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Sunday, November 6, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Ravi's Song in The Cardinal today

There is only one word to describe the Breeders Cup yesterday: WOW!  I’m not a historian of the Breeders Cup but when was the last time there were that many double digit payoffs?  Court Vision winning the TVG Breeders Cup Mile(T) and paying $131.40 and then Drosselmeyer taking down the Classic with a sweet return of $31.60.  Speaking of Drosselmeyer, while I didn’t have him in my mix yesterday, I had one of those funny handicapping sensations about him.  Have any of you while handicapping, ignore a horse that your eyes keep returning to? Instead of figuring out how he can win you think of no way he can win.  I did that with Drosselmeyer yesterday.  Several times as I was fine tuning the top 6, my eyes wander over to him, I kept say now way.  Then watching TVG and hearing Paul Lo Duca say “Drosselmeyer won his maiden here at CD, and started on the “horses for courses”,  I knew Drosselmeyer was going to win.  One hint on Lo Duca, when he spots a “horse for a course” pay attention, he had Teaks North in the United Nations based on that angle.
   
So today we suffer from a Breeders Cup hangover but there is an interesting race on the card at Churchill this fine Sunday.  Today’s Weekend Handicapping will be the 38th running of The Cardinal Handicap Grade 3 for fillies and mares, going 1 1/8 miles over the turf course.  Purse is $100,000 with a field of 7.

Contenders:

#3  Ravi’s Song ML 3/1

His last two races have been over the turf in G3 events, posting back to back seconds.  In each race his Beyer’s paired nicely (94 – 93).  His first turf effort was here at Churchill losing by a nose.  He is a deep stretch runner and don’t see why he can’t return to winning form with this group.

#5 Tapitsfly ML 3/1

Toss out the dirt effort in the Spinster (G1) and you a real solid filly here.  Last two turf efforts at the Spa were good, one being a G2, improving Beyer’s and Albarado looks like the right jockey for her.  Can’t dismiss Romans strong stats here, the only question did the Spinster mess her form up.

#6 Deluxe ML 5/2

She will be making her 3rd start of her 4YO campaign and fully expect Bill Mott will have her ready to go.  Not sure why they took that big leap from  $80K stakes race (finishing 2nd) to the Flower Bowl (G1), where she got clobbered.  She has a great pedigree, decent efforts over in France and with Leparoux in the saddle, she might get squared away and surprise us.

I’m skipping the Dark Horses today, since I consider the rest of the field to just that, dark horses.

Bombs Away:

#4 Kiss Mine ML 10/1

This 5YO is a total “horses for courses” angle.  Has raced on the turf 8 times here at CD and has won two, finishing in the money four other times.  She has flashed 90 Beyer’s three times in her career and get’s Prado today.  With a weight break and back on a course she likes, she could find her way home in this crowd.

Selections:

3 – 5 – 6

I’ll be posting the tonight’s $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections at Balmoral Park at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

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