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Sunday, January 1, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: One Last Dance in the Ladies at Aqueduct

Before we look at today’s race, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year!  We finished the year with our soft “Bombs Away” Apriority winning the Mr. Prospector and paid $7.20.  I’m also pleased how well Zero Rate Policy ran, almost held on to win it.  We will start the New Year off by heading up to Aqueduct and look at one of the oldest handicap races around.  It’s the 141st running of the Ladies Handicap for 3YO fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth over the always tough inner track for a purse of $75,000.  We have only six entered so I will review the contenders and the one Bombs Away.  

Contenders:

#3  One Last Dance ML 6/1

There is no doubt the #1 CC’s Pal should be in this spot, but with a morning line of 8/5 and knowing she will played heavily, I had to go to the upset factor.   This lightly raced 4YO looks poised to break out and show us how good she really can be.  She won her last over the inner track in a route going away, her Beyer’s are progressing and I believe Dale Romans has found the perfect spot for her today.  She is coming right back off that win, and that spells fit and ready.

#1  CC’s Pal ML 8/5

She is tough to go against, Dutrow trained and on a nice streak since he took over.  She also won her last outing on the inner track, albeit a sprint, but there is no denying her speed and how she likes to stay to the front.  Her Beyer’s of 91-85-91 make her extremely tough for this group to overhaul, she has the speed to go wire to wire.  Dutrow had a great 2011 season, especially in the stakes area, brings Alvarado right back on her (where they have been winning 45% together).   I can’t argue against her, just don’t like the value.

#5  Katy Now ML 7/5

This race is almost looking totally chalk, I have to admit these three really stick out on the form.   This is a tough 5YO with the Pletcher/Dominquez connection.  Won at Belmont two back in the Dispute and made a decent showing in the G2 Go For Wand here at Aqueduct in November.  In that raced she got bumped at the start and came out wide and showed her toughness, by staying close and didn’t pack it in.  Her Beyer’s are right there to win this race and have to call her the dangerous one, but the price value isn’t going to be there.

Bombs Away:

#2  Karmageddon ML 10/1

She looks to be a totally a horse for courses play at Monmouth. I’m going to hang my hat on her last win, which was a route in a $60,000 handicap (it was against state breds) and she popped a 81 Beyer.  Then she ran in a $100K at Suffolk and finished a strong 3rd after a slow start, posting an improving Beyer of 85.  The winner of that race has come back to win again, so using the key race angle here.  She has been off since October and has had decent workouts over the inner track.  She could be finding herself at 5 and ready for a big race. 

Selections:

3 – 1 – 5   

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