Weekend Handicapping: A Hardened Wildcat in the Bayshore(G3)

We had a nice double last weekend.  Hit It Rich won the Orchid on Saturday, followed by Nate's Mineshaft taking the New Orleans Handicap.  Both paid handsome returns, Hit It Rich paid $7.40 and Nate's Mineshaft returned $20.80! Now if we could do that every weekend, right?  Today, we are at Aqueduct and going to look at a sprint race for 3YO's.  It's the Bayshore Handicap (G3) going 7 furlongs for a purse of $250,000. We have eight entered and several of them like to get on top quick, so don't be surprised to see a wire to wire finish in this one.

Contenders:

#6  Hardened Wildcat ML 2/1

This Chad Brown entry is gunning for his fourth in a row. He has worked through his conditions perfectly, posting improved Beyer's, and won his first feature well in hand.  His workouts have been nice and steady and the added furlong fits his running style. He will be coming on at the end, and with the front end speed in this one, look for him to fly by them at the wire.

#6 King & Crusader ML 8/1

I can't let this race be completely chalk!  He had a dismal 2YO campaign, but as a 3YO has won two of three. Toss out the route in the Gotham and you have a razor sharp Dutrow colt.  He has shown flashes of speed to be competitive and has had a nice workout pattern. He doesn't have to go forward with the others, he has shown he can sit near the front and win.  The Dutrow/Luzzi connection wins 35% and Dutrow hits 34% with 2nd off a layoff.

#1 Trinniberg ML 9/5

His recent win in the Swale(G2) was huge, posting a 99 Beyer in his 3YO debut.  Now he returns to NY where his record was good but no wins.  The problem I'm having is that race at GP was a huge jump in his speed fig's and that spells "bounce".  Everything lines up well I know, good post, two good workouts, and his connections are rock solid.  I could be way off here, but my instincts say "not today'.

Dark Horse:

#8 How Do I Win ML 5/1

This Pletcher charge has been a bit uneven in his short career. Has the speed to win this one, but his form cycle show's that he will not have it today. If you look back, you can see he has a four race run. His fourth race is the big effort win or lose, and then he trails off.  The redeeming play here is JohnnyV is back on board, and he rode in the two wins.  He has the ability to do it, but today will be a big test for him.

#3 Copy My Swagger ML 8/1

This will be dangerous one today. Has a nice 2YO season winning two of four and in the money in all of them.  As a 3YO he has shown steady improvement even though the winner circle has eluded him.  The cutback in distance will be a big help, even with a nice showing in the route last out.  He will be sitting in the first flight of horses and if the speed burns up, he will be ready to pounce.  Jacobson has a 23%/24% win on dirt sprints, and Cohen is off to a great start.  Like the DRF says, "things will need to break just right" and I think they can.

Bombs Away:

#2 Perfect Trippi ML 15/1

Won his maiden here last November on a muddy track. His first 3YO race he gave way to Hardened Wildcat at the wire.  He showed a nice improved Beyer in that race and look for him to continue in that direction. The angle here is Romans puts Nakatani back in the irons.  There is something about Cory at a price in features.  This cold has hit the board in all his races, held tough against some of these today, and like his chances to surprise, he might just take off and go wire to wire.

Selections:

6 - 5 - 1

I will be posting Play of the day over at my blog Monday through Friday. http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Is it Alpha day? or does he follow Hansen

Last weekend kicked off the Derby run with the Holy Bull at GP and Hansen one of the top 3YO’s had a tough day.  Stumbled at the start and couldn’t hold off a determined Algorithms.   Today we have another 3YO affair the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct.  This race will be a tad longer going a mile and a sixteenth over the inner track.  Seven horses are entered for the Purse of $200,000.  The top horse today will be Alpha and he deserves to be there, but like last week, you never know about lightly raced 3YO’s.  Our goal today is to find the horse that can upset him, and we have a decent field to do just that.

Contenders:

#7 Alpha ML 1/1

Other than a terrible day in the BC Juvenile, his record is outstanding.  His last effort here at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet shows he lost no confidence in his abilities.  He carries the best Beyer’s and is the class of the field.   The only vulnerability is not with the horse so much but that McLaughlin has a miserable graded stakes record.  There is no doubt it is his day to send a message to all Derby contenders.

#1  Hakama ML 5/1

This colt has the breeding and speed to take this race.  He has won at this distance on this same course; Trombetta is taking him through his conditions and ton of upside.   Will be the front runner and should hold his own against Alpha.  There is other speed in this race, so Pimental has to be careful; if he rides  him right he will be there at the end.  If those odds hold would be hard not to take him.

