You've probably seen a news item for today that Congress is conducting hearings for Race Day Meds.
What you may not know is that a Bill has been introduced in both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives that would amend the Interstate Horse Racing Act. The Bill would eliminate race day meds and establish a "three strikes and you're out" penalty system for violators.
The text of the Bill can be found here:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/s886/text
We at HANA are asking you the horseplayer to tell us what you think about Federal intervention and race day meds.
Link to a short survey about the Bill:
Click Here.
Please let us know what you think. We will publish the survey results in a few days.
Alert!
Monday, April 30, 2012
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Derby Conference Call Scheduled For Friday With Doyle, Maloney & Gregory
HANA (The Horseplayers Association of North America) is very pleased to make the following special event announcement:
HANA KY Derby Day Card Conference Call:
When: 8:00 pm Eastern - Fri May 4, 2012
Attendee Dial-in #: (712) 432-1001
Attendee Access Code: 469962956#
We at HANA have assembled the following panel:
John Doyle - 2011 NHC Tournament Champion, Professional Horseplayer
Bob Gregory - 2012 World Series of Handicapping Tournament Champion
Mike Maloney - HANA VP, Professional Horseplayer
Jeff Platt - Horseplayer and HANA President
HANA members (and horseplayers everywhere) are invited to call in and listen to our panel talk about the races on the KY Derby Day Card. Space is limited to the first 1000 callers (on a first come first served basis.) Note that the dial in number is not toll free. (Having a good long distance plan helps.)
Questions can be submitted live via web chat and email. During the call we will have people monitoring the War Room at Paceadvantage.com and questions will be taken live.
Link to the War Room:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/WRtips.html
Questions can also be submitted via email live during the call or ahead of time at: derbychat@hanaweb.org.
You can also submit questions live during the call using the Derby Chat link on the HANA website:
http://horseplayersassociation.org/derbychat.html
Make plans to join us & to keep up to date on the event and with HANA, please sign up here. It's free!
HANA KY Derby Day Card Conference Call:
When: 8:00 pm Eastern - Fri May 4, 2012
Attendee Dial-in #: (712) 432-1001
Attendee Access Code: 469962956#
We at HANA have assembled the following panel:
John Doyle - 2011 NHC Tournament Champion, Professional Horseplayer
Bob Gregory - 2012 World Series of Handicapping Tournament Champion
Mike Maloney - HANA VP, Professional Horseplayer
Jeff Platt - Horseplayer and HANA President
HANA members (and horseplayers everywhere) are invited to call in and listen to our panel talk about the races on the KY Derby Day Card. Space is limited to the first 1000 callers (on a first come first served basis.) Note that the dial in number is not toll free. (Having a good long distance plan helps.)
Questions can be submitted live via web chat and email. During the call we will have people monitoring the War Room at Paceadvantage.com and questions will be taken live.
Link to the War Room:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/WRtips.html
Questions can also be submitted via email live during the call or ahead of time at: derbychat@hanaweb.org.
You can also submit questions live during the call using the Derby Chat link on the HANA website:
http://horseplayersassociation.org/derbychat.html
Make plans to join us & to keep up to date on the event and with HANA, please sign up here. It's free!
Weekending Handicapping: The Fury at Woodbine
Today we head north to Woodbine to look at the 57th running of The Fury. It's a seven furlong race for 3YO fillies (Ontario bred) and the purse is $150,000. There is a field of eight and as I write this no scratches. Most will have Mark Casse's #2 Northern Passion as the favorite and suspect she will go off as such. She did have a good 2YO campaign, and her best efforts were on turf. However, I don't figure her in this one today. So with that said let's take a look at the rest of the field ...
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Contenders:
#7 Casa Loma ML 5/2
She has won twice at this distance at Woodbine and had a nice 3YO debut in the Star Shoot ($166K), finishing second to Tu Endie Wei. I believe Tiller was using that race as a prep for this one and she is ready for seven panels today. If you throw out the two route races at the end of last year you have one formidable sprint filly. She likes to press the pace and there is enough speed in this race to suit her style and should be there at the end.
