Weekend Handicapping: Another Baffert Interlude in the Derby today

Today we head back to the west coast and have a race where the turf meets the surf.  I’m going to look at the Del Mar Derby (G2) for 3YO’s on turf going a mile and an eighth.   It’s a field of 10 fighting for a purse of $250,000, all but one are west coast turf horses, with Banned being the outsider.  There is virtually no front end speed in this race, and while I don’t necessarily subscribe to the “pace makes the race” in turf races, the lack of it here makes this race wide open for an upset or a surprise.  Here we go …

Contenders:

#1  Midnight Interlude ML 7/2:  Baffert trained winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) comes right back from his even effort in the LaJolla.  He faces several from that warm up again today, but I look at that last race as a tune up.  He has had two nice works since 8/13 and Baffert hits 24% on 2^nd off races.  I know many think Bejarano is the plague on turf but with an inside ride, saving ground in a pace less race and getting some distance added he should come through and win. 

#7 Banned ML 5/2: Here is another tough horse.  Back to back wins at Churchill Downs and seems to race well anywhere.  This will be his first visit to Del Mar and while many don’t take this turf course too seriously it will be interesting to see how he does.  He is cutting back in distance and has the ability to go out a bit, so might work. His Beyer’s show him to be red hot, and Proctor doesn’t goof around when enters a horse in Graded races.  I’m writing as if he is the winner and will be the favorite, but with nothing to chase he might not kick into gear.

#5 Cloud Man ML 6/1:  This colt is dangerous and believe he is ready to break through.  Granted it took him several efforts to move through his allowance condition but improving Beyer’s, a string of pearls on his workouts and Sherriffs has excellent ROI in these situations.  Talamo stays with him, and might struggle with the distance but like his chances here.

Dark Horses:

#6  Dreamy Kid ML 8/1:  Had him as my selection at the West Virginia Derby and had a horrible effort.  This will be his first try on grass, his breeding suggests that he will be fine and has won at this distance.  He has the dangerous Rosario on board and while Drysdale isn’t having a great meet, you have to respect him here.  I look for him to bounce back and show us that same game race he had in the Swaps(G2) at Hollywood Park.  He will sit in the middle and can get up and win.

#9 Burns ML 9/2:  He won his last out in the LaJolla(G2) and some would have him the favorite here.  PVal is on board and right there makes Burns a player.  The knock on him is the distance; his only two tries at this distance were on dirt and didn’t fare well.  His last three races while at shorter distances don’t show him holding on and not stretching out.  One last thing, a minor point but his Beyer’s while very good are range bound in the high 80’s and don’t see any break outs, it will take a big effort today.

“Bomb’s Away”:

#4 Extensive ML 12/1:    Here is an interesting play.  Proctor runs him in the Oceanside and shows a decent effort coming in 3^rd behind Burns and brings him back in an Optional Claimer where he wins and lo and behold gets claimed! Now his connections place right back into a G2 race.  His Beyer’s are improving and think the distance will be no problem; and gets a very dangerous Martin Garcia.  With no pace and the ability to close smartly he becomes a fun pick on the “recent claim” angle, and who would think to play it in a Graded race.

Selections:

1 – 7 – 5 

A near miss last night at Balmoral in the Pick 4. Will be posting later today at  http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/  the selections for tonight’s $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park.  Have a great holiday and may you cash all your tickets today!

Weekend Handicapping: Pacific Classic Rematch

Yesterday we saw two interesting races.  The comeback of Uncle Mo in the Bishop and the disappearing act of Coil, Ruler on Ice and Shackleford in the Travers.  There is no doubt that Uncle Mo is an outstanding colt after that performance yesterday.  He ran a strong race and just got caught by Caleb’s Posse.  We should expect a big fall campaign from Uncle Mo.  The Travers for me was a disappointment, not because Coil lost but it seemed the whole race was flat.  I admit that I’m not convinced Stay Thirsty is “all that”.  I still think of him as a “horse for courses” type only winning at Saratoga.  What did surprise me was how the top three were totally no factors in that race.   Since Hurricane Irene has shut down the east coast racing for the day, all eyes fall on Del Mar.