#6  Tiger Walk ML 6/1

This 3YO is a X factor, his first route effort he won coming off the pace and popped a 83 Beyer, that makes him competitive right off.  I like barns that run small strings and do well with what they have, and this crew is no exception.  He has shown he will rate off the leaders and if a speed duel materializes he would be in position to take over.  His workouts have been good and Karamanos knows how to get the most from him. Dangerous horse.

Dark Horse:

#4  King Kid ML 4/1

One of Dale Romans youngster moves up in class after a respectable showing in the GP Derby, finishing third.  His speed figures have improved and a big switch to Luzzi.  I agree with DRF, that Dale sees something with this colt going from a maiden win to a $100K stakes and right back to a G3.  We will see j

Bombs Away:

#3  Swag Daddy ML 10/1

He has won his last two, both stakes races here at Aqueduct over the inner track.  His Beyer’s have improved modestly, but not strong enough to stay with some of these boy’s.  He shows versatility by going to the front or laying off, so it will be interesting to see the tactics Dutrow and Alavarado use here.   I like him for the horse for course angle, and just how much upside does he have? This might be the race he really opens up; we’ve seen it countless times before with 3YO’s.  One more minor note, Dutrow wins 35% with winners last out, a strong record.

Selections:

7 – 1 – 6  

Weekend Handicapping: It will be a Captivating Lass today at Aqueduct

Last weekend we didn’t fare too badly.  We had our soft “Bombs Away”,  Apriority win and pay a nice $7.20 and then on Sunday the 1^st, CC’s Pal scored as we figured and paid $4.80.  The nice result was in the Mr. Prospector with Zero Rate Policy finishing second.  He had that race won but gave way at the last moment to Apriority.  So today we stay at Aqueduct and will play a stakes race for 3YO fillies.  It’s the 39^th running of the Busanda for a purse of $100,000.  This race is over the inner track going a mile and 70 yards on dirt.  There are seven girls entered and all lightly raced, which makes it a wide open affair. So let’s take a look …

Contenders:

# 5 Captivating Lass ML 2/1

I’ll admit this is a gimmick pick to a degree.  She won her first out going this distance at Parx handily.  She came back in a G2 and had a wonky day.  Now today McLaughlin pulls all the goodies out and uses Lasix for the first time, blinkers on and puts his hotshot rider (Luzzi) on board.  This has all the makings of a big bounce back effort.  Her last two workouts were solidand McLaughlin is having a nice season.

#1  Sweet Valentine ML 8/5

She has improved nicely in each of her three races (45-66-71) and ran tough in her first big stakes race.  Motion puts on Dominguez which is good.  So why do I have her second?  Just a hunch truthfully,  I’m not convinced of the distance.  Breeding says no problem and Motion has good sprint to route success but just not feeling it with her today.

#7  Terralba ML 10/1

She is the most experienced of the lot and looked destined to be a career maiden.  This is another hunch selection based on her effort over the inner track early in December.  It was a sloppy day and her performance was horrible but she showed a strong effort over the dirt at Laurel right before the Aqueduct race.  She posted a 70 off of a bobbled start.  Shuman is a crafty trainer and does well in these situations.   Alvarado is off to a good season and might make the difference with her.

Dark Horse:

#2  Winged Venus ML 12/1

This is one of those horses that might be still finding her upside.  She won a maiden claiming second out going a mile.  This is a big rise in class, but she might surprise us all.  With lightly raced 3YO they are still learning the craft and finding themselves, Badgett keeps Montalvo in the irons and she has shown consistent speed.  Not a dangerous entry but an interesting one.

Bombs Away:

#6  Almost a Valentine ML 20/1

I expect her odds to go stratospheric by post time.  Shipping in from Charlestown where she won her second outing by 6 ½.  Her speed fig’s don’t hold up against this crew of fillies but they did improve greatly.  So you just don’t know.  This is more of a breeding angle.  Her sire was a G3 winning router and the dam has produced three dirt route winners, one of them being a G1 winner, Rigoletta.

Selections:

5 - 1 - 7

Weekend Handicapping: One Last Dance in the Ladies at Aqueduct

Before we look at today’s race, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year!  We finished the year with our soft “Bombs Away” Apriority winning the Mr. Prospector and paid $7.20.  I’m also pleased how well Zero Rate Policy ran, almost held on to win it.  We will start the New Year off by heading up to Aqueduct and look at one of the oldest handicap races around.  It’s the 141^st running of the Ladies Handicap for 3YO fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth over the always tough inner track for a purse of $75,000.  We have only six entered so I will review the contenders and the one Bombs Away.  

Contenders:

#3  One Last Dance ML 6/1

There is no doubt the #1 CC’s Pal should be in this spot, but with a morning line of 8/5 and knowing she will played heavily, I had to go to the upset factor.   This lightly raced 4YO looks poised to break out and show us how good she really can be.  She won her last over the inner track in a route going away, her Beyer’s are progressing and I believe Dale Romans has found the perfect spot for her today.  She is coming right back off that win, and that spells fit and ready.