#1 Kitty's Got Class ML 6/1
She was three of four at Woodbine as a 2YO, winning three straight before a tiring performance in her last race of the season. The training regimen has been a steady diet of 5f works as to build her stamina and would expect a big improvement today in her 3YO debut. DePaudo who wins 21% in stakes races and puts Da Silva back on were they have been hitting at a large ROI of $3.94! She will be the early speed in this race with #4 Dene Court and wouldn't be surprised to see her go all the way.
#4 Dene Court ML 2/1
Mark Casse other entry and thinking she will be Northern Passion's rabbit. She likes to get out in front having gone wire to wire in her maiden debut then trying the same in her next outing, the Shady Well ($151K), finishing second. She posted two strong Beyer's (79 - 78) in those sprints and today as a 3YO moves to seven furlongs. The big issue has been the nine month layoff but then she won at first asking as maiden. Pedigree says she can go this distance and her workouts have been good. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that will help. She is another I wouldn't be surprised to see take off and go all the way.
Dark Horse:
#8 Rose and Shine ML 8/1
Had an aggressive 2YO season racing seven times and hitting the board in five of them, including three wins. Her two post maiden wins were in stakes races at six and a half and a mile and sixteenth. It looks like her 3YO debut in the Star Shoot was a mess going wide on the wrong lead. I would expect her to improve today and you have to like Biamonte horses in these spots. She likes to stalk the pace which might work for her if the two front runners get carried away. I like her at this distance and the crafty Stein takes the reins which is always interesting.
Bombs Away:
#3 Logan's Peak ML 12/1
She won her maiden claiming at this distance at Woodbine in her second asking. In her 3YO debut she ran decently in the Star Shoot gaining a show finish and a nice Beyer improve. The racing line states she got off on the wrong step and flashed a slow rally. Almost like her first maiden race, thinking she is the type that needs one before firing. She likes to stalk the pace which might work to her advantage with this pace. Gonzalez wins 21% with second off the layoff and keeps Wilson on board. It will take a big effort but she has the potential to win it.
Selections:
7 - 1 - 4
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: It's the Boy's in the Westchester(G3)
Today we have the 84th running of the Westchester (G3) at Belmont. It's for 3YO and upwards going a mile for a purse of $150,000. There is a field of 7 entered (no scratches at this writing) and it's a highly contentious group. Anyone of them has a shot at winning this one, three are coming off the bench and we have a couple of G1 winners. Since it's a short field I will focus on the three contenders and one dark horse/Bombs Away opportunity.
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Contenders:
#1 Boys At Tosconova ML 5/2
I know he hasn't posted the big Beyer's like some of the others and he hasn't won a graded race in awhile, but you can't ignore his eight for eight in the money either. Other factors are one for two at Belmont, two for two at this distance, and he has improved in each of his last three races. He has been working out well and has won twice after layoffs. Richard Dutrow has one of the best records with layoffs and returning winners. I also like he has Dominguez back in the irons. His pressing style fits this group and see no reason that this lightly raced 4YO doesn't have a big race today.
#6 To Honor and Serve ML 7/5
Frankly, the morning line should be even money on him. He has the decided class edge winning one G1, the Cigar Mile in November, and three G2 races in his career. Like the #2, he is two for two at a mile and one for one here at Belmont (his maiden first try). There is no doubt he has the speed to get on top of this group and be gone. The only reason I have him in the place slot his that he hasn't done well off layoffs. He might be one that needs a race before finding his groove again, not a bad thing, but some horses need one.
#5 Marylin's Buy ML 6/1
He has won two in a row as a 6YO, the last outing being the G3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He seems to have responded well to Anthony Dutrow training and seems versatile going a mile or longer. He had a bullet workout a week ago and looks ready to go today. His running style is to stay close which will put him in a good spot if the front two falter. I also like the JohnnyV is taking over the reins today, a big plus.
Dark Horse/Bombs Away:
#7 Bold Deed ML 12/1
He is taking a big step up in class today. He has been handling state breds for most of his career with one minor stakes race to his credit. He likes the mile distance and will definitely take off and try to go wire to wire. Michael Hushion does well in this situations winning 21% in stakes races and his dirt/route record is really good. His workouts say he is ready, get's Castellano for this one and I like his chances to upset this group.
