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Sunday, March 4, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Could be Broken Dreams @GP Turf Sprint today

The Battaglia was one exciting race yesterday.  I have to give Ill Conceived credit for digging in and fighting hard against State of Play.  That is two loses at the wire now in 3YO Derby hopeful races!  I'm not sure if Ill Conceived is in the same league as Mark Valeski, but they both showed grit and toughness.  For today's Weekend Handicapping we are heading back to Gulfstream Park, for the Ladies Turf Sprint for 4YO fillies and mares, racing for a purse of $70,000.  It's over the turf course going 5 furlongs and a field of 10 have entered, so don't blink or you'll miss it.

Contenders:

#5 Suzzona ML 10/1

This 8YO mare is battle tested and knows how to win, 18 for 30 over the turf. She is coming off a long layoff, but her history shows that is a good thing (if I counted right she won four of eight after layoffs).  Her speed fig's are competitive with this group, as well as, her class.  She had won four before losing to finish out her 7YO campaign.  She has shown she can win wherever they race her, and the Feliciano/Pimental connection is a stout one. Actually, Feliciano's record is outstanding with these kind of horses, period.  I don't think we will see 10/1 when the gate opens, but anything near it makes her a solid play.

#2 Broken Dreams ML 5/2

Proctor brings her here after a rough time in the BC, and like the #5 has no problems with winning off layoffs. Her speed is the best of the bunch, won at the G3 level, and her workouts have been outstanding. They are bringing in Lezcano, who won the Big Cap yesterday at Santa Anita, that says they are ready for this one.  If I do have a concern here is that this race might be a tad too short for her running style.  She is going to have to get up there early or no chance.

#4 Indulgence ML 4/1

Whenever she has run over the turf her results have been solid, but this race will be a step up for the 5YO mare.  Her turf speed is okay, not quite fast enough to beat off the top two, but she does have the ability to surprise.  What makes her a factor is her three spins on the GP turf and finishing in the money twice. Not necessarily a horse of course, but it does make her dangerous. Wolfson keeps Elvis on board, and they are having a nice meet together.

Dark Horse:

#6 Cascadilla Falls ML 4/1

Bill Mott drops this lightly raced 4YO filly into an interesting spot. She won two of four last year over the turf and now makes her 2012 debut.  She has the front end speed to take off and go wire to wire, her Beyers are at 89 in these events, and she could improve dramatically. Her workouts have been outstanding and today Prado takes over.  Mott has excellent stakes record, and scored a big one yesterday at Santa Anita, could be a double for him this weekend. Dangerous horse with the front end style.

Bombs Away:

#8  Inspired ML 8/1

She is coming off a win at the Fair Grounds against older horses, with a 92 Beyer in the Pan Zareta ($75K).  This 5YO mare loves to get out front and will do the same today. She beat Suzzona back in the Jenny Walden ($100K) last summer, and then Suzzona turned the tables on her next time out.  You have to like Iwinski in this spot, his record shows when he puts one in like this they usually win.

Selections:

5 - 2 - 4

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