Weekend Handicapping: Marketing Mix ready to take Dancing Smart today @Woodbine

Just when you think you've got this game figured out, along comes Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith and smacks you back down to reality.  I'll admit I didn't give him much consideration in the Suburban yesterday at Belmont.  He took control of the race from the beginning and just dominated, congratulations to his connections. Today we head back up to Woodbine for a turf affair for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. It's the Grade 2, Dancing Smartly for a purse of $300,000 and there is a field of seven going the mile and an eighth.  We've been a bit off since a great start in June, so let's see if a race on the weeds brings us back.

Contenders:

#7 Marketing Mix ML 1/1

I'm not taking the easy way out going with the chalk selection, but when you look at this 4YO filly what can you say? She is coming off a nice win in the Nassau (G2) here on the turf, giving her five of seven on turf.  Her speed is consistent, seems to win where ever she goes, and two for two at Woodbine, with two solids results at this distance on turf.  Tom Proctor is solid in this situation and with Leparoux having this filly wired, she is going to be hard to beat, regardless of the odds.

#1 Indian Pond ML 4/1

This lightly raced 4YO has two turf wins to her credit, both at Woodbine.  Her last effort, and her 4YO debut was a strong one losing to Marketing Mix by two lengths in the Grade 2, Nassau.  She has won at this distance back in October over the synthetic here at Woodbine and has shown a burst of speed since turning four.  She will come off the pace with Inglorious and that will be interesting.  I look for her to have an even better effort in her second start.

#4 Kissable(IRE) ML 6/1

I have a tendency to play the first time UK/Euro starter on turf, and would have put her first if Marketing Mix hadn't been in the mix.  She has acquitted herself well in some big stakes races in Ireland, showed good speed on soft surfaces.  Most overseas turf runners respond well to our harder turf, so I can see filly being there at the end.  Roger Attfield is a crafty trainer, even though his record with these first time starters is  zero for eleven.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

 # 2 Inglorious ML 5/2

She will be making her third start on grass today and her second effort against Marketing Mix.  Two back she finished second coming five wide, and with the added distance see no reason she can't overhaul her. We know this filly can win big races and Carroll has been working her well.  The big angle is the change to Husbands, who wins 24% on grass.  If we can get 3/1 or better she would be the play.

Selection:

7 - 1 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Stay Thirsty in the Suburban @Belmont

Today we have one of the premiere races at Belmont, the Grade 2, Suburban Handicap. It's for 3 YO's and upward and usually attracts a solid field, and today is no different.  There are seven entered, five of them are strong contenders for the purse of $350,000.  They will be running over the dirt for a mile and an eighth, there is a good balance of speed and stalkers, so that will make this race come down at the wire.  So let's take a look ...

Contenders:

#1 Stay Thirsty ML 7/2

Going out on a limb with him since he has never won at Belmont on four attempts( three of them were on off tracks).  However, what I do like is that he usually gives a big performance after his first race off a layoff.  He has won at this distance before, been training steadily, and has the class to win this race.  We know Pletcher/Castellano are a strong team and his pressing style sets him perfectly for this pace.

#7 To Honor and Serve ML 9/5

Mott certainly has him ready for this race with his third in the Metropolitan at the end of May. His Beyer's are super strong, workouts have been excellent and no doubt likes Belmont, winning two of three. Also, he is three of five at this distance.  The only reason I've got him in the place spot is that there is enough speed here to push him and open the door for Stay Thirsty.  He has all the tools to win this race, the odds will be miserly, but counting on the pace to work against him.

#4 Hymn Book ML 6/1

He has flattened out in the last two since turning six.  However, this gelding enjoys this track and distance, including a win here at this distance.  He is also versatile, winning on turf, off tracks and various distances.  That is what makes him so dangerous, and he is one of the closer's in this group. If the pace falters, and Stay Thirsty can't hold up, he should fly by. McGaughey puts Garcia back on, and with a 29% stakes win record, Hymn Book is one not to ignore.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#5 Trickmeister ML 6/1

If you toss out the poor effort in the Donn (G1), this five year old is six for six.  He has gone wire to wire at this distance and won his first outing at Belmont in May. Granted the company is not to this level, but Dutrow is dangerous with these type of horses.  His drills have been steady and he has shown he can fly, and with his bounce back in the last race, he is showing the maturity to take another shot at this level.  If he can get better than 6/1 he would be a sweet play.