Selections:
1 - 6 - 5
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Atlantic Hurricane hits Woodbine Today
The lesson learned yesterday in the Sixty Sails at Hawthorne is not to ignore Donnie Von Hemel horses! She's All In ran a great race and we should have seen it. In looking back at her PP's it was obvious she was ready to go, but I let the lack of distance cloud my judgement. I even had Von Hemel, 27% stakes win circled and let it get away. I won't say never again, for I know I will overlook them again and again, that's what makes handicapping so much fun.
Today, we go back to Woodbine and look at the 60th running of the Whimsical (G3) for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on the synthetic for a purse of $150,000. We have a field of ten, most making their 2012 debuts and lot's of speed in this one.
Contenders:
#4 Atlantic Hurricane ML 2/1
She had a monster 4YO season here at Woodbine, winning six of eight, including the Bessbarian (G3) in her season finale. Her last two races she went off at 3/1 and won both with 90+ Beyer's. Now she is ready to continue that season into her 5YO campaign. Her workouts have been good and her running style fit's this group well. I've got two concerns, she is coming off a long layoff, and the only time that occurred she finished second, and a jockey switch from Ramsammy to Olguin. Not saying these issues should have a large impact, but they are something to consider. Regardless, she is the one to beat.
#10 Roxy Gap ML 7/2
She started her 4YO campaign with a rough trip down at Gulfstream Park, having to be steadied and then bumped. What is positive that it didn't knock her off for she finished third on turf. Mark Casse brings her home where she has won three of four and two of those stakes races. Casse has an excellent record on synthetic (21%) and turf/synthetic angle (24%). Her workouts have been solid and she will press the pace which put's her in good position with the speed here today. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that is a big positive.
#2 Rock the Moon ML 12/1
This 4YO is another Mark Casse entry and I really like her chances in this race. We know she likes the Woodbine synthetic winning four of seven, has flashed plus 90 Beyer's and can sprint. Her workouts have been great and Casse puts his gunner Moreno (21%) on board. No doubt she is moving up in class for this will be her first stakes/graded event but I suspect we are going to see a big improvement. She'll gallop in the second flight and if the speed crumbles she will be there.
Dark Horse:
#1 Sweet Cassiopeia ML 6/1
This filly will be making her 4YO debut and she is the early foot in this event. She won her last three here at Woodbine sprinting and increased her Beyer's each time. Her workouts have been outstanding, we should see a big improvement as she has matured and McAleney stays aboard. She moved through her conditions after winning her maiden last year, and now takes a big step in her debut. If she builds off those last three races this season she could go wire to wire today.
Bombs Away:
#7 Moonlit Beauty ML 20/1
She has been more successful running on turf in her career at Woodbine, but she has posted three wins on synthetic. Why I gravitate to her is that she posted some sprint speed back when she was a 4YO, granted it was turf but I just have a feeling about her today. Her workouts have been good on synthetic, her connections put Da Silva back in the saddle and cutting her back a bit might help. The other item is that she has won off a layoff in the Belle Geste ($100K) going seven furlongs. Maybe an overreach here but I like her the best of the rest.
Selections: 4 - 10 - 2
Remember I blog at my site Monday through Friday (and a Saturday Night Special) at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Today, we go back to Woodbine and look at the 60th running of the Whimsical (G3) for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on the synthetic for a purse of $150,000. We have a field of ten, most making their 2012 debuts and lot's of speed in this one.
Contenders:
#4 Atlantic Hurricane ML 2/1
She had a monster 4YO season here at Woodbine, winning six of eight, including the Bessbarian (G3) in her season finale. Her last two races she went off at 3/1 and won both with 90+ Beyer's. Now she is ready to continue that season into her 5YO campaign. Her workouts have been good and her running style fit's this group well. I've got two concerns, she is coming off a long layoff, and the only time that occurred she finished second, and a jockey switch from Ramsammy to Olguin. Not saying these issues should have a large impact, but they are something to consider. Regardless, she is the one to beat.
