicago racing

MELROSE PARK, IL – The Illinois Harness Horseman’s Association (IHHA) this Friday, will unveil unprecedented between-race interviews that promise to revolutionize the way that fans handicap and understand harness racing in Chicago.

“I hope racing fans tune in to the Maywood Park signal on Friday,” said IHHA President David McCaffrey. “There are no other horseman’s associations or racetracks going behind the scenes like we are, doing immediate post-race interviews with drivers and trainers.”

The IHHA board decided during the summer to pursue post-race interviews with drivers in order to help fans understand why drivers make certain decisions on the track and to explain extraordinary circumstances.

“If a horse is the favorite to win a race and he races terribly and finishes last, I think fans want to know what’s going on,” said McCaffrey. “It could be something as simple as a piece of paper in the track that spooks a horse and causes him to break stride or a knee boot that comes loose and impedes the horse’s gait. Either way, the fans deserve an explanation.”

By bringing the drivers into the living room, the IHHA hopes that the public will become more engaged and will use the interviews when they handicap races. The board also hopes that the interviews will bring more transparency to the sport. To that end, fans will eventually be able to submit questions via Facebook and Twitter.

“There are a lot of factors on the track,” said IHHA board member and driver Marcus Miller. “A driver might get boxed in or there could be an equipment malfunction. Drivers make mistakes sometimes too. But the public needs an explanation. We need them to know that we’re honest out there.”

The concept is similar to what fans of other sports are accustomed to seeing in post-game interviews. Jeremey Day will be conducting the post race interviews. Day is co-host of the North American Harness Update and a Daily Racing Form Harness handicapper for Balmoral Racetrack. Drivers will be asked about their performance on the track and given the chance to explain what happened.

“We want to address the questionable parts of the race,” said Day. “If a driver’s strategy seems questionable or there was an equipment malfunction, we’re going to look at the replay and talk about what happened on the track.”

For the past month, the IHHA has been conducting generic interviews with trainers and drivers. A collection of these interviews can be found on the Illinois Harness Horseman’s Association YouTube channel. IHHA board member Bernie Paul said that these interviews will be different.

“These aren’t going to be fluff interviews. We want the tough questions,” said Paul. “We ask NFL quarterbacks about why they threw an interception or ran a specific play. Racing fans deserve that same kind of transparency.”

The first driver interviews will be conducted on Friday, December 7th at Maywood Park.

“Fans are going to be surprised,” said Paul. “This is a whole new approach to the sport. We think this will really help with handicapping and give fans a better understanding of the entire game.”

Monday, December 3, 2012

The Common Thread on Handle Movements

We were reading the Paulick Report this morning and noticed that Hastings Park in British Columbia has been having some success.

They appear to be taking a multi-pronged approach by being more customer and player friendly and that process began in early 2011. 

"On the heels of Santa Anita raising its takeout, something that has clearly alienated many customers, Hastings went in the opposite direction. Mutti decided to go the extra mile for the fan. Not only did they lower the takeout, they put in Wi-Fi throughout the grandstand, upgraded their graphics package for their video presentations and created a Pick Five with a carryover component. The Pick Four takeout went from 22.3 percent to 15, a decrease of 36 percent. "We are trying to reengage the horseplayer that we might have lost, not only locally but throughout the marketplace," he said."

It's about branding, marketing, lower takeout, field size, and player friendliness. It's not reinventing a wheel.

This is a common thread of late. With many tracks.

Charles Town started lowering takeout precipitously and becoming more player friendly a couple of years ago. Their handle has gone up and people who were never even looking at Charles Town are.

Last year they had their 15th straight month of handle increases. Their pick 4 handle, buoyed by lower rake, was up 55%.. Pick 3 handle was up 16%.

Woodbine lowered takeout in 2011, began to offer guaranteed pools, and worked hard to be more player friendly. Their handle was up 7.5%..

Kentucky Downs restructured, lowered takeout and had a record meet.

Balmoral Park in harness lowered takeout and began to offer more and more better opportunities. The pick 4 handle has gone from $8500 per pool, to over $30,000 per pool. This has spilled over: They've gone from $77,000 bet per race, to $92,000 bet per race. I remember back in 2010 when they did this. After two months of it and handle was not trending hugely upwards, some were telling them to jack it back up.  Thankfully, they knew Rome wasnt built in a day, and long time suffering horseplayers would not change and churn more overnight either.