Selections:

1 - 7 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Bed Of Roses at Belmont

We start July off with another sprint, this time up at Belmont for the Bed Of Roses (G3) for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards.  The field of 10 will be going 7 Furlongs for a purse of $150,000.  The field is a solid group of sprinters and I've found three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away.  So let's see if we can start July like we did June ...

Contenders:

#7 C C's Pal ML 8/5

It's hard to ignore this mare after winning the G2, Vagrancy here at Belmont in June.  Her Beyer's have been consistent, she is 2 for 2 at Belmont and won once at this distance (at Belmont).  She shows good versatility in her style of racing and look for to get on top of this field. Richard Dutrow is having a great season, especially with 32% winners off last start and 30% in springs.  He keeps his sharpshooter, Junior Alvarado in the irons, making her even tougher.  Her only weakness is the distance, only winning once in 6 efforts, but current form and success here at Belmont gives her the edge.

#2 Island Bound ML 7/2

She is coming off a nice win in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill, posting her best Beyer at 90.  What makes her attractive is winning 3 of 8 at this distance, and 3 of 6 this season overall.  Her workouts have been solid, Wilkes does nicely with second off a layoff and he keeps Goncalves on board.  Not sure how much pace there will be but her stalking style should play right into her hands.  She has won coming wide and has shown she can handle trouble.

#4 Derwin's Star ML 3/1

This 5YO mare posted a strong 93 Beyer in the My Juliet finishing third, a nose behind CC's Pal.  Has won 2 of 3 at this distance, and 4 of 8 on dirt. She has won some big races and has success at any track they send her to.  The angle today is she does well off layoffs, a bullet work and Dominguez takes over. Lastly, she has beaten CC's Pal in the past, and her pressing style could make it interesting.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#6 Catinatree ML 10/1

Michael Hushion wheels her back after winning his first effort with her at Parx.  Granted it wasn't a tough field but you can't ignore Hushions success with these type of horses.  Today he pushes her out to 7 Furlongs for the first time, two solid workouts and puts Luzzi in the saddle.  She'll definitely force CC's Pal hand on the front end, and knowing the strong record of Hushion in these spots it wouldn't surprise me to see her take off and nail it.  If she gets 10/1 or better this is where my money would go.

Selections:

7 - 2 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Two horse race in the Mother Goose, maybe!

So far this month we have gotten off to a good start, three winners in four races, and one dark horse selection coming through.  However, that could end today at Belmont in the Mother Goose (G1).  It looks like a two horse race on paper, and will probably be so if you can figure out which one will win it.  The Mother Goose is for 3YO fillies going a mile and a sixteenth over the dirt track.  The purse is for $300,000 and we have a small field  of five.  With that there will be only three contenders today.

Contenders:

#2 Contested ML 7/5

She will be shooting for her 5th in a row, coming off a solid win in the G1 Acorn, here at Belmont.  Since she left California her Beyer's have really jumped and she looks like she is getting stronger as they stretch her out.  She likes to get out on top, and while Believe You Can can run with her, I think Contested could easily go wire to wire.  Baffert has found a nice spot for her today.

#1 Believe You Can ML 8/5

Here is another filly returning after winning a G1 race, the Kentucky Oaks, with an impressive 100 Beyer.  Looking to win her 3rd in a row, and has shown she can get out on the lead as well. Has won 2 of 3 at this distance and won the Tempted (G3) here at Belmont as a 2YO in the mud.  She has shown she can win off the layoff, doing it twice and Larry Jones has an eye popping 34% win record in Stakes races.  If there was another filly entered with some speed this pace would set up for her perfectly. However, with only Contested out front it might be to much to ask of her to go head to head.

#3 Disposablepleasure ML 8/1

It's pretty wide open after the top two, but I like how this filly responded in the Black Eyed Susan, getting up for second.  She had a big Beyer improvement and will need one today to get on the other fillies.  What I like today, is she is back at Belmont where she won her maiden, Pletcher puts Doninguez on board again, and she can rate off the pace.  If the top two get out of control and melt down (which I don't think will happen) she can prevail.  She is a contender, dark horse and quasi-Bombs Away all in one.  