#10 Roxy Gap ML 7/2
She started her 4YO campaign with a rough trip down at Gulfstream Park, having to be steadied and then bumped. What is positive that it didn't knock her off for she finished third on turf. Mark Casse brings her home where she has won three of four and two of those stakes races. Casse has an excellent record on synthetic (21%) and turf/synthetic angle (24%). Her workouts have been solid and she will press the pace which put's her in good position with the speed here today. Lastly, Husbands is back in the irons and that is a big positive.
#2 Rock the Moon ML 12/1
This 4YO is another Mark Casse entry and I really like her chances in this race. We know she likes the Woodbine synthetic winning four of seven, has flashed plus 90 Beyer's and can sprint. Her workouts have been great and Casse puts his gunner Moreno (21%) on board. No doubt she is moving up in class for this will be her first stakes/graded event but I suspect we are going to see a big improvement. She'll gallop in the second flight and if the speed crumbles she will be there.
Dark Horse:
#1 Sweet Cassiopeia ML 6/1
This filly will be making her 4YO debut and she is the early foot in this event. She won her last three here at Woodbine sprinting and increased her Beyer's each time. Her workouts have been outstanding, we should see a big improvement as she has matured and McAleney stays aboard. She moved through her conditions after winning her maiden last year, and now takes a big step in her debut. If she builds off those last three races this season she could go wire to wire today.
Bombs Away:
#7 Moonlit Beauty ML 20/1
She has been more successful running on turf in her career at Woodbine, but she has posted three wins on synthetic. Why I gravitate to her is that she posted some sprint speed back when she was a 4YO, granted it was turf but I just have a feeling about her today. Her workouts have been good on synthetic, her connections put Da Silva back in the saddle and cutting her back a bit might help. The other item is that she has won off a layoff in the Belle Geste ($100K) going seven furlongs. Maybe an overreach here but I like her the best of the rest.
Selections: 4 - 10 - 2
Remember I blog at my site Monday through Friday (and a Saturday Night Special) at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: The Sixty Sails at Hawthorne Today
Today on a beautiful crisp spring day I thought it would be nice to cover a race in my hometown of Chicago. At Hawthorne, is the 34th running of the Sixty Sails Handicap (G3), purse of $200,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. There is a field of nine entered (no scratches as of this writing) going a mile and an eighth. It has drawn ladies from all over the Midwest and East Coast, making it a strong field. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Contenders:
#7 Arena Elvira ML 4/1
This 5YO mare had a stellar 4YO season winning six of eight, including a G2 and G3 event both at this distance. She won her opener as a 5YO at Tampa in a $50K stakes race setting her up for this one today. Her speed figures are nice and consistent, she has won at this distance four of five times and Lezcano comes into ride her where he has brought her home four of her eight wins. Mott has been working her consistently since Tampa, her racing style (presser) will work well in this race for there is some speed. I see no reason for her not to win her sixth in a row.
#4 Juanita ML 7/2
She is the morning line favorite shipping in from the Fair Grounds. Her 3YO campaign was a success winning the G2 Indiana Oaks then ran into the #7 in the Falls City as Churchill Downs coming in fifth. As a 4YO she has had three races in stakes company and while her speed figures improved she didn't find the winners circle. Michael Maker has been working her well and he does well with short layoff opportunities. She has the early speed but not the only one in this race and still not convinced she can carry it a mile and an eighth.
#5 Love and Pride ML 5/1
This 4YO filly has won at this distance wire to wire as a 3YO at Saratoga. She comes in off a good G2 effort in the Top Flight against It's Tricky, finishing second. Her hitting the board nine out of ten times speaks to her consistency and her workouts have been steady off that G2 finish. Pletcher has an outstanding record in these situations and can't be ignored. The only issue I have is she has a three race pattern and this would be the first one of a new run. Getting Geroux today helps the cause and that short break could be the perfect set up.
Dark Horse:
#3 Beloveda ML 9/2
Her first three races as a 4YO down a GP have been impressive. Winning two of three and posting improved Beyer's (83-94-96) that would indicate she is in great form. That last effort in the Rampart (G3) at this distance was an eye opener, most would consider her a miler. So today will be an excellent opportunity to see how good she really is. She has a pressing style that puts her within striking distance of the speed and popped a bullet over at Calder before shipping in. Marty Wolfson see's something special in her to ship up here for this one.