NYRA dropped takeout, added some field size. Their handle is growing.

Keeneland, of course, has always been player friendly. If some executive said "let's raise takeout to make more money" at a Keeneland board meeting, they'd probably be replaced immediately and don't think for a second horseplayers don't realize that. They're the #1 track in the HANA ratings for a reason. Their brand continues to be solid. They've set some handle and attendance records recently.

Tampa Bay Downs has been lowering takeout since 2001. In that year their average daily handle was less than $2M. Now it's over $4M - it's doubled in ten years.

Penn even lowered some of their egregious takeout. Handle has been trending higher.

On the flip side, California who raised rakes in 2006 to fix things, were back in 2010 and raised them to fix things, well again. Their handle has been pretty disappointing; the problems they have are still there. If not for the low takeout pick 5, started after handle imploded in early 2011, what would their overall handle be?

Los Al, which was supposed to be a "test case for higher  takeout" has seen their handles become anemic.

What about Parx? Lotsa casino money, but look at those takeouts! Parx handle is poor, and has been for some time now. 

The above does not mean that lowering takeout is a cure all for everything. If you and I are selling CB radio's and offer them out at $5 instead of $10 it doesn't mean we're going to sell more. For proof of that there are tracks who are having problems even if they have lowered takeout - their place on the dial, their long term branding, their product, their field size and other external struggles tracks face all play a part in handle. If someone tells you takeout is the only thing plaguing the sport, they're wrong.

However, a takeout reduction allows a track to say "look at us, we are trying to give you a boost on payouts, trying to get field size up, trying to show you a good time if you visit on-track; we're open for business and we want your betting business".

This simply allows them to do things to build on the success that they may achieve. It puts more money collectively in bettors pockets, so when they cash they have more in the ADW account, or on their credit voucher at the track, so they can bet more the next race. It helps handle grow, and helps customers have a better time by having a bankroll last a little longer.

Often times, tracks who lower takeout follow with free PP's, concentrate on field size, look into Trakus and HD pictures and better graphics. Player friendliness is an overall strategy, not just a one off. 

Keeneland is open for business. So is Balmoral, so is Charles Town, and so is Hastings. These are places who want your money and they are going to work for it.

Horseplayers, in some way shape or form, over time, are saying "yes".

This is what horse racing needs. More answers of "yes" to the question "are you going to bet my track this weekend?"



Sunday, December 2, 2012

Tampa Bay Downs – Handicapping Info You Can Use



Tampa Bay Downs ranked 2nd overall in our 2012 HANA Track Ratings - kicked off their 2012-2013 meet yesterday. I spent some time this morning creating a text file that contains a look at data trends from the previous (2011-2012) meet.

Here’s a link to the file:

The file is broken up into three sections: Dirt Stats, Turf Stats and Combined Stats.

In this write up I am going to talk about trends in the dirt stats only. (For those of you interested in looking at similar trends in the turf and combined stats, the link to the text file appears above.)

About the Dirt Stats
I used my own database to pull up data for every starter that ran on the dirt at TAM during their previous (2011-2012) meet. I further broke out that meet data out into the following separate categories: By Gate Draw/Position from the rail out in the starting gate, by Speed Points, by Rider, by Trainer, and for those of you interested in getting a handle on shippers, by Ship From Track.

I have been told by a handful of horsemen that the Tampa Dirt Surface is one of the deeper track surfaces in North America. The data seems to bear this out.

Gate Draw
Horses that drew the rail last meet on the TAM dirt didn’t fare too well (statistically.) However, last meet at TAM it was the middle dirt posts (specifically the 4 hole) where horses outran their odds – as well as horses that drew the far outside (specifically posts 10 and higher.)