#1  CC’s Pal ML 8/5

She is tough to go against, Dutrow trained and on a nice streak since he took over.  She also won her last outing on the inner track, albeit a sprint, but there is no denying her speed and how she likes to stay to the front.  Her Beyer’s of 91-85-91 make her extremely tough for this group to overhaul, she has the speed to go wire to wire.  Dutrow had a great 2011 season, especially in the stakes area, brings Alvarado right back on her (where they have been winning 45% together).   I can’t argue against her, just don’t like the value.

#5  Katy Now ML 7/5

This race is almost looking totally chalk, I have to admit these three really stick out on the form.   This is a tough 5YO with the Pletcher/Dominquez connection.  Won at Belmont two back in the Dispute and made a decent showing in the G2 Go For Wand here at Aqueduct in November.  In that raced she got bumped at the start and came out wide and showed her toughness, by staying close and didn’t pack it in.  Her Beyer’s are right there to win this race and have to call her the dangerous one, but the price value isn’t going to be there.

Bombs Away:

#2  Karmageddon ML 10/1

She looks to be a totally a horse for courses play at Monmouth. I’m going to hang my hat on her last win, which was a route in a $60,000 handicap (it was against state breds) and she popped a 81 Beyer.  Then she ran in a $100K at Suffolk and finished a strong 3^rd after a slow start, posting an improving Beyer of 85.  The winner of that race has come back to win again, so using the key race angle here.  She has been off since October and has had decent workouts over the inner track.  She could be finding herself at 5 and ready for a big race. 

Selections:

3 – 1 – 5   

Weekend Handicapping: The Hunch for today is Parent's Honor at Aqueduct

The Sugar Swirl turned out to be a nice 1 -2 with Pomeroy Pistol and Pica Slew paying a $53 exacta.   We have been a run now, with three in a row and today we head back north to Aqueduct.  Since sprints have been working for us, we will look at The Hunch Stakes for $60,000 for 3YO, going 6 furlongs on the inner track.  It’s a small field of 6 so no dark horse today, in fact, it looks like only 3 horses are really ready to win it.

Contenders:

#2  Parent’s Honor ML 5/2

He has won 2 in a row and is moving up in class.  I have a soft spot for this angle and usually play it if the horse looks ready, and he does.  Improving Beyer’s over the last three (79-88-91), last 2 wins came against older horses and Dutrow has been hot of late.  It appears the pace suits him and Dominguez takes over, always a plus.  Some minor points, he has won 4 of 8 as a 3YO and posted a 99 back in June.

#1 Crossbow ML 1/1

Hard not to like except he will be an underlay and no value.  He has won 2 races in 4 attempts, including breaking his maiden on the inner track here at Aqueduct.  Excellent Beyer’s, with the last being a 99.  The horse that beat him last out has gone on to win a $75K stakes race, and the breeding is dynamite.  It looks like McLaughlin has him primed to go and can wire a field easily.  The only thing and not sure if it’s contractual, but Dominquez moves to the #2 and doesn’t stay on what looks like a lock.

#3  Bug Juice ML 5/1

This would be my dark horse in a larger field.   He is a classic bouncer and we should get a nice run today if he stays to form.  He likes to rate just off the pace and with the front end speed today, he might be in a good spot to collect a winning ticket.  You have to respect his 2YO campaign, winning 3 of 5, including 2 sizeable stakes races at Finger Lakes.  Levine has a good record with 2ndoff wins at 28% and Cohen takes over in the irons.

Bombs Away:

#5  Sam Sparkle ML 8/1

He is another bouncer who can string a couple of good races together.  Last out was an 85 in an Allowance race for older horses so history says another good race today.  He has won on the inner track back in the day and Contessa is a trainer you can’t ignore.  He puts Luzzi on this time which is an improvement and the workouts have been crisp.  The only knock is 1 win in 13 attempts, but a cut back in distance could be the tonic today.

Note:  I left off the #1a Mysticism deliberately for if you take Crossbow you get him anyway.  He has all the ability to push Bug Juice off the board.  He will go to the front and set the pace, can win it too.

Selection:

2 – 1 – 3  

Weekend Handicapping: Will Haynesfield finally light that Cigar today

Today for Weekend Handicapping we will go to New York and take another try at Aqueduct.  We will look at the 23^rd running of the Cigar Mile (G1) for 3YO and upward battling for a purse of $250,000.  We have a field of six and most have battled each over the course of the season.   Since we only have six horses today there will be no dark horse listed.