Bombs Away:
#6 One Last Dance ML 12/1
Michael Reavis takes over this 4YO filly who has won three of seven lifetime. She won her first race as a maiden under Reavis and now is back again. He immediately drops her in a G3 event when she has only won at the Optional Claiming level. He may be asking a lot her in this one, but you can't hide from his record with these type of horses and he puts his gunner, Thornton on board. She has raced once at this distance and finished fourth to C C's Pal. What makes her interesting is she stalks the pace and if the speed and pressers get tangled up she would be the one to pass them. This is definitely a trainer/jockey/track switch angle.
Selections:
7 - 4 - 5
I also blog Monday through Friday at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
The HANA Harness Boys Get It Rolling
Our crew at HANA harness sure is passionate about the sport. Not only have they begun a handicapping contest for members and fans to follow, they've started to talk some handicapping.
Top handicappers like Scott Alberg and Bob Pandolfo talk overrated and underrated harness angles in the latest HANA Harness Blog instalment.
We'd like to thank the standardbred community for running the press releases and embracing horseplayers.
You can follow along with everything harness related on the HANA Harness Blog. Stop by and say hi. If you know anyone who wants to sign up for HANA, it's easy. Just click the link to the right hand side of the page. You'll be asked if you're a harness or thoroughbred player. It's free!
Top handicappers like Scott Alberg and Bob Pandolfo talk overrated and underrated harness angles in the latest HANA Harness Blog instalment.
We'd like to thank the standardbred community for running the press releases and embracing horseplayers.
You can follow along with everything harness related on the HANA Harness Blog. Stop by and say hi. If you know anyone who wants to sign up for HANA, it's easy. Just click the link to the right hand side of the page. You'll be asked if you're a harness or thoroughbred player. It's free!
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Menlo Castle in the Woodstock @Woodbine
What can we say about Caixa Eletronica, our darkhorse selection for the Charles Town Classic. It wasa great race for him and Pletcher prepped him perfectly for it. I tip my hat to Duke of Mischief, I didn't think he would hold his own against this field and proved me wrong! Today we head over to Woodbine and will look at the 114th running of the Woodstock for 3YO going 6 panels for $150,000 purse. This will be interesting race for seven of the nine entries are making their 3YO debut, so that means big improvements and a price horse could surprise us.
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Contenders:
#4 Menlo Castle ML 5/2
He had an active 2YO campaign racing seven times and winning two, one of them a $201K Simcoe here at Woodbine. They stretched him out in his last two, where his speed fig's improved but just missed on both occasions. Today, he cuts back to six furlongs which will help his running style of racing near the front if not on it. His workouts have been strong, with three consecutive bullets. Biamonte has an excellent record in stakes races winning 26% and 23% on synthetic. The connections add the hot Luis Contreras which only makes him tougher.
#2 Hogy ML 3/1
He will probably go off as the favorite after that win in the Hansel($50K) at Turfway Park. It was an impressive 3YO debut winning by six and half lengths and posting a 92 Beyer. Hard to find anything wrong with him, winning four of five, his only bad race was a G3 event at Arlington, and we know he likes the synthetic winning three of four. Berndt does well with horses coming off a win (32%) and brings Riggs with him for this one. The only challenge I see for him is if Menlo Castle and Town Prize take off, he might not have enough to catch them if they too improve in their first 3YO outing.
#7 Town Prize ML 7/2
Won his first outing here at Woodbine and finished his 2YO with a two out of four record. He showed a big improvement in his last at Gulfstream Park where ran some hot splits and gave way at the end. His Beyer popped to an 85 and expect him to improve off of that today. His workouts have been sharp, not worried about his layoff since he won here at first asking and DaSilva is back in the irons. If that last race was any indication of his potential, then look out for he likes to go out fast and he could run away from all of them.
Dark Horses:
#8 Making Amends ML 6/1
He opened his 2YO season winning the $150K Clarendon here at Woodbine, followed up by a nice third in another $150K stakes race. After that his connections tried him routes without much success and then finished off the season with a third in a sprint allowance were he showed improvement. Casse put him in a sprint race at Ocala and he promptly came to life and looks ready to return home and make his mark. The big issue for him today, is that there is a bit more pace in this race, and being a late charger he will need it to to fall apart. We know Casse is tough in these situations and has his gunner, Husbands riding (28% winning record together).
