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Thursday, February 3, 2011

Strange Payout at Delta Downs?

We often see on chat boards, forums or via email, some suspicious-looking payouts. Most times these payouts can be explained by small pools or statistical noise. However, we received an email from a player yesterday about the last race at Delta Downs:

"I have bet thousands of races in my life and I have never, ever seen such a discrepancy in the prices for the odds that came in."

Checking into it, we agree this looks a little odd. A 12-1 shot won, a 27-1 shot was second, a 12-1 shot was third and a 5-2 shot was fourth. The 3-5 shot ran out, and it was a huge ten horse field.

The exacta was $446 for a deuce, which is perfectly in-line.

If we had to ask ourselves: "If we hit the tri for 50 cents and the super for a dime, and there was $29k in the tri pool and $32k in the super pool under these circumstances (big field etc), what would we expect to walk home with?" I would think we would all think we made a score.

But we would have taken $365.40 for the tri and the super came back at $311.82. After takeout it appears there were about 76 dime super tickets sold on that ridiculously tough combo.


Did anyone play this race last night and do you have any thoughts?

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

It paid $311 for a dime. The $2 payouts look pretty normal.

Anonymous said...

They mention the dime payoff... it is wayyy low. If I hit that combonation in a 32k pool I am expecting much more. If someone hit it with a $1 box, maybe...... but if (more likely) it was 76 dime tickets, it sticks out like a sore thumb.

RG

Anonymous said...

When a 5/2 shot finishes 4th, and the super pays 4.5 times what the tri paid, I don't see why this is a story.

HANA said...

Anon,

I think the emailer meant the tri is short as well.

Regardless, we have heard from a couple of players who hit this, fair and square, by pitching the chalk as an overbet looking for a score.

Using Harville to estimate odds on tris might be useful at times, but when a few sharp players smell some blood by throwing out a chalk (and some FTS's too) it can un-Harvillize things in a hurry!

HANA

Anonymous said...

Betfair can't get here quick enough. I bet Steve's horse was 5-2 on there, and the others lower.

It's difficult in this day and age (with rebated cash) where the exotics yield the most value to only look at the odds board for exotics payouts. If it was 1985 this payout would be investigated but now the odds board does not do the job.

Anonymous said...

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