Selection:

2 - 1 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: Le Bernadin in Pegasus @Monmouth today

The Stephen Foster set up nicely for Ron the Greek yesterday.  Nate's Mineshaft took off and several chased, while the pace wasn't blistering it was enough to put Ron the Greek in great position. Lezcano rode it perfectly by staying to the inside and took care of business when the opportunity opened up.  Today, we head over to Monmouth Park for the Grade 3, Pegasus for 3YO's going a mile and sixteenth on dirt for a purse of $100,000.  We have a field of 7 lightly raced 3YO's and due to the shorter field I will have the 3 contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.

Contenders:

#3 Le Bernardin ML 3/1

Here is a lightly raced 3YO who has won 2 of 4, including an Allowance race with older horses. Then McLauglin spins him right back into the G2, Peter Pan, where he gets on the field and then fades.  I sense that race in the Peter Pan was more of what does this colt have then really trying to win.  Today, he cuts back a bit on distance and has Luzzi back in the irons.  He has had a couple of decent works since that beating and Kiaran does well with minor layoffs winning 26% of the time.  He has shown to be a tough horse and look for him to get out quickly.

#7  Good Morning Diva ML 3/1

He has won twice both on off tracks but you have to admire the win in the $150,000 Calder Derby at this distance.  Timothy Hills took over after that race and dropped him in the G2, Peter Pan where he fared better than Le Bernardin, finishing fourth.  Today, he gets a scenery change and a jockey switch to Elvis Tjuillo. His lack of consistency is the only thing that holds him back from being the top selection.

#5 Easter Gift ML 6/1

Nick Zito brings in a two time winner over off tracks for this race.  We have a nice angle here with a shipper, stretching out from two sprints with improving speed fig's.  Two good works at Saratoga and keeps Russell on board for today.  Zito wins 21% in stakes races and I think has this colt positioned well today to be a serious threat.


Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#6 Speeding Again ML 10/1

Two sprints here at Monmouth with one win being his maiden.  Had a pedestrian effort in his first Allowance race for non winners of one, but has shown he can hold his own with older horses.  McBurney stretches him out today which is a nice angle, keeps Marquez in the irons. He likes to lay off the pace and if he stays clear of the action, he might find himself in a winning a position. Regardless, it will be interesting to see the improvement in this colt as he enters the graded realm for the first time.

Selection:
3 - 7 - 5

Weekend Handicapping: Loaded field for Foster @ Churchill

In looking over all the stakes races being run today, the one that I found to be most challenging is the G1, Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs.  It's for 3YO and upwards running a mile and an eighth over the dirt for a purse of $400,000.  There is a field of nine going forward (no scratches when this was written) and at least 5 of them have a solid chance of winning this race.  What makes this group so difficult is the versatility of them, for all of them can race to the lead or press, so trying to figure out the pace is nearly impossible. Regardless, it will be a good one no matter who wins it.  So here we go ...

Contenders:

#1a Successful Dan ML 8/5

This is one of those times where I had to push my personal bias to the side and really look at the best horse. I'm a big Nate's Mineshaft fan, and will play my money there but from a pure handicapping perspective, Successful Dan has to be the one to beat. Winner of 7 of 10, 3 of 4 at Churchill Downs and carrying a 5 race winning streak, that includes a G1 win and 2 G2 wins (will ignore the DQ in the Clark).  His versatility set's up well with this group, he can to the front, press and even stalk the pace.  I see no drop off with JohnnyV taking over today.  The one to beat.

#1 Nates Mineshaft ML 6/1

Probably more wishful thinking on my part for he is a notorious "horse for course", winning mostly at Fair Grounds and the other tracks in the south.  He has only one try at CD and it wasn't pretty finishing 6th in the Alysheba behind Successful Dan and Fort Larned.  He since bounced off that performance with a G3 win.  Going to use the bad trip scenario in the CD outing instead of not liking the surface. I can see Campbell taking him out and go wire to wire. The old come and get me trip.