#3 Oro Vero ML 8/1
Making only his third start but you have to be impressed by his 2YO results. Won at second asking with improving speed and likes to get out on the front end. His workouts have been razor sharp, Campbell stays in the irons and Attard hits for 27% win he shows up in stakes races. Might be asking a lot of him first out as a 3YO, but we don't know his ceiling but his breeding says he could bust this one wide open. I'll make him my dangerous play in this one.
Bombs Away:
#9 Ocala Son ML 15/1
Won first out in a maiden claiming at Woodbine, showed a respectable effort coming in third in the Swynford Stakes ($152K). He finished his 2YO season with two Allowance races, a second and a tiring fourth. What I notice his two best finishes and best speed fig's came at six furlongs. Squires takes the blinkers off today which is a nice angle, and we know the connections do well with layoffs. Considering he won at first asking I see no issue with the five month layoff. We know there can be a big improvement from 2YO to 3YO, look at Hogy going from a 66 to 92 and Making Amends (70 to 78). He will challenge the pace and will be interesting to see how much improvement we get today.
Selections:
4 - 2 - 7
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Tackleberry in the Charles Town Classic
It's not often we get a big race out of Charles Town. So today with a $1,000,000 on the line we will take a look at the 12th Race, the 4th running of the Charles Town Classic (G2). There is a field of 13 as of this writing and they will be going a mile and an eighth over the dirt course. What makes this race interesting is that all are shipping in, in fact, I think only three of them have ever raced at Charles Town and none more than once. So we can toss out the horse for course angle, and with this big of a field we have to find the one's that can get out in front to avoid trouble. I will make a note here that #7 Duke of Mischief ML 10/1, returns to defend his crown, winning this race last year over a sloppy track. He won't be in my mix but wanted to reference his being in here. So here we go ...
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Contenders:
#2 Tackleberry ML 3/1
Had an outstanding 4YO campaign winning three of six including two G2 events at Gulfstream Park. Finished fourth in the Classic last year and then with a weak performance in the Metropolitan, reflects a diminishing form cycle. He started the 2012 season in a G2 event with a place finish and a 98 Beyer. Since then he has had three nice workouts including a bullet on April 7th. All indications are that he is back in form and ready to start another roll of victories. It also looks like the change to Maragh helped and today he gets a weight break, so that can't hurt. He likes to get out in front early, and could easily go wire to wire against this group.
#10 Uh Oh Bango ML 4/1
Shipping in from Santa Anita were he won the San Pasquale (G2) in January. Since then has has respectable results in the San Antonio and Santa Anita Handicap (place and show). He has beaten some of these in the past and appears to handle change of surfaces well. His Beyer's show that he is consistent but does struggle at this distance,this will be his fourth try at a mile and an eighth. His best racing has comes when he goes forward and believe today he will. The interesting factor is that Kory Owens puts Gryder back on, he has been the one jockey that does get him out to the front.
#4 Pants On Fire ML 6/1
After a nice win to start his 4YO campaign, he got tangled up in the New Orleans Handicap. We know he can win at this distance taking the Louisiana Derby, and has the tactical style to race with the front runners. The key here for me is that Kelly Breen is bringing him back so fast, only on 13 days rest. His connections must feel he came out of that last race in excellent condition, and Rosie Napravinik stays in the irons. He will need a big bounce today.
Dark Horse:
#6 Caixa Eletronica ML 8/1
He has tried this distance once, winning a handicap race back in August of last year. He started off this season with two good performances at Aqueduct sprinting before hitting a dud at Laurel in late February. Not sure if Pletcher had been prepping him for this race, but he puts him for a reason. We know Pletcher does well with the sprint to route angle and today brings in Castellano to ride. I'm not worried about his form, I will toss out the Laurel effort and see him bounce off of that. If he can stay away from trouble he will be there at the end.
