Just when you think you've got this game figured out, along comes Mucho Macho Man with Mike Smith and smacks you back down to reality. I'll admit I didn't give him much consideration in the Suburban yesterday at Belmont. He took control of the race from the beginning and just dominated, congratulations to his connections. Today we head back up to Woodbine for a turf affair for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. It's the Grade 2, Dancing Smartly for a purse of $300,000 and there is a field of seven going the mile and an eighth. We've been a bit off since a great start in June, so let's see if a race on the weeds brings us back.
Contenders:
#7 Marketing Mix ML 1/1
I'm not taking the easy way out going with the chalk selection, but when you look at this 4YO filly what can you say? She is coming off a nice win in the Nassau (G2) here on the turf, giving her five of seven on turf. Her speed is consistent, seems to win where ever she goes, and two for two at Woodbine, with two solids results at this distance on turf. Tom Proctor is solid in this situation and with Leparoux having this filly wired, she is going to be hard to beat, regardless of the odds.
#1 Indian Pond ML 4/1
This lightly raced 4YO has two turf wins to her credit, both at Woodbine. Her last effort, and her 4YO debut was a strong one losing to Marketing Mix by two lengths in the Grade 2, Nassau. She has won at this distance back in October over the synthetic here at Woodbine and has shown a burst of speed since turning four. She will come off the pace with Inglorious and that will be interesting. I look for her to have an even better effort in her second start.
#4 Kissable(IRE) ML 6/1
I have a tendency to play the first time UK/Euro starter on turf, and would have put her first if Marketing Mix hadn't been in the mix. She has acquitted herself well in some big stakes races in Ireland, showed good speed on soft surfaces. Most overseas turf runners respond well to our harder turf, so I can see filly being there at the end. Roger Attfield is a crafty trainer, even though his record with these first time starters is zero for eleven.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
# 2 Inglorious ML 5/2
She will be making her third start on grass today and her second effort against Marketing Mix. Two back she finished second coming five wide, and with the added distance see no reason she can't overhaul her. We know this filly can win big races and Carroll has been working her well. The big angle is the change to Husbands, who wins 24% on grass. If we can get 3/1 or better she would be the play.
Selection:
7 - 1 - 4
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Showing posts with label Turf Routes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turf Routes. Show all posts
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Star's will shine in the Redondo today
Yesterday's Belmont turned out to be an exciting race, with Union Rags getting the rail to open and he took it to win. In watching the replay, I wasn't sure if it would open and he sure looked pinned in on the rail. Afterwards, Mike Smith took the blame for letting it open up and JohnnyV said they got lucky. No matter what, it was a good race, exciting and happy to see Union Rags back in form. The stakes schedule is quiet today, so I am going to take a look at the Redondo Beach turf race at Hollywood Park. It's a mile race for $70,000 for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards. There are eight ladies going forward, so I will have three contenders and one dark horse/bombs away selection.
Contenders:
#7 All Star Heart ML 3/1
She will be making her 5YO debut in this feature race. Last season she won 5 of 7, including her last race the Las Palmas (G2). When you look at her PP's you see a tale of two horses here. Once she came under Ron McAnally tutleage, she ripped off those 5 wins going a mile on grass. Her Beyer's have been real consistent, she has won once here on the Hollywood turf and has won coming off the bench before. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and she looks well positioned to take this one.
#6 Star Billing ML 5/2
She too will be making her 2012 debut today as a 4YO. Her 3YO season resulted in winning 3 of 7, most of those races were graded affairs. She has won twice at this distance, the Senorita (G3) and the Matriarch (G1), both races came at Hollywood Park. The main reason I've have her in second today, is that in her last break from racing she came up empty at Keeneland. She has been gone for over 6 months and while her workouts look good and Sherreffs does will with layoffs, I think she'll need this one today to find her footing.
#5 A Jealous Woman ML 5/1
She had a great 3YO season winning 4 races, including 2 over the Hollywood grass. Since then she has not done much, winning only once in an Optional Claimer last February. The key angle here is the jockey switch to Bejarano by Meza and putting her back at a mile. She is 2 for 4 at this distance and on the board in all 4. It might be asking a lot today against the group, but she likes to race up front and that might be a difference maker.
Bombs Away:
#8 Good Karma (ITY) ML 12/1
The angle here with this 4YO filly is the following: shipping in and a new trainer in Cecil, jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and keeping her at a mile. We can see from her results in Italy, she does have talent and often with a change of scenery, especially California, horses like her wake up. It'll be interesting to watch regardless.
Contenders:
#7 All Star Heart ML 3/1
She will be making her 5YO debut in this feature race. Last season she won 5 of 7, including her last race the Las Palmas (G2). When you look at her PP's you see a tale of two horses here. Once she came under Ron McAnally tutleage, she ripped off those 5 wins going a mile on grass. Her Beyer's have been real consistent, she has won once here on the Hollywood turf and has won coming off the bench before. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and she looks well positioned to take this one.
#6 Star Billing ML 5/2
She too will be making her 2012 debut today as a 4YO. Her 3YO season resulted in winning 3 of 7, most of those races were graded affairs. She has won twice at this distance, the Senorita (G3) and the Matriarch (G1), both races came at Hollywood Park. The main reason I've have her in second today, is that in her last break from racing she came up empty at Keeneland. She has been gone for over 6 months and while her workouts look good and Sherreffs does will with layoffs, I think she'll need this one today to find her footing.
#5 A Jealous Woman ML 5/1
She had a great 3YO season winning 4 races, including 2 over the Hollywood grass. Since then she has not done much, winning only once in an Optional Claimer last February. The key angle here is the jockey switch to Bejarano by Meza and putting her back at a mile. She is 2 for 4 at this distance and on the board in all 4. It might be asking a lot today against the group, but she likes to race up front and that might be a difference maker.
Bombs Away:
#8 Good Karma (ITY) ML 12/1
The angle here with this 4YO filly is the following: shipping in and a new trainer in Cecil, jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and keeping her at a mile. We can see from her results in Italy, she does have talent and often with a change of scenery, especially California, horses like her wake up. It'll be interesting to watch regardless.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream
Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win. I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder. Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000. It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Hit It Rich in the Orchid at GP Today
I thought we would go in a different direction today, and not look at the Florida Derby. It's going to be an interesting race no doubt, is Union Rags on track for the Derby? and how good is El Padrino off the Risen Star? But instead of trading punches on that race, there is another race on the card that I think is loaded with contention, and will be exciting.
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1
It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's. She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts. Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done. J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.
#9 Keertana ML5/2
What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level, 5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level and has won over a $1,000,000. She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races. Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt. Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.
#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1
This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf. McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33. It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.
Dark Horse:
#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1
Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer. There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous. I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?
Bombs Away:
#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1
This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.
Selections:
8 - 9 - 2
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