Speed Points
The Speed Point Numbers stored in my database are generated by an algorithm I wrote myself. If you were to study them closely you would likely find them to be a close approximation (but not an exact replication) of speed point numbers provided by data providers such as Brisnet or Track Master. That said, the data break-out using my own speed point numbers does suggest that the TAM dirt surface is a little deeper (and a little more tiring) than dirt surfaces of North American thoroughbred tracks in general. Horses with need the lead tendencies (specifically those with 8 speed points) fared horribly at last year’s TAM meet (barely returning $0.50 for each $1.00 bet in the win pool.) However, horses with tactical speed (specifically those with 3 or 4 speed points) fared much better and returned flat bet profits in the win pool.

Riders
I sorted the dirt sample by number of rider wins. Ronnie Allen Jr. led all riders on the TAM dirt course last meet with 60 wins from 385 starts. However, Allen’s ability to get his mounts to the outside and make a run from just off the pace wasn’t lost on the betting public. (Allen’s dirt mounts returned just $0.55 for each $1.00 bet in the win pool.) Fortunately, the Tampa Bay Downs riding colony did have its share of overlooked riders on the dirt last meet. Angel Serpa, Daniel Coa, Erik Barbaran, Willie Martinez, Jesse Garcia, Pedro Cotto, Jr., and Wilmer Galviz all made frequent trips to the winners circle - and flat bet profits were there to be had by bettors savvy enough to recognize their abilities.

Trainers
Next I sorted the dirt sample by number of trainer wins. Jamie Ness was the dominant trainer on the dirt, with 68 wins from 114 horses saddled. Amazingly, a win bet on each of his starters would have netted a flat bet profit. However, Ness wasn’t the only overlooked trainer on the dirt last year at TAM. The dirt starters of Jorge Navarro, Jane Cibelli, Bernell Rhone, Dennis Ward, Mark Passley, Lloyd Lockheart, Chad Stewart, Anthony Pecoraro, Thomas Proctor, Leigh Delacour, Angel Hyland, Brenda McCarthy (and a few others) all made frequent trips to the winners circle –at good prices too.

Ship From Track
Finally, I broke the dirt sample out by ship from track. Shippers from APX, BEL, CDX, DEL, HAW, MNR, PID, TDN, TPX, and WOX underperformed (vs. their post time odds) on the TAM dirt course. However, horses shipping in from BEU, CRC, GPX, LRL, MTH, PHA, RPX, and SUF consistently outran their odds – and flat bet profits were available to bettors savvy (or lucky) enough to have spotted the trend early on.

I’ll go out on a limb and make an educated guess. If you have read this far you are probably a horseplayer. At the risk of stating the obvious: There is no guarantee that trends from the previous meet will carry over to the current meet. However, as a horseplayer myself, I find it helpful to look at previous meet trends whenever I am faced with a new meet.

As the new meet unfolds, I’ll come back and post updates using current meet stats.

Jeff Platt
President, HANA


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

8 Steps to Help Racing

There was an article published today in Australia with 8 ways to fix racing. It should not surprise anyone that thousands of miles away the same issues are talked about, just like they are here. From the betting game, to owners, drugs, trainers and transparency.

One of them we don't hear enough of here is #6. Over 2,000 HANA members could've written this:

6. Punters are the industry's customers. Not owners. Certainly not breeders. Not the Spring Carnival party crowd. Punters.

Racing needs to understand that without punters there is no horseracing. They need to understand the threats of chronic inaction when punters are slapped in the face because they will still punt, but just not on horseracing. They will take their money to betting on ball sports that don't rely on wagering money, because they have TV rights, attendance fees and corporate sponsorship that racing doesn't. So when you serve up rubbish like Ballarat did yesterday, every punter who was locked into a quaddie was dudded and feels dudded. When Matthew Neilsen weighs in over-weight on a just-beaten mount, don't slap him with a token $800 fine, suspend him and anyone else who breaks that rule. If trainers and owners don't want vision of trials that are overseen by stewards released to the public, bad luck. If Tabcorp want to increase their exotic bet taxes, then tell them they can't. Get your track ratings and readings right and race over uniform distances. And if a stable blatantly changes tactics without notifying the public, then enforce the rule and punish those who break it.

To read the entire list, please click here.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Balmoral Park Results

We received a note from Chicago's Balmoral Park last evening on their 2012 results, bouyed by their work with their low takeout pick 4. Congratulations to BLMP!