Bombs Away:
#9 Redding Colliery ML 10/1
This 6YO had an outstanding 4YO season capped off by winning the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2). The in 2011 had only one race that showed nothing, now this season he has had two races at Aqueduct, winning a minor stakes race off the bench. We know this horse has the speed, finished third in this race two years ago and has won at this distance before. The angle here is that Kiaran McLaughlin hits 34% on 2nd off a layoff and that last outing was a prep for this one. Might be asking a lot of him, but if he finds any of the past in his heart he will beat this crowd.
Selections:
2 - 10 - 4
Thursday, April 12, 2012
"Little" Balmoral Shows Them How It's Done
Press Release: Balmoral Park handle up over $10,000,000 in 2012
Chicago, Illinois April 12, 2012 By Michael Antoniades, Balmoral Park Racing Analyst
Balmoral Park reported strong first quarter growth in 2012 showing an increase of 35 percent in handle versus the first quarter of 2011. Total Q1 handle of $41,926,837 for 38 programs in 2012 was an increase of $10,879,738 compared to the 2011 Q1 handle of $31,047,099 on 37 programs.
The nightly average at Balmoral rose to $1,103,337, an increase of $264,227 per night versus Q1 of 2011. Going back to the successful model of the 70’s and 80’s ,two of the three weekly cards went with only ten races resulting in a total of 423 races on 38 nights. The theory of less races to handicap and more free time for the players paid handsome dividends as the average handle per race in 2012 Q1 rose to $99,117, up $22,835 per race from Q1 of 2011.
Another key component was the low percentage of winning favorites. Balmoral offered some of the most competitive racing in North America . The evidence to this statement is overwhelming considering this fact. The Balmoral Park average of 33 per cent winning favorites is not only the lowest in harness racing, it equals thoroughbred racetracks Oaklawn Park and Parx for the lowest in all of racing for the first quarter of 2012.
The fact that the three major thoroughbred venues this winter all sported higher percentages of winning favorites is a big reason why Balmoral Park has been able to get thoroughbred players interested in harness racing. Through March 31, the Big 3 averages were Gulfstream and Santa Anita at 35 per cent and Aqueduct at 40 per cent.
Competitive racing resulted in some of the biggest payouts in racing. A Pick 5 record fifty cent payout was established on February 1 when one winner took home $32,400.00. The record payout was topped three weeks later on February 22, when three lucky Pick 5 winners each received $44,675.10 on their 50 cent winning ticket. The largest Pick 4 payout was eleven days earlier when a one dollar winning ticket took home $22.958.80. At Balmoral a player could do some damage with a dime as well. The Original 10 cent High 5 paid $13,599.00 on January 14 and $10,609.50 on April 4.
Low takeout, guaranteed pools and low minimums allowed players to last longer and gave them a better chance to win big. A three horse fifty cent trifecta box for $3.00 or a four horse dime super box for $2.40 was a sure way to get newcomers to the winners circle more often and make the pools much larger which made the gambling product more attractive to bigger players.
The Pick 4 wager at Balmoral continues to be an amazing story. In the words of one of our biggest players, “This should be taught at every business school in the country to show students what is possible”. Thanks to the USTA Strategic Wagering Initiative, Track Master for the deluxe free program pages combined with a low takeout of 15%, the Balmoral Pick 4 has become one of the most popular bets in North America. In 2009, the Pick 4 averaged $8,827 per night with a 25% takeout. 27 months later in the first quarter of 2012 the average pool rose to $32,143 with guaranteed pools and free program pages every night along with a 40% reduction in takeout. $524,114 was wagered on thirteen March Pick Fours for a record monthly average of $40,316.
