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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today

Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago.  At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards.  There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth.  It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...

Contenders:

#7  Arena Elvira ML 4/1

This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance.  She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today.  Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins.  Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed.  I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.

#4  Juanita ML 7/2

She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds.  Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth.  As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle.  Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities.  She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.

#5  Love and Pride ML 5/1

This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga.  She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second.  Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored.  The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.

Dark Horse:

#3 Beloveda ML 9/2

Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting  improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler.  So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is.  She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.

Bombs Away:

#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1

Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again.  He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level.  He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board.  She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal.  What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.

Selections:

7 - 4 - 5




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