So today I will attempt to make sense of the $1,000,000 Del Mar Pacific Classic (G1), 3YO+ going a mile and quarter over the synthetic track.  We have the rematch of Twirling Candy and Game On Dude, a top turf horse in Acclamation trying the synthetic again, some shippers and horses still trying to find their level.  Let’s take a look ….

Contenders:

#9 Game On Dude ML 3/1 & #10 Twirling Candy ML 5/2:  I’m putting them together for it’s a tossup.  They’re G1 winners, excellent connections, top level Beyer’s, strong consistent workouts.  They’re both fast and like to be at or near the front and wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of the Hollywood Gold Cup.  In trying to find something, the only thing, and this is a stretch, is that Chantal Sutherland due to her suspensions, might be a bit out of the groove.  Other than that, take the one you like and play it.  Or pass and find the upset horse.

#5 Acclamation ML 5/1:  This is an interesting situation.  Here you have the premier turf horse going back to synthetic which he hasn’t done well on and switches to PVal (leaving Talamo in the Jockey room).  You have to consider him for he knows how to win, has done okay on the Del Mar surface back in the day.  He likes to lead, but this isn’t turf and will be interesting to see where Valenzuela rates him. Bottom line you can’t ignore a back to back G1 winner, including this distance regardless of track surface.  If the ML holds anywhere near 5/1 would take him as the value play.

Dark Horses:

#2  Jeranimo ML 12/1:  Has won at the G2 level last year and a second in the Read(G1).  He is another turf specialist with a decent synthetic history(3 of 13 and 8 ITM) .  Just not sure which horse will show up.  Consistent Beyer’s and has been working out fine over the surface.  Is a presser and could be there if the pace disintegrates.  In the exotics for sure.

#6 Setsuko ML 8/1:  This colt has left our hearts broken at the 8^th pole how many times?  He has been nibbling at the winners circle for sometime at all levels.  He is closer and if all the speed in this race falls apart then it should be his day.   Would like to see him have his break through race, can it be today or do watch him near miss again?

“Bombs Away”

#1 Don Cavallo ML 8/1:  Has won at the G3 level last out, Beyer’s increasing each race, a winner on synthetic at Woodbine.  Attfield is one of the craftiest trainers around and brings Woodbines top jock, Contreras with him for this race.  He can do the distance and can lead or rate off the pace.  I would think he would let Twirling Candy and Game On Dude fight it out and take them out down the stretch.  Like a lot of these types he is facing some tough horses today and will need a top effort, and he seems to be finding his form right now.  A dangerous one.

Right now I see this race being between Twirling Candy and Game On Dude but then of late who knows, it has been a strange summer.   It will be interesting to see how Acclamation handles the synthetic, can Setsuko finally win at this level or does Don Cavallo surprise us all?

Selections:

9 - 10 - 5

I’ll be posting the selections for Balmoral Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 this evening.  Last night the Pick 4 paid over $5500 and I got clobbered for the first time no finishers ugghh!.   http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Grass Burners in Del Mar Oaks Saturday

In a previous blog I stated I wasn’t going to handicap the Alabama because I was a big It’s Tricky fan and it would be slanted selection.  I mentioned that I was going to handicap the Del Mar Oaks for Saturday and then put it out of mind.  At the time, I was busy handicapping Monmouth for another group and working the Pick 4 at Balmoral.  I will admit I had no idea who was even in the Del Mar Oaks until I opened my Bris PP’s.  As I scanned the line up all I could do was mutter, WOW, and thought can I change my mind and do the Alabama? 

    

Not being one to dodge a challenge, I dug in and took a long look at the 8^th Race, Del Mar Oaks (G1), going  1 1/8^th  over the turf, for 3YO fillies and a purse of $250,000.  It’s a field of 10 with 2 also eligible.  Before I go through the contenders and the like, I would say if you are an angle player pick one.  There is cutting back in distance, several jockey changes, beaten favorite, bounce pattern and long layoff.   Oh, almost forgot the last angle, throw a dart at the entries.