#8 Alternation ML 4/1

It will be his first venture into Churchill Downs, but he has shown he can win where ever he races. On a 4 race winning streak, including 2 G3's and a G2.  The key here is that Von Hemel wins 21% with horses that won last out, and has a staggering 29% stakes winning record with a ROI $3.53!  He will get a good price today, and has all the ability to take off and nail this group. Quinonez knows him well and can race him anyway he wants to suit the pace.

Dark Horse:

#5 Ron the Greek ML 6/1

The attraction here is that he is a G1 winner taking the Santa Anita Handicap and likes to rate off the pace.  He can go forward, but I believe Lezcano will let the others go out and wait to see the pace break down.  He likes to go long and can run down a field from the outside.  He is in a tough group of speedsters but if there is a melt down he will prevail.

Bombs Away:

#6 Rogue Romance ML 30/1

He is not the long shot pick due to the odds but there is something about him that says, "watch out." He bounced off his poor performance in the Ben Ali (G3) to win an Optional Claiming here at CD. A jockey switch to Cruz also seemed to be a tonic. I like that he can lay back and see what opens with this speed today, and he is comfortable at Churchill.  He has shown he can handle the Graded level, and today he could make his mark.

Selections:

1a - 1 - 8    

Weekend Handicapping: Union Rags to rebound in the Belmont

There is no doubt that there is a different aura around the Belmont today, than the excitement that had been building just 48 hours ago.  In some circles the race today is just another G1 stakes race now that I'll Have Another had to be scratched.  While I would have had him as my first selection, we all know how this race can change the course of racing history.  It'll be an exciting race for the 11 entrants going a mile and a half for the million dollar purse.  So let's dive in ...

Contenders:

#3 Union Rags ML 6/1

I'm going  to toss out the Derby effort, he got off to a bad start and with a field of 20 you have no chance after that.  He has won 4 of 7, including the G1, Champagne here at Belmont last year.  He has been working well, back to back bullets, and Matz makes a jockey change, putting Velazquez in the irons.  One final note, Union Rags has won both times when he has come back from a break.  He is fit and ready and I think the added distance will help him today.

#5 Dullahan ML 5/1

He will be the favorite today and deserving of that honor.  Like Union Rags, had a tough ride in the Derby but did close down well.  His connections skipped the Preakness and pointed him to this race.  He can handle the distance and has 2 G1 wins under his belt.  His last workout was a bullet and looks ready to go.  For me the big issue is the jockey switch.  Normally I like that angle but in this case, I'm not so sure.

#10 Optimizer ML 20/1

I admit I like this Lukas trained 3YO. I've been waiting for him to find himself and repeat that great effort in the Rebel. If Nakatani can keep him from trouble, get him relaxed and turn him loose at the right time, he could fly by all of these boys.  This is a race where I believe the distance favors him.  

Dark Horse:

#9 Paynter ML 8/1

He will be making only his 5th start but he has been on the G1 stage before, finishing fourth in his second start in the Santa Anita Derby.  His last 2 races he posted impressive Beyer's and will take the lead today.  It might be asking a lot of him in this situation but you have to be wary of a Baffert/Mike Smith situation. Hard to ignore Bafferts record with winners last time of 29%.

Bombs Away:

#1 Street Life ML 12/1

Here is another lightly raced 3YO and his coming right back after a fine performance in the Peter Pan (G2) here at Belmont. He finished third in that race and improved his Beyer nicely.  Chad Brown keeps Lezcano on board which is a good sign, has been working well and has one route race under his belt at Belmont. No doubt it will take a huge effort but if any pace occurs on the front end,  he could kick it into gear and catch them.

Selections:

3 - 5 -10

Weekend Handicapping: Snow Top Mountain in the Mint Julep @ Chruchiill

Today we head down to Churchill Downs and will look at the 36th running of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap.  It's a Grade 3 race for fillies and mares 3YO on turf going a mile and sixteenth for a purse of $100,000.  Their are nine entered and as of this writing no scratches. There is no real front end speed in this bunch of ladies, most are stalkers or closer's, so it makes this race wide open.  When all said and done the mare I keep coming back to is ...

Contenders:

#8 Snow Top Mountain ML 4/1

She has shown herself to be a versatile mare, winning where ever she races and distances.  I'm going to ignore her last outing at Tampa as one of those days or not liking the course.  Two back, she won the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, beating Hit It Rich.  She has won here at CD and at this speed with good Beyer's. Proctor has a 20% win record across the board in these situations, and makes a switch to Shane Sellers today.  With the pace so uncertain, this race should set up well for her closing nature.

