Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Mark Patterson's Mountain Tip Sheet

Four or five nights a week horseplayers who tune in to Mountaineer know Mark and Nancy. They are the staple of the simulcast show at the Mountain, offering insights and some chatter, to help horseplayers win, and hopefully entertain them at the same time. Mark has been a horseplayer for a long time, and frequently is seen in Horseplayer Magazine with a column on playing the B tracks. He is aware of HANA's Race Three Exacta pool party and has offered his 'top three for race three' here on the blog. Thanks Mark!

1) Enter the Lion..Streaky trainer hit paydirt last night with another Ded horse and that bodes well; Tired gradually taking fourth straight drop, but not before dueling the second favorite off the board; Get the feeling outfit wasn't grimly serious there; Cutback plays into that theory since both scores came sprinting; One of those was an allowance no less; Rallied strongly for each win and pace looks legitimate here; Thinking he explodes in third start of cycle; Advise betting with both fists.

2) Take Aim.. Ran better than it looked when battling along a dead-rail on Mar. 17; Early bump forced frontrunner to adapt his style next time, still managed to pull it off; 22 and change with a clean break and career Beyer came on the lead; Fear him if he fronts these.

3) Hey Reemer..Returns to scene of both scores after folding on Polytrack; Ran them down when last teamed with Feliciano some 8 months ago; Moves up sharply on dirt and gives rider tactical options; Decent barn overdue to get rolling.

Wanna play? Free PP's et al here from our friends in cyberspace. Join us at HANA and lend a hand to changing the game for the better in race three at the Mountain tonight!


Anonymous said...

As a long time viewer of the Mountaineer show, thanks Mark! I appreciate the banter on the show in spite of a tendency to gravitate towards chalk.

See you at the buycott tonite!

John Hahn said...

Call me a cynic, but Mark advising us to "bet with both fists" on the Enter The Lion smells like he's trying to get a fat price on some other horse. Enter The Lion is a sucker bet, and just about any handicapper worth his salt would likely concur.

Cangamble said...

I'm not crazy about program choices, and Enter the Lion wouldn't be a shock, but I'm going elsewhere. In a race full of erratic non winners of three, it is best to go for the bomb. That being said, I like Fleck of Gold (20-1 in the program). He is undefeated at tonight's for zero.

Chalk Eating Weasel said...

Well as long as were all prophesizing here (how else can you handicap this race?), I too believe Enter the Lion is a false morning line favorite, so watch him win by 10. He's winless in 4 trys at MNR and 0 for 2 at the distance. On the plus side, he does get a positive jockey change, has a relatively advantageous post position, is cutting back in distance and this is only his 2nd try to win at this level, so I can't dismiss him entirely. I make the 3rd choice at 4-1 and will include him in the exacta.

My top choice is Hey Reemer. Hey Reemer is cutting back a furlong after leading the first two calls last out. According to my Brisnet PP's of 115 races at this distance, 40% are won wire to wire and early speed has a big advantage Both of Hey Reemer's wins have come at MNR, and he is 7 for 11 ITM here. 3-1 is about as low as I can go for odds in a race like this

2nd choice is Take Aim moving up a condition level after beating N2L last out. Not usually my favorite angle but, at least this relatively lightly raced 4yo is not a proven loser at this level yet, seems to be in good current form and is 2 for 7 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance. I'm making him about 7-2.

My last choice is the 5 horse Legacy Hunter. The jockey/trainer connection seems to work here
with 6 of 7 ITM finishes in the last 60 days. Legacy Hunter has a win at MNR and is 2 for 7 at the distance. You gotta take 'em where you can find 'em. Trainer Gary Walsh is a 17% winner with a +ROI and 45% ITM so far this year. Make LH 6-1.

So here's what I'll do. Of the 4 horses above I will take the overlay and key him on top and beneath the other contenders. Normally, if there was no overlay, I would pass the race, but, since this is for a good cause, if there is no overlay I will take the horse offering the best price and make him the key horse.

The_Knight_Sky said...

I have enjoyed the Mountaineer product in recent years and I'm please to see this type of a blog post. On several occasions I have promoted "Monday Night Madness at Mountaineer" in various handicapping forums. Perhaps this can be a regular thing here.

Trainer Jami Poole is live shipping in from Turfway and love the rider switch back to Ricard Feliciano. It's up to him to ration the energy and not stay too close to the bullet #9 Ameliaislandmissle. The latter is the pacesetter but figures to come back in the lane.

$5 perfecta box 2,4,6,7,9 with #8 Hey Reemer.($50)
$10 perfecta 9 with 3,5 (20)
$6 perfecta 8 with 2,6,9 (18)
$4 perfecta 2,6,9 with 8 (12)

50+20+18+12 = 100

Tom Atwater said...

Hey, that was fun!

I had $2 on the winning $136 perfecta, off perfecta bets of $33, so I am happy..... this is a fun thing to do, I appreciate all that participate and set it up.

HANA said...

That is some good analysis up there fellows (and ladies perhaps). A few people scoped out the winner I see. I did not! I am with the weasel: I went with the 8 horse.

Thanks for the pool bump. $73k in the ex pool, and the other pools were all UP!

thanks again!


The_Knight_Sky said...

Well so much for the 'exploding missle' theory.
The trainkeptarollin.

Mountaineer is unique.
Not your uncle Joe's horse race track.

I'm not sure if Steve Davidowitz's class codes for minor tracks work as well as it does at other minor tracks.

Some very challenging puzzles up at The Mountain.

kevin morris said...

Don't know how many people were watching the feed from Mountaineer, so I wanted to let everyone know Mark gave recognition to HANA at least three times, and the track announcer also mentioned the race was the HANA feature race of the week. I'm ashamed to say the Mountain is my home track but I didn't have Ameiiaislandmissle.

Vegas pool party said...

Three Exacta pool party is good to me. what kind of party is that? what's the purpose of this party?

Mike, Lynn & Tom said...

We were at the mountain last Sunday and got a chance to meet mark and Nancy. We always watch your simulcast show from Parx Casino. We enjoyed chatting with you guys and seeing your studio. Thanks again, it was our pleasure.
Keep up with those great picks!!
Mike, Lynn & Tom from Philly.