Friday, March 6, 2009

Handicapping Weekend - The Derby

Jay let us in on the Handicappers Pyramid last week, but now it is Derby time. His take, along with updates to come.

Cream Rises to the Top

by JK

The class of this year's 3yo crop is beginning to make itself known.
So, who can get 10 furlongs on the dirt?

I am primarily looking at two things from the top contenders:
Closing Times, and Times from Gate to Wire.
Gate to Wire times are hand timed from the gate, and generally longer than the official times. Closing times measure how long it took the horse to run the last few furlongs of the race.

For Reference, 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown is included.

1. Friesan Fire - Quietly a strong contender.
2. Dunkirk - Needs win in Florida Derby.
3. Desert Party - Best of Dubai bunch.
4. Old Fashioned - His Remsen is still best Derby prep on paper.
5. Pioneerof The Nile - Best in the West , synth to dirt?
6. Quality Road - Best 3yo miler / Distance a question

Somebody's Watching You - Hello Broadway, Take The Points, Square Eddie, Affirmatif...
Never say Never – The Pamplemousse has absolutely no shot!


Anonymous said...

Love The Pamplemousse! You really think he has no shot?

Enjoyed the List , what a great 3yo Crop this year

Amateurcapper said...

THE PAMPLEMOUSSE looks like another BROTHER DEREK. He's overachieved and he's got a funny way of going with his left front which may be a problem. We'll see what class he and PIONEEROF THE NILE are when they meet in April/May.

Pull the Pocket said...

Why don't you like the Grapefruit horse Jay?

Anonymous said...

The Pamplemousse is a cool horse, but he is bred to be about a 7Furlong Turf Horse. With his turf aptitude and quality, he is well suited to the "Pro-Ride" synthetic surface which for now is hiding his low stamina through these California derby preps. 10 furlongs on dirt would be a rude awakening.