#1 Bizzy Caroline ML 4/1

This 4YO filly got off to a great 3YO season winning three of her first four outings, including the Regret (G3). She tried two G1 events and was over matched and then showed strong efforts in a G2 and G3 race. She has won two of three over the CD turf course and likes this distance too.  What makes her interesting is she has shown she can go forward, and today with no real speed she good kick out on the lead and go wire to wire.  McPeek has her working well and her past speed fig's hold well with this group.  

#3 Tapitsfly ML 3/1

Every time I ignore her she wins, like the Honey Fox (G2) at Gulfstream last March.  The reason I'll  lay off her today is that she has not won at CD in four tries, and shows better speed at a mile than this distance.  She is off to a good start in her 5YO season, hitting the board in all three races.  Romans puts on Lebron today, where they have been hitting at 41% rate.  What makes her dangerous is that she can go out to the lead or rate off, I think she'll take off but not sure she can hold off the closer's.

Dark Horse:

#2 Artemus Kitten  ML 5/1

This is more of an angle play than anything.  I like Michael Maker in these situations, bringing in a filly who has won at this distance two of three, posted a nice 93 Beyer two back and changes jockeys (Bridgmohan takes over).  This filly might be a horse for course at Fair Grounds (two of three), but with two wins out of four tries (toss the last dirt effort) this season, she looks tough today.  She will stalk the pace, so pace will dictate her ability to kick at the end.

Bombs Away:

#9 Warm Hugs ML 12/1

This lightly raced 4YO won her first effort at CD a month ago in an Allowance for non winners of 1 at this distance.  She likes this distance, Mott hit's 23% on winners last start, and Nakatani stays on board. Her racing style is to press the pace, which might set up well for her today since her Beyer's are bit light for this group.  While not one to get wrapped up in weights, she does get a big weight break to 113. Mott/Nakatani are a crafty pair, if the pace breaks her way, she could sneak through.

Selections:

8 - 1 - 3

Weekend Handicapping: Wait Til Dawn could surprise in the Selene @Woodbine

The Peter Pan (G2) turned out to be an interesting race yesterday.  Right To Vote took off and ran some blistering fractions and didn't quit.  Mark Valeski ran his race pressing the pace and then taking control from the outside at the eighth pole to win it.  Interestingly, Mark Valeski went off at 6/5 which isn't a bad price considering Teeth of the Dog scratched. I would have thought Mark Valeski would have dropped to even money or worse.  What did surprise is how Right To Vote got away at 47/1! He impressed me with his race, showed wow speed and grit deep into the stretch.  The early reports are he will be in the Dwyer and I think that distance of a mile and sixteenth will suit him better.

Today, we head back up to Woodbine for the G3, Selene for 3YO fillies going a mile and sixteenth over the synthetic surface for a purse of $250,000.  It's a small field of six and will cover the three contenders and one outsider.

Contenders:

#1 Wait Til Dawn ML 9/5

We all know #2 Tu Endie Wei is the horse to beat in this feature, but that would have been too easy. So I looked for the upset horse and I kept coming back to Pletcher's filly.  She will be making her fifth start as a 3YO and first on synthetic.  Has won once at this distance, winning her maiden at GP then tried a G2 race at Oaklawn finishing fourth but posted a much improved Beyer. You have to like the improving shipper, with the dangerous Contreras on board. She also posted a nice work at Saratoga a week ago so she looks ready.  She'll press Tu Endie Wei making for an interesting duel at the end.

#2 Tu Endie Wei ML 7/5

Baker Reade's filly is four for four at Woodbine with three nice stakes races to her credit.  Her only defeat came at this distance at Keeneland in a G1 affair.  She won at first asking as a 3YO and takes the natural step up to G3.  We know she's fast and will take off with this group, the question is can she route?  This isn't the toughest bunch so she should prevail, but those extra panels can be her undoing.