ANATOMY OF A BET
BALMORAL PARK PICK 4 HISTORY 2009 TO THE PRESENT
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | ||||
| 25% Takeout | 15% Takeout | 15% Takeout | 15% Takeout | ||||
| JAN | $8,524 | $7,698 | $15,163 | $28,675 | |||
| FEB | 8,587 | 10,277 | 17,490 | 27,046 | |||
| MAR | 9,739 | 10,923 | 15,629 | 40,316 | |||
| APR | 7,750 | 11,021 | 26,584 | ||||
| MAY | 7,907 | 14,897 | 24,773 | ||||
| JUN | 9,425 | 14,109 | 24,708 | ||||
| JUL | 7,689 | 16,357 | 26,191 | ||||
| AUG | 8,160 | 12,570 | 23,658 | ||||
| SEP | 11,672 | 22,467 | 30,411 | ||||
| OCT | 7,432 | 15,670 | 28,016 | ||||
| NOV | 9,641 | 15,703 | 25,804 | ||||
| DEC | 10,349 | 12,584 | |||||
| 2009 | 25% takeout | ||||||
| 2010 | 15% takeout | ||||||
| 2011 thru March 15% takeout | |||||||
| 2011 April thru 6-26 15% takeout and guarantees on Saturday and Sunday | |||||||
| 2011 after 6-29 | 15% takeout and guarantees nightly. Guarantees raised $ 5,000 | ||||||
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Weekend Handicapping: Wide open field in Wait A While @Gulfstream
Yesterday in the Bayshore we had two or three live horses that looked solid to win that feature, and Trinniberg proved me wrong on my "bounce" concerns and nailed a wire to wire win. I look forward to seeing him race again and hopefully he moves up the Graded ladder. Today, we go down I95 to Gulfstream for the 10th race, Wait A While stakes for a purse of $70,000. It's a turf affair for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
As of this writing, there is a field of 10, but the #2 Speak Easy Gal ran yesterday at Tampa Bay, so she should be scratched. This lineup is real tough, I could argue a case for all of them, it's that wide open. The good news with these kind of races is that we get a good price. So let's get started ...
Contenders:
#5 Race to Urga ML 5/1
This lightly raced 4YO filly has done an outstanding job for Clement. Is two for two this season, four of five at this distance and two of three here at Gulfstream Park. Her Beyer's have improved steadily (80-82-84-89) and she get's Lezcano back on board (19% wins on turf). She likes to get out front and there are others here that may follow, it'll be interesting to see if she gets her way with this group.
#9 Anne's Beauty ML 6/1
She'll be making her 4YO debut after two fine seasons at Woodbine. Her lone turf win came in the G3 Ontario Collen going a mile with a Beyer of 87. Most will look at her as a sprinter on synthetic, but I see her not having a problem with fast lawn here at Gulfstream. Paul Attard has been working her nice an steady, and he has a canny ability to surprise in stake races. She also gets one of the steadiest jockey's in Rocco (he has been on nice streak of late).
#10 Entrustment ML 4/1
On the surface, this looks like on of those fillies where the connections may have over extended her capabilities as a 3YO. Got off to a nice start at Santa Rosa and Golden Gate and then threw her into serious Graded races at Hollywood and Del Mar. She held her own in some of those races and flashed impressive Beyer's, but her last effort showed she had enough of it. Now Marty Wolfson takes over and she got her first taste of Gulfstream. Not great but not bad. Unless her confidence is shattered I look for her to show a big improvement today, and she has the tools to win it.
Dark Horses:
#7 Ima Soul Miss ML 8/1
Shipping in from Tampa where she won her first turf event for Roger Attfield. She is a lightly raced 6YO, which is unusual in itself. We know she can win, three of six lifetime, distance is no issue and her Beyer's are consistent. I like that she has won on her second after a layoff before, she has had three good works since her last outing, and Elvis is in the irons. I would call her our dangerous one in this race, we really don't know her ceiling and she could explode off the pace.
#8 Distorted Legacy ML 5/2
This mare is an enigma. Zero for eight on grass, zero for four at this distance and zero for four at Gulfstream. So why do I have her here? Her last two races(different tracks) as a 3YO were at G1 level and she posted two top Beyer's of 96 and 97 on turf. The key for her today, is where does Maragh place her. If he rates in the second flight she could win it, but if he lays off and tries to make the late rush, she'll be too late.
Bombs Away:
#1 Trip for A.J. ML 12/1
This 5YO mare is one of those tough knocking turf winners. Has had her way over at Calder, and scored a big win here at GP winning the Sunshine Million ($300K). After a solid 4YO campaign, she is off to a slow start, but her last out she did show some improvement in her splits. She has the speed to win it and if Fuller keeps her close then her chances really improve.
Selections:
5 - 9 - 10
Remember I blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ Monday through Saturday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)