BALMORAL PARK

2012 thru 9-20  Handle $120,286,598     1302 races     $ 92,386 per race
2011 thru 9-30  Handle $  96,848,694     1253 races     $ 77,293 per race

 ANATOMY OF A BET 
      BALMORAL PARK PICK 4 HISTORY    2009 TO THE PRESENT

2009
2010
2011
2012




25% Takeout
15% Takeout
15% Takeout
15% Takeout



JAN
$8,524
$7,698
$15,163
   $28,675



FEB
8,587
10,277
17,490
     27,046



MAR
9,739
10,923
15,629
     40,316



APR
7,750
11,021
26,584
      32,715



MAY
7,907
14,897
24,773
      32,345



JUN
9,425
14,109
24,708
      31,798



JUL
7,689
16,357
26,191
      30,869



AUG
8,160
12,570
23,658
      30,822



SEP
11,672
22,467
30,411
      33,928



OCT
7,432
15,670
28,016




NOV
9,641
15,703
25,804




DEC
10,349
12,584
23,519

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

I'm Tired. Just Do It



I’m tired; and it’s not just because my one year old decided the best time to scream at the top of her lungs was between 1AM – 2:30AM last night. I’m tired of the hoards of issues facing the game today, the same issues from decades ago. I’m tired of the constant inaction of industry leaders. I’m even tired of the pages upon pages of thoughtful analysis, insights, suggestions, and solutions I read from blogs and countless other sources, as good as much of it is. In fact, I’ve read more high quality material on the state of the game and steps needed to fix it in the past 12 – 18 months than in all previous years of following this sport combined. I’m tired of it because we’ve come to a point where the words aren’t resonating and they should. No matter what we say and no matter how well it is said, few are listening. It’s exhausting.

Why should anyone listen to a player like me when Satish Sanan, a high profile owner, player, and outspoken proponent for meaningful change isn’t making any headway. Mr. Sanan has continuously articulated sensible solutions, on a both small and large scale, and yet nothing ever changes. Even with my typical horseplayer streak of inherent cynicism, I can honestly say I agree with about 95% of what Mr. Sanan has to say about making the sport better. I’ve listened to him in many forums and his ideas are essentially an amalgamation of what thousands of us have been saying in one context or another.

We’re at a juncture where talking and writing about all that ills are falling on deaf ears. All you can do at the grassroots level is donate your time and effort and hope for the best. HANA has done some great things with a budget of essentially nil and an all-volunteer membership and leadership, a group of people that care enough to attempt to better the game we love on our own time. For the most part, as horseplayers, our stake in the game is with discretionary income. Those stakeholders with skin in the game that rely on the sport as their living need to get creative and absolutely must evolve and open their ears and minds. Should the status quo continue, as much as it pains me to say it, there are other ways to spend our precious extra cash. Day after day, year after year, the same issues persist without action. At some point, even the most ardent gluttons for punishment will cry “uncle”.

I’m tired because “We The People” cannot enact widespread change without industry involvement - We can only do our best to promote and encourage it. Note to all of the actors in the system with a chip at the table: I’m tired of hearing all the reasons why you can’t do it and I’m sick of the passionate voices getting drowned out. Life is short and competition is wide. The time for talk is over. Just do it.

Jerod Dinkin
HANA Board Member

Sunday, October 28, 2012

HANA Harness Wraps Up Year Long Contest; Thanks Sponsors, Over $4,000 For Horse Rescues



For Immediate Release                                                                                                                  
FFI – Contact Allan Schott at allan@hanaweb.org

Mark McKelvie Crowned The Pen vs. The Chip Champion 

 (October 28, 2012) – After sixty-three race cards consisting of eight hundred and eight races handicapped, Pen Handicapper Mark McKelvie was crowned champion of HANA Harness’ The Pen vs. The Chip Handicapping Challenge sponsored by the Hambletonian Society, Meadowlands, Tioga Downs, and Vernon Downs on Saturday night at Woodbine Racetrack on Breeders Crown Night.   