After going through it over and over and changing my mind a dozen times, I settled on 7 horses. I normally rank 3 as contenders, 3 as dark horses and 1 “Bombs Away”.  For the Del Mar Oaks, it will be a bit different. I will rank 7 horses, the first 3 are my favorites and the next 4 are winners but for various reasons think they are vulnerable.  In truth, I’m splitting hairs for this line up is outstanding.  One last thing, what makes this race so neat, is no matter what you go with you’ll  get a good price! Even the ML favorite, Summer Soiree is at 5/2 and not even sure she will go off as the favorite, but will take 5/2 with this group any day.

Here we go:

1.       #9 Nereid  ML 5-1:   Won the G1 American Oaks in a dead heat with Cambina and  4 others in this race right on her heels.  She went to the front in the American and held it until the wire, with her cutting back a 1/8th,  I see no reason she can’t do it again. Sherriffs wins 42% with winners of last race and Talamo is hot on turf.  Three good 5f workouts and her Beyer’s have improved each race and no signs of a bounce.  She could wire this field.

2.       #10 Up In Time ML 8-1:  I liked this filly in the San Clemente (G2) but thought she might be one more race away.  She beat the undefeated Sarah’s Secret and rated nicely off the pace and took control and won by 1 ¼ , her runout was good and with the extra distance today she could run right by all the speed in this race if they melt down. Strong workouts and Bejarano rides her again for Simon Callaghan.

3.       #5 Sarah’s Secret ML 12-1:  Most will be surprised with her sitting in the third selection.  She is also my “Bombers Away” pick.  The question is why here?  This is more of an angle play.  She was the beaten favorite in the San Clemente(G2), she raced close and never fired.  Not sure why, there didn’t seem to be an excuse.     Here is the play; Kathy Walsh has an excellent record with graded stakes, and beaten favorites.  She made a big switch in jockeys, taking Flores off and puts Rosario up.  Granted her Beyer’s don’t match up with the rest, but just have a feeling she will bounce back. She will be near the front,  but she needs rate off Nereid not run with her.

4.       #7 Cambina ML 3-1:  She is a strong closer and caught Nereid at the wire in the American Oaks.  In watching the tape, she actually got jammed up in the lane and then rallied.  It makes you think she could have taken it clearly.  I put her 4^th, due to the large group of speed and I don’t see them all crumbling.  Also this is a large field and closers can get into trouble clearing a bevy of horses or has to go wide.  Interesting thing is, Bonde puts Garrett Gomez back on, he has 3 straight wins back at Santa Anita with her.  Check the turf bias.

5.      #4  Bizzy Caroline ML 8-1:  In the American Oaks she rode right on Nereid’s hip and did nothing.  Most labeled it a no excuse effort and not sure what happened but she was there at the end.  The 5^th place finish does not reflect that she was only ¾ of length behind the dead heat finishers.  McPeek doesn’t have a great win % this season on graded stakes but he has Cruz back on from her Churchill Downs days, where she won the Regret(G3).   With her speed and cut back in distance she could surprise.

6.     #3  Summer Soiree ML 5-2:  There is no doubt this filly can win. She has 4 wins and the closest one was her maiden when she won by 6 ¼ lengths.  She has been off for 50+ days but has won coming off longer layoffs.  Excellent turf trainer in Graham Motion. So why not here?  Her speed figures are not consistent, a touch of a bouncer and she is meeting a tougher group. Not convinced.

7.    #2   Star Billing ML 5-1:  This is her 5^th start and she seems to be always on the board regardless if it’s G1, G2 or G3.  She was right there in the American Oaks placing 3^rd off by a nose.  The concern is her speed figures tend to bounce up and down so not sure the consistency is there yet.  She loses Rosario for Espinosa, who does well on turf in his own right, but Rosario going to the Kathy Walsh filly says something.  I do like this filly and one of those “gut” feelings that this could be her breakthrough race.

There is tons of speed in this race (4 Beyers at 100, 1 at 101), strong closers and 6 of them are within 6 points on the Bris Net Prime Power rankings.  It should be an exciting race and wouldn’t be surprised if we see another blanket finish like the American Oaks.  Photo finish hold all tickets! 

