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Sunday, November 20, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Duelling fillies in the Bessarabian(G3) Today

In analyzing the River City yesterday I mentioned that Blue Street might need some freshening, well it looks like I might need the freshening.  What a nice race Robbie Albarado displayed in rallying off and winning that race.  I wasn’t disappointed by Tajaaweed, he raced in a good position but it looked like some traffic may have pinched him off down the stretch, that’s horse racing.

Today we go back to Canada and will take a look at the 27th running of the Bessarabian, Grade 3.  It’s for fillies and mares, 3YO+ going 7 furlongs on synthetic for a purse of $150,000.  We have a solid group of lightly raced 4YO fillies, and there is plenty of front end speed that several can wire this field.

Contenders:

#6 Embur’s Song ML 5/2

I like this filly regardless of the lack of value in the odds.  Throw out the Spinster (G1) and you have a speedster that is having an excellent 4YO campaign.  She has won 3 G3 races this season, 2 here at Woodbine.  I know Atlantic Hurricane beat her in the Seaway back in September, but I sense Pletcher has her ready this time.  Her workouts of late are improved over the ones prior to the Spinster and he puts Husbands back on her.  She has proven herself to go to the front regardless of distance and go all the way.  I don’t consider her a cut back angle in this one; she is right where she belongs at 7 panels.

#9 Atlantic Hurricane ML 7/2

This filly should be the favorite when the gates open.  If you think the #6 is having a fine 4YO year this one is even better at 5 wins in 7 trips.   She’s got the Beyer’s that say wire to wire and Ramsammy handles her perfectly.  She has one G3 to her credit, the Seaway here at Woodbine.  Unless she gets into trouble, or being outside effects her, she will be there dueling at the end.

#3 Ariana D ML 3/1

This is the one filly that has beaten Atlantic Hurricane in the Avowal Stakes ($101K) here at Woodbine.  But she has been beaten by Embur’s Song, so what you have is a round robin of fillies.  She likes to lay back and if the speedballs blow the pace apart, she will be right there to pick up the pieces.  Of interesting note, she won this race last year before it became a G3 level race.  She has the speed to do it, and likes this distance, winning 3 of 4 lifetime at 7 panels.

Dark Horse:

#2 Zermatt ML 8/1

This 4YO is making her 4th start of the season and her first G3 attempt.  She won her last outing at Keeneland in an Allowance event for non winners of 2.  She looks versatile enough to go out with the others or layoff.  Wilson gets her for the first time and will be interesting where Pletcher wants her in this one.  She’s not as fast as the top three but she is so lightly raced we don’t know where her ceiling is yet.  The price makes her intriguing, and if the top 3 get silly and knock each other around, she has the ability to sneak by them and win this one.

Bombs Away:

#5  Mullins Beach ML 12/1

This will be a trainer angle play here.  This will be Josie Carroll’s second attempt with this 5YO filly.  She seems to do better on grass and has raced well here at Woodbine.  She can pop some competitive Beyer’s that say she can run with these girls, it’s going to get down to where the rate her in this one.  I just like Carroll, Woodbine and this entry being a mare.  She’s not Inglorious for sure, but just got a feeling.

Selections:

6 – 9 – 3  

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