Not that it was an easy victory.  McKelvie, who was cruising on the lead for most of the contest, was under pressure from Chip Handicapper Earl the Pearl in the final leg as Earl had surged from sixth place to start the evening in second place, just $37.90 behind McKelvie.  When Earl scored in the seventh race with Rockin Amadeus who paid $37.00 to win, it seemed like an upset was in the making but it was not to be as Mark finished in front, a mere 0.012 ahead in the ROI with a difference of $19.90 separating the top two.  Pen Handicapper Bobby Z finished third for the competition.   

In tonight’s final leg, Pandy finished on top with a Win ROI of 2.554, grossing $61.30 with five winners selected on the twelve race program.  Finishing second was Trackmaster’s Chatsworth Consortium with a ROI of 1.688 ($40.50) while Earl the Pearl took the show spot with a 1.542 rating ($37.00).  While falling short, Earl managed to cash in big Saturday evening as besides having Rockin Amadeus to win, Earl also had the $304.60 exacta and $586.20 trifecta nailed cold in the seventh race.  

 The final standings (sixty-three legs) for the competition are as follows:
Position
Name
$ Won
ROI
ROI Back
Legs
Prev Pos
1st
Mark McKelvie (P)
$1,453.50
0.899

63
1st
2nd
Earl the Pearl (C)
$1,433.60
0.887
0.012
63
2nd
3rd
Bobby Z (P)
$1,322.90
0.862
0.037
60
3rd
4th
Pandy (C)
$1,353.80
0.838
0.061
63
5th
5th
Mr, Trifecta (P)
$1,345.50
0.833
0.066
63
4th
6th
Chatsworth Consortium (C)
$1,301.00
0.805
0.094
63
6th
7th
Scott Alberg (P)
$1,273.10
0.788
0.111
63
7th
8th
Ray's Robot (C)
$1,239.40
0.767
0.132
63
8th

As a result of Mark’s accomplishment, Horse Rescue United (HRU), McKelvie’s designated standardbred rescue, will be the recipient of donations of totaling $2,100 from the four sponsors and the Horseplayers Association of North America.  In addition, other donations in Mark’s name will be made to HRU and local rescues by the associate sponsors.   

 In Canada, donations will be made to the Ontario Standardbred Adoption Society or local rescues of the track’s choice.  A total of $4,250 in donations has been pledged to various standardbred rescues as a result of the handicapping challenge.
With respect to the Exacta Key side competition, Earl the Pearl won the evening with an Exacta ROI of 6.622, grossing $304.60 for the evening.  Pandy took the place spot with a ROI of 1.450 ($69.60) with Bobby Z taking the final placing with a rating of 1.146 ($55.00).  McKelvie was the overall winner for exactas as well, this time with a much more comfortable lead, finishing with an impressive 0.989 ROI.  The final exacta standings are:

Position
Name
$ Won
ROI
1st
Mark McKelvie (P)
$3,129.00
0.989
2nd
Bobby Z (P)
$2,583.80
0.865
3rd
Earl the Pearl (C)
$2,658.60
0.843
4th
Ray's Robot (C)
$2,514.20
0.802
5th
Pandy (C)
$2,520.70
0.798
6th
Chatsworth Consortium (C)
$2,437.40
0.783
7th
Scott Alberg (P)
$2,280.60
0.730
8th
Mr. Trifecta (P)
$2,186.80
0.693
  
On Friday night, the final leg of The Pen vs. The Chip Challenge at Vernon Downs was contested and as a result, Earl the Pearl was the handicapper who finished the best overall at Vernon Downs.  As a result of Earl’s accomplishments, Vernon Downs is making a donation to the Standardbred Rescue Foundation in Earl’s name.

HANA Harness would like to once again thank our four major sponsors, the Hambletonian Society, Meadowlands, Tioga Downs, Vernon Downs and our associate sponsors, Grand River Raceway, Harrington Raceway, Horseplayers Association of North America, The Gold Cup and Saucer (Red Shores Charlottetown Driving Park), Illinois Harness Horsemen’s Association, Indiana Downs, Little Brown Jug (Delaware County Fair),  and Woodbine Entertainment Group for their generosity in agreeing to make donations to the standardbred rescue cause.   

For the further information about The Pen vs. The Chip Handicapping Challenge, including additional final statistics, please visit http://hanaharnesscontest.blogspot.com.