#3 Dixie Strike ML 3/1

She had a two for four 2YO campaign here at Woodbine, both of those wins came at this distance. She went south to start her 3YO season and won at first asking taking the Florida Oaks on turf, since then she has had two uneven efforts.  Now Marc Casse brings her back home and put's Husbands back on and that makes her dangerous.  She flashed two solid works before a pedestrian effort last week.  Her Beyer's have improved down in FL and if she is a horse for course, then watch out.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#4 Katie Get Excited ML 6/1

It's hard to ignore a Ricky Griffith entry, especially one that is on the upward swing.  She won her maiden to close out her 2YO season then wins at  first asking as a 3YO in an Allowance N1X.  This is a big step up today and stretching out were Ricky wins 27% of the time.  He doesn't run a big string but his entries show up ready to go and finds a way to win.  She had a nice 5f workout on the 6th and looks ready to go.

Selections:

1 - 2 -3

Weekend Handicapping: Mark Valeski in the Peter Pan

Today at Belmont, we have the Peter Pan (G2) for 3YO going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $200,000.  Their are 11 going forward and it's a race loaded with speed.  There are a lot of colt's here to like, all lightly raced and most are multiple winners.  The other two challenges with this group is most have never gone this distance, and how much upside do they still possess? That makes it anyone's race.  It's a solid group and actually I like them more than the Derby entrants.  So here we go ...

Contenders:

#5  Mark Veleski ML 5/2

I chose him to win the Risen Star (G2) and looked like he had it until El Padrino chased him down.  He looked strong in the Louisiana Derby (G2) almost winning it.  It's hard to ignore him when he has shown he can go this distance, has been working out well and of course, Larry Jones.  Jones has a 33% winning record in Graded Stakes and 43% with Rosie Napravnik.  I also like that he has won twice off layoffs.  He is no lock but going with the trainer/distance angle.

#10 Teeth of the Dog ML 6/1

He is the only one to win at this distance in his maiden win and then returns to give a tough show performance in the Wood Memorial (G1).  In each of his four races his Beyer's have improved and could really move up today. Michael Matz is tough in these situations, and Bravo has this colt wired.  The only question is does he chase the speed or rate off?  Coming from the outside will be a real test for him.

#2 The Lumber Guy ML 7/2

He is three for four, coming off winning the Jerome (G2) at a mile.  His only off race at this distance in the Wood Memorial, running wide and then tiring.  There are two angles here on this colt,  one is Hushion is stellar with winners coming back, dirt route races (30+% winners) and a 20% hit rate in graded stakes.  The other is that he has won all three races coming out of the inside gates, the Wood he was in the 8 hole and ran three wide.  With him coming out at #2 and his speed of 96 he could get loose on this field.

Dark Horse:

#9 Master Rick ML 10/1

He woke up when Asmussen took over winning two in a row at Oaklawn Park.  His last race was a stakes race with an eye popping 99 Beyer going a mile.  He is another one with the early speed and has shown he can carry it.  We all know Asmussen and Nakatani are dangerous in these spots and today is no different. You have to like the step up in class on the improve and stretching out.  The outside post could be a hindrance for him with all this speed, but Nakatani is crafty in these spots

#6 Good Morning Diva ML 12/1

This is a simple Mark Cramer angle here. Shipping in from Florida, new trainer in Tim Hills, jockey switch to Leparoux and stretching out in distance.  He won the Calder Derby in his first route and posted a solid Beyer. He likes to press the pace which might work out well with the speed today.  The only knock is he might be a foul weather horse, both wins on an off track.

Bombs Away:

#1 Right to Vote ML 20/1

Here is another speedster stretching out today.  He shows to be a bouncer on his speed figures, but I do like how he showed himself in the Champagne against Union Rags and Alpha as a 2YO.  Harty sets him up nicely by taking a OC$100K first time as a 3YO and brings him back to Belmont where he won his maiden. Kind of a horse for course angle today and will need a big jump in effort to run with this crew.  His pedigree says he can get it done.

Selections:

5 - 10 - 2  

Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)

Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont.  It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000.  There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group.  Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners.  Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.

Contenders:

#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2

I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races.  He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs.  Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons.  His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.

#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5

Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him.  He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.

#5  Marylin's Buy ML 6/1

He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct.  He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today.  His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.

