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Saturday, January 7, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: It will be a Captivating Lass today at Aqueduct

Last weekend we didn’t fare too badly.  We had our soft “Bombs Away”,  Apriority win and pay a nice $7.20 and then on Sunday the 1st, CC’s Pal scored as we figured and paid $4.80.  The nice result was in the Mr. Prospector with Zero Rate Policy finishing second.  He had that race won but gave way at the last moment to Apriority.  So today we stay at Aqueduct and will play a stakes race for 3YO fillies.  It’s the 39th running of the Busanda for a purse of $100,000.  This race is over the inner track going a mile and 70 yards on dirt.  There are seven girls entered and all lightly raced, which makes it a wide open affair. So let’s take a look …

Contenders:

# 5 Captivating Lass ML 2/1

I’ll admit this is a gimmick pick to a degree.  She won her first out going this distance at Parx handily.  She came back in a G2 and had a wonky day.  Now today McLaughlin pulls all the goodies out and uses Lasix for the first time, blinkers on and puts his hotshot rider (Luzzi) on board.  This has all the makings of a big bounce back effort.  Her last two workouts were solidand McLaughlin is having a nice season.

#1  Sweet Valentine ML 8/5

She has improved nicely in each of her three races (45-66-71) and ran tough in her first big stakes race.  Motion puts on Dominguez which is good.  So why do I have her second?  Just a hunch truthfully,  I’m not convinced of the distance.  Breeding says no problem and Motion has good sprint to route success but just not feeling it with her today.

#7  Terralba ML 10/1

She is the most experienced of the lot and looked destined to be a career maiden.  This is another hunch selection based on her effort over the inner track early in December.  It was a sloppy day and her performance was horrible but she showed a strong effort over the dirt at Laurel right before the Aqueduct race.  She posted a 70 off of a bobbled start.  Shuman is a crafty trainer and does well in these situations.   Alvarado is off to a good season and might make the difference with her.

Dark Horse:

#2  Winged Venus ML 12/1

This is one of those horses that might be still finding her upside.  She won a maiden claiming second out going a mile.  This is a big rise in class, but she might surprise us all.  With lightly raced 3YO they are still learning the craft and finding themselves, Badgett keeps Montalvo in the irons and she has shown consistent speed.  Not a dangerous entry but an interesting one.

Bombs Away:

#6  Almost a Valentine ML 20/1

I expect her odds to go stratospheric by post time.  Shipping in from Charlestown where she won her second outing by 6 ½.  Her speed fig’s don’t hold up against this crew of fillies but they did improve greatly.  So you just don’t know.  This is more of a breeding angle.  Her sire was a G3 winning router and the dam has produced three dirt route winners, one of them being a G1 winner, Rigoletta.

Selections:

5 - 1 - 7

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