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Sunday, January 8, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Holiday Mood for the Ocala today at GP

Captivating Lass started the weekend off on a good note.  She had an excellent race and Luzzi rode her perfectly taking the win and paying a nice $5.80 on a $2 ticket.  Today we head down to Gulfstream and take a look at a minor stakes race for state bred fillies and mares, 4YO.  It’ll be the 10th race on the card, the 6th running of the Ocala for a purse of $60,000.  Seven girls have entered for this one mile dirt affair, and there is plenty of speed in this one and that always make it difficult.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them go wire to wire today.  So let’s see if we can score a double this weekend.

Contenders:

#2  R Holiday Mood  ML 6/1

This lightly raced 4YO has won three of six, and has shown versatility by winning routes and sprints.  She has been off for awhile after a dismal race in the Jostle at Parx.  She has shown she can win coming off a layoff and hard to go against Pletcher and JohnnyV.  There are others in this race with stronger Beyer’s but going with her ability to improve.  She is one of them that can go to the front and never look back.

#7  Sweet Repent  ML 3/1

It’s hard to ignore this 6YO.  She has posted some monster Beyer’s in her day, has won over ten races and one here at GP.  Distance is no issue and came off the bench in November to finish second in a $150,000 handicap over at Calder.  Braddy is an excellent trainer and she has won twice coming off a layoff.  If she is ready, she will come off the pace and nail them. 

#4  All Due Respect ML 2/1

She will be the favorite in this race and it is deserved.  Dutrow brings her back to Gulfstream where she won the Ocala ($60K) back in March.  He had taken the 5YO over from Kathy Walsh and won at first try.  After that she got moved around and still placed well in two G2 events.  Has the speed to blow this field away and Castellano is back in the irons.   She has won coming off layoffs and has had two bullet works at GP.  Only reason I have her in the show spot is price.

Dark Horse:

#3  Delightful Mary   ML 4/1

Here is another lightly raced 4YO who shows promise but still is inconsistent.   She has won four of seven lifetime and hit the board in six.  She shows flashes of speed to be competitive with these girls and did well in the 2010 BC Juvenile, finishing 3rd.   She doesn’t have a lot of experience on dirt; most of her success has been on synthetic.  She is one of those dangerous ones.
  
Bombs Away:

#6  Tourmaline  ML 12/1

Had a nice 3YO campaign winning four of ten, and seems to do well where ever she races.  Her speed has been improving and winning at this distance will be no problem.  The big issue is class.  All of her wins have come at minor or second level tracks and has taken down some big purses.  Rhone is a sneaky trainer, has excellent stats and does well with surface switches.  He keeps Butler on board which tells me something.  If you are lukewarm on this field, then this is the play.

Selections:

2 – 7 – 4 

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