Dark Horse/Bombs Away:

#7  Bold Deed ML 12/1

He is taking a big step up in class today.  He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire.  Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good.  His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.

Selections:

1 - 6 - 5












 

Weekend Handicapping: A Hardened Wildcat in the Bayshore(G3)

We had a nice double last weekend.  Hit It Rich won the Orchid on Saturday, followed by Nate's Mineshaft taking the New Orleans Handicap.  Both paid handsome returns, Hit It Rich paid $7.40 and Nate's Mineshaft returned $20.80! Now if we could do that every weekend, right?  Today, we are at Aqueduct and going to look at a sprint race for 3YO's.  It's the Bayshore Handicap (G3) going 7 furlongs for a purse of $250,000. We have eight entered and several of them like to get on top quick, so don't be surprised to see a wire to wire finish in this one.

Contenders:

#6  Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1

This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand.  His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.

#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1

I can't let this race be completely chalk!  He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt.  He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win.  The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.

#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5

His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut.  Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins.  The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce".  Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid.  I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.

Dark Horse:

#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1

This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off.  The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins.  He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.

#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1

This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them.  As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him.  The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out.  He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce.  Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start.  Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.

Bombs Away:

#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1

Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire.  He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons.  There is something about Cory at a price in features.  This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.

Selections:

6 - 5 - 1

I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday. http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Nates Mineshaft for Nawlins Handicap at FG

I skipped the Florida Derby to look at the Orchid, and Hit It Rich got it done. She held her morning line at 3/1 and paid a nice $7.20 for her effort. I was also pleased to Aqsaam do well, holding place to a hard charging Keertana.  It was a thrilling race! Today, we are going to the Fair Grounds, and will ignore the Louisiana Derby fora really difficult race, the New Orleans Handicap(G2). It's for 4YO+ going a mile and an eighth over the main course.  The nine entrants are gunning for a $400,000 purse, and we see a lot of familiar faces.  Right off the bat, I see six of them winning this race, it's that contentious. I'm going to write this one up differently, going to list my three contenders, then the next three possibles.

Contenders:

#3 Nates Mineshaft ML 10/1

Call it a horse for course angle, but this 5YO does have four wins in four starts here at the Fair Grounds.  He has won three in a row, his last outing was the G3 Mineshaft Handicap, were he posted a 98 Beyer.   He has been a different horse since Austin Smith took over and don't see that trend ending. His speed has improved nicely, workouts are solid and don't see the added distance being a problem.  He won't break from the gate at 10/1,  but I feel he has a great shot at winning this race.

#1 Nehro ML 6/1

He has proven he can run with the big names, three seconds in marquee races.  He won his first out as a 4YO, while not a big time race, he showed he can find the winners circle.  I see no problem with him finding that 98 -99 Beyer and you can't ignore Steve Asmussen here.  He has a knack of finding the right conditions and surprising us and he keeps a hot Bridgmohan in the irons. If holds at 6/1 he would be real tempting.

#4 Toby's Corner ML 6/1

Graham Motion ships in his Wood Memorial(G1) winner for this one.  This lightly raced 4YO is four of seven lifetime and has hit the board in every race. Past winner at this distance and last out hit a 100 Beyer in the General George(G2) at Laurel.  Like Asmussen, you don't ignore Motion entered horses, and this one looks ready to fire.  He should split the money with Mission Impazible, and has the tactical racing style to win it.

Possibles:

#2 Mission Impazible ML 5/2

He is the defending champion of this event and that was the last time he won a race.  He is the logical contender with Toby's Corner, but I don't see it today for this Pletcher entry.  My issue is he has shown himself to be a "bouncer". It's easy to see, since this race last year. He started on a high note this season, so we would expect to see a drop off today.  I'm not taking anything away from his abilities to win this race, and he can.  But I'm going with his form, and it says not today.

#5 Redeemed ML 4/1

He had an outstanding 3YO season winning five of seven, including the Discovery Handicap(G3) at Aqueduct.  He certainly has the speed and Prado has him dialed in, so why am I so cool on him not being in the top three? I get leery of a horse, not so much because of the horse, but when I see the connections moving the horse around to different trainers so much. This is not a rap on McGee, but this horse has had four trainers in six months. I know sometimes a change of scenery helps, like Nates Mineshaft, but this doesn't make sense to me. I'm a big trainer/jockey handicapper, so I will wait and see on him today.