Contenders:

#3  Haynesfield ML 4/1

I’ve been a big fan of this 5YO and 2011 has been a disappointment.  After a smashing 3 of 6 in 2010, we all but thought he would dominate this year, but those 2 starts in graded company were duds.  He bounced back in the Empire Classic and might be finding his groove now.  Three races don’t make a season, and he might not have been in shape for the Met or Westchester.  Asmussen is a crafty trainer and Dominquez stays aboard.   He tended to be a bouncer as a 4YO but so far his Beyer’s, while lackluster for a G1 entry, have been somewhat consistent.  We know he can win, the price will be solid, but is today the day?

 #5 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5

I liked this 3YO in the BC Classic, and sadly had a rough trip after getting close.    He’s cutting back in distance and has the speed to go wire to wire.  The price won’t be there and is probably why I put the #3 on top.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win if Mott turns him loose.  Solid Beyer’s, Lezcano rides him nicely and knows how to win.  Looking back, he won the Nashua (G2) going a mile wire to wire at this track, possible repeat here.

#1a  Caixa Eletronica ML 5/2

If I’m forced to choose between the Pletcher entries I go with the #1a. Cali is too much of a bouncer for me, and has only won at the G3 level, so not so sure today is his day.  Granted Caixa hasn’t won at this level either, but you can’t ignore the 6YO improving Beyer’s (100-99-96). Looking at the PP’s, he has had 4 races at a mile and won 3 of them.  This might be his distance and Johnny V stays aboard.  He will be in the mix.

Bombs Away:

#6 Sangree ML 5/1

I would call this one a soft Bombs Away, but there is a good possibility he will be the real overlay in this field.  He has posted back to back 100+ Beyer’s , and has had a boat load of near missed up and down the Graded Stakes ladder.  This 6YO shows he has the ability to be there at the end, the question does he have the heart to win.  Maragh is doing well and stays in the irons, and maybe if he pushes to the front or closer like in the Birdstone he might win this one.     

Selections:

3 - 5 - 1a       

Weekend Handicapping: No Melody in the Long Island (G3) today all Emerald

Today for Weekend Handicapping we are heading back to New York and take a look at the 55^th running of the Long Island Handicap (G3), going three turns at Aqueduct (1 ½ miles) on grass for a purse of $150,000.  A field of 8 fillies and mares has entered for this last graded race of the year in New York. 

    

Like many G3 races we get today a bevy of horses who are trying to find their class level, return to past form or making an effort to break free of the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” label.  This is a tough race to handicap for we don’t know which horse finds itself ready to win today.  There will be three contenders and one “Bombs Away”.  You can consider the remaining 3 of 4 to be dark horses, the  #8 Akris Queen doesn’t fit this race at all.

Contenders:

#6  Emerald Beech ML 8/5

She will be the favorite and so no value for this race.  You can’t ignore this 5YO mare that has won 4 of 6 this season, including the Glen Falls(G3) and a decent 4^th in the G1 Flower Bowl.  Her Beyer’s are the best of this group, and she has won at this distance.  There really isn’t much speed in this race, and her versatile running style suits this pace.  Solis has ridden her well and see no reason for it not to continue.

#4 Hasay (GB) ML 8/1

This lightly raced filly is making her 5^th start of her 4YO season and was doing quite nicely until her last outing at Keeneland.  She was in a tough field in the Dowager and finished up the track going 5 wide.  What makes her attractive today, is her consistent Beyer’s (79-80-88-82) and she her trainer Graham Motion is a sharpshooter with turf horses, winning 20%.  The real angle for me here is Morales is back in the irons.  He rode her to victory two back in the Omnibus $75K and if he races her forwardly like he did in that one, she should be there at the end.

#7 Mekong Melody (IRE) ML 5/2

I will probably regret this, but the only reason I have her here is she is the defending champion of this race, otherwise she wouldn’t even be listed.   She had a solid 5YO campaign but this season is 0 for 6. Granted all of her races have been at the G1 or 2 level and had some decent showings but her racing line is filled with troubled trips, flattened out, no threat etc.  Attfield is a great trainer and one I admire greatly, but this mare is a real puzzle at 6YO. She showed great Beyers in July but hasn’t been the same since.  Maragh is riding her and that does count for something, if Attfield has turned her around then she could be the one, but not so sure today.

“Bombs Away”

#3 Musical Rain ML 6/1

She won coming off the bench in an OC$50K at Belmont and has shown flashes of good speed in G3 company.  There is no doubt it will require a big effort today.  I like the Romans/ Dominguez connection and if Ramon rides up and tight like last outing she could surprise and deliver the goods.  This 4YO filly might be ready to step up today.

Selections:

6 – 4 – 7

Will be handicapping the Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park at my blog, http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/