We often see on chat boards, forums or via email, some suspicious-looking payouts. Most times these payouts can be explained by small pools or statistical noise. However, we received an email from a player yesterday about the last race at Delta Downs:
"I have bet thousands of races in my life and I have never, ever seen such a discrepancy in the prices for the odds that came in."
Checking into it, we agree this looks a little odd. A 12-1 shot won, a 27-1 shot was second, a 12-1 shot was third and a 5-2 shot was fourth. The 3-5 shot ran out, and it was a huge ten horse field.
The exacta was $446 for a deuce, which is perfectly in-line.
If we had to ask ourselves: "If we hit the tri for 50 cents and the super for a dime, and there was $29k in the tri pool and $32k in the super pool under these circumstances (big field etc), what would we expect to walk home with?" I would think we would all think we made a score.
But we would have taken $365.40 for the tri and the super came back at $311.82. After takeout it appears there were about 76 dime super tickets sold on that ridiculously tough combo.
Did anyone play this race last night and do you have any thoughts?