#9 Pants On Fire ML 9/2

He is back at a track he likes, and would be my dangerous play in this one. We know he can he can win at this level, has the speed to do it and has the tactical wherewithal to be there at the end. Kelly Breen has been quiet lately and is ready to break out again, and I like that he is keeping Napravnik on board. Don't be surprised to see him return to his Louisiana Derby form.

Selections:

3 - 1 - 4

Weekend Handicapping: Hit It Rich in the Orchid at GP Today

I thought we would go in a different direction today, and not look at the Florida Derby.  It's going to be an interesting race no doubt, is Union Rags on track for the Derby? and how good is El Padrino off the Risen Star? But instead of trading punches on that race, there is another race on the card that I think is loaded with contention, and will be exciting.

It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...

Contenders:

#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1

It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's.  She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts.  Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done.  J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.

#9 Keertana ML5/2 

What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level,  5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level  and has won over a $1,000,000.  She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races.  Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt.  Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.

#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1

This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf.  McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33.  It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.

Dark Horse:

#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1

Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer.  There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous.  I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?

Bombs Away:

#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1

This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.

Selections:

8 - 9 - 2

Weekend Handicapping: Romacaca looks like a Honey Fox @GP Today

Yesterday in the Rebel, I was happy to see the great performance by Optimizer.  I remember when he broke his maiden at Saratoga and thought this horse was going to be something.  He certainly has struggled, but yesterday he put on a great finish for place. He might not be a Derby contender, but he his going to be a solid 3YO.

Today, we head back to Gulfstream, and take a look at the G2 Honey Fox.  It's a one mile turf event for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards. A big field of 12 has entered for a purse of $150,000.  My favorite in this one is Romacaca.  I admit I am biased to her for she scored some nice payouts for me at Monmouth during the "Survival at the Shore" tournament last summer. Hard to pass her up, but there are some interesting ladies in this one. Anyway enough of memory lane ...

Contenders:

#3 Romacaca ML 4/1

Won five in a row, before giving way in her last two.  Four for eight on the GP turf, lifetime and this mare guns a nice consistent mid 90's Beyer's no matter where she runs. She is a graded winner, and has finished in the money at the G2 level.  Canani puts Rocco on board, that has been an excellent connection with 44% wins at GP.  I am biased towards her so she gets the top slot.

#8  Future Generation(IRE)  ML 3/1

It's well known that Graded place horses from GB/IRE or France are dangerous on their first or second outing in America.  She won her first start at GP in a $100OC event with a strong 93 Beyer. Clement has a solid record with horses who won their last start.  Her running style fits this race and she'll be there at the end.

#9  La Reine Lionne ML 5/1

She is making her first G2 appearance after a solid effort in a G3 event here at GP.  She has won two of four over GP turf, and her Beyer's are improving.  The angle here is Chad Brown having a super meet, hits 26% on turf races and he keeps JohnnyV in the irons.  She is another one that will be there at the end.

Dark Horse:

There are three of them in this race, #2 Bay to Bay and #7 Tapitsfly are worthy opponents.  The one I like is #10 Entrustment ML 8/1.

This a pure angle play, she is shipping in from the SoCal with three straight loses in Graded events, new trainer with Marty Wolfson and a Jockey switch.  She has shown the speed to run with these ladies and has been working well here at GP.  Her mother won 5 of 14 over the turf and the change of venue might suit her well today. The last time she took five months off she won of the bench, granted allowance company is not G2, but she does respond to freshening. Last point, Wolfson hits 29% when he takes over a new horse. Interesting to watch her 4YO debut.

Bombs Away:

#5 Cumulonimble  Ml 12/1

She is a lightly raced 6YO with a 7 for 15 record lifetime and 5 of 7 over turf.  Overall she has been on the board 13 of 15.  Her speed over the grass is comparable to the contenders, just not as consistent.  Her first two races of the season were consistent and she tallied a win and a show.  I like that Lezcano is back on board and Wayne Catalano is killing this meet with 29% win record.  Her running style is versatile, and expect to sit in the middle. Would not surprise me to see her win.

Selections:

3 - 8 - 9