Good luck and will be handicapping the Sky Classic from Woodbine for Sunday.  You can read my blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Mabee too much speed @ DelMar today

At my blog site http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ yesterday, I shared some insights on handicapping European horses from Night School.  Little did I realize that the Arlington turf races would become a mini laboratory.  In the morning the turf was rated firm and by race time due to thunderstorms it became yielding.  One of the tips from Night School was that Euro horses generally race on soft turf courses.  At that time the Secretariat was about to start and was part of the Sovereign Stables Challenge Contest.  I originally liked Wilcox Inn, but when I saw Ziyard(IRE) being a first time starter with a strong resume overseas, I switched.  The result was a strong race and almost held off Treasure Beach. Paid $8.20 to place!  Carrying that philosophy through the Beverly D and the Million, it was almost too easy.  I did ignore the European Bounce caution, thinking the soft turf would feel like home again.  Stacelita(FR) romps the Beverly D for $5.60 and Cape Blanco(IRE) takes the Million and pays $6.20. Nice paydays for quality race horses. 

For Sunday August 14, 2011, the race today for Weekend Handicap is the JC Mabee(G2) at DelMar.  It is for 3YO + fillies and mares on turf covering 1 1/8 miles.  Field of 8 and of them 6 could claim to be contenders.  This is race is highly contentious and loads of speed. 

Contenders:

1.       #4 Malibu Pier ML 5-1:  I know this might be a surprise to some.  This Malibu Moon 4YO through A.P. Indy just feels right for this race.  She has won at this level going longer, Carla Gaines wins 20% of her stakes races and Brice Blanc has ridden her to 2 of her 3 wins this season.  Her Beyers are not as high as the others but runs consistently in the high 90’s.  She looks to be in top form (strong workout on the 10^th), great pedigree for the turf and intuition says yes today.

2.       #1 Harmonious ML 5-2:  Came in 2^nd after a 4 month layoff and raced her best Beyer of 99.  She has won at the G1 level and Sherriffs wins 33% of his stakes races. Rosario the hot jockey at Del Mar rides her again.  We can expect to see a big effort today on the 2^nd off a layoff.

3.       #5 Wasted Tears ML 5-1: She has won 12 of 20 lifetime, has been a success at all levels of Graded races, won once at this distance and has consistent Beyer’s. She takes off at the start and has the ability to wire it, the only question with all the speed in this race, can she control the pace.  Another plus is when Bert Evans places one of his horses in a stakes race they usually win.  The only downside, and this is a minor point but David Flores is having a wretched Del Mar meet. He has had only 4 wins in 60 mounts.  He is a great jockey and wins a good deal on turf, it’s his first time on Wasted Tears.

Outsiders:  Not going to use dark horses today for these 2 gals having every right to be in the top 3.  #2 Cozie Rosie ML: 7-2 and #7 Celtic Princess  ML3-1:  Both horses are fast, great connections and have won at this level.   The trouble I have is neither have won at this distance, pedigree suggest they can, but with this classy field they could get in trouble.  It wouldn’t surprise if either won, of the two Celtic Princess seems ready to go.

“Bombs Away”:  #8 Medaglia  D’amour ML 12-1:  This 6YO hasn’t raced in a year, last winning the Wilshire (G3) by 1 ¼.  Strong pedigree for this distance, top 90 Beyer’s and Talamo up (wins 21% on Turf).  The angle here is she won her maiden after a 5 month layoff on first time turf.  2 of her 3 wins she stretched her lead coming to the wire. 

In the end, with all this speed, it will be interesting to see which lady is still standing!

Selections:  4-1-5

Have a great day and see you all next weekend! 

Weekend Handicapping: Brigand and Night Tides Best Pals? Only Baffert knows ...

Before we start on Sundays feature race, would like to do a quick recap of the West Virginia Derby (G2).  Prayer for Relief had a beautiful trip and Bejarano placed him perfectly and took control at the right time.  I was impressed with Rush Now, like I said I gave him a long look, he showed a lot going on the lead and never folded trying to hold off Prayer for Relief. Dreamy Kid was a disappointment, not that he finished poorly but he never fired.  The concern was a regression off that big Swaps effort and today it happened.  Awesome Bet, my value play, seemed set nicely by Garcia but when he swung wide he checked up and then it was too late.  He did rush up but Pray for Relief had closed it out by then.

Race for Sunday,  August 7, 2011:  8^th Race at Del Mar, Best Pal Stakes ($150K) for 2YO’s going 6 1/2f on Synthetic.  I was taught a long time ago when handicapping 2YO’s its Pedigree, Trainer and workouts.   The good news is Pletcher is not here, the bad news is Baffert has two entries and Hollendorfer has one.  Pedigrees look solid and all have good workouts and seem fit and ready to go.  There appears to be one solid choice and several upsetter’s, but like all lightly raced 2 YO’s  you just never know.

Contenders:

1.       #7 Brigand (Baffert/G.Gomez):  2 races under his belt and finished 2^nd in the Hollywood Juvenile (G3) to Majestic City.  I watched the video and he looked strong making his move down the rail to take 2^nd from Night Tide, but by then Majestic City was long gone.  His connections paid $925,000 at the OBS 2YO sale, so you can imagine they have big plans for him.  Good Beyer's. Not sure of his pedigree but his G3 performance warrants him to be the favorite.

2.       #2 Creative Cause (Harrington/Bejarano): Broke his maiden in July by 4 1/2 lengths.  His sire is Giant Causeway, who is highly ranked for producing 2YO winners.   He brought $135,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling sale.  Some 2YO handicappers look for a horse that was sold for more than the published stud fee.  Giant Causeway fee is $85,000.  His speed numbers say he can stay with Brigand.  Two good workouts since winning.  Likes to go to the front and fits here, and could wire this field.

3.       #5 Galex (Hollendorfer/Talamo):  Has the same sire as Brigand, Flatter.   He sold at FTK October Yearling sale for $31,000 against stud fee of $7500.  He is shipping in from GG/PLN and last out finished 2^nd in a state bred stakes race.  He has two workouts at Del Mar and both were excellent.  I spotted him for several reasons:  Hollendorfer is one of the top 2YO trainers, consistent speed and a liberal “come and go” angle last out.  First call: 5^th 1 ¼  Second Call: 2^nd 1 ½ Third call: 4^th  4 ½ and finished 2^nd by 2 ¼.   

Dark Horses:  #4 Night Tides (Baffert/Garcia):  Finished 3^rd to Majestic City and Brigand in the Hollywood Park Juvenile (G3).  He set the pace and clipped nice fractions, but when challenged by Brigand and Majestic City, he let them go, didn’t see him dig in nor looked tired. It might have been a bounce from his maiden win, if so, he could surprise.  He is out of an excellent sire, Malibu Moon.   #1 I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Rosario):  This is an intriguing horse, his dam is out of Arch, who is a top 2YO sire.  Doug O’Neill brings his 2YO’s in ready to go, won his maiden with super Beyer’s, working well at Del Mar.  If I had to look for angle with this colt, it’s that Rosario is staying with him.  Rosario had ridden Brigand in the (G3) Juvenile and now passes up riding the favorite, with an almost certain payday for a second time starter.  Maybe something or maybe nothing but it’s interesting.  I didn’t have the ML for this race at the time of this writing, but if the price is right, #1 I’ll Have Another will be my value pick.

“Bombs Away”:  #3 Mighty Monsoon (Bonde/V. Espinoza):  This 2YO is out of Forestry and has 3 races to its resume and shipping in from GG/PLN.  Pedestrian speed figures and Galex finished ahead of him last out.  This is a trainer play, Bonde is known to bring in solid 2 YO’s to Del Mar, a bullet 4f workout and Espinoza is having a nice season.  

Final Selections:  7- 2 - 5 - 1

My blog is at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ and will be participating in the NHC/HorseTourney tomorrow. So everybody good luck and may all your tickets be cashed.