Weekend Handicapping: Hit It Rich in the Orchid at GP Today

I thought we would go in a different direction today, and not look at the Florida Derby.  It's going to be an interesting race no doubt, is Union Rags on track for the Derby? and how good is El Padrino off the Risen Star? But instead of trading punches on that race, there is another race on the card that I think is loaded with contention, and will be exciting.

It's the G3, Orchid for fillies and mares, 4YO and upward. Its a mile and half over the turf course for a $150,000 purse, and a field of nine are going off. What makes this race fascinating is the mix of ladies in it. We have some proven graded winners, ladies that win at the minor stakes level and allowances, and a couple of up an comers. That means while the top ones look strong, there is always that dangerous horse in the bunch that will surprise, especially going a mile and half. So here we go ...

Contenders:

#8 Hit It Rich ML 3/1

It would be easy to put Keertana here and play it safe, but I do think Hit It Rich has the capability of knocking her off. Let's start that she is a graded winner at this distance two back. Her first start here at GP she finishes a close second in a G3 event and post back to back 90 Beyer's.  She is a lightly raced 5YO with only 12 races to her credit and has won 5, so her upside is to be determined. McGaughey is an excellent turf trainer and has a super graded stakes record going 25% in 32 starts.  Her workouts have been spaced nicely and well done.  J J Castellano stays on board and he has won 28% of his turf starts and he will keep her right up there.

#9 Keertana ML5/2 

What can you say? She is a dominant force at this level,  5 G3 wins lifetime, several strong efforts at the G2level  and has won over a $1,000,000.  She is off to a slow start in her 6YO season, looking back you can see she won her first two as a 5YO and 4YO, but she is right there in both of her 2012 races.  Proctor is have a great season at GP and putting Leparoux on board doesn't hurt.  Unless she is losing a step now, she should be there at the end.

#2 Aqsaam ML 4/1

This 4YO Dynaformer filly has three starts all wins, two on turf.  McLaughlin is stepping her up and we would expect the continued improvement in her speed and endurance. Her workouts in March have been nicely spaced and good. She has won going forward and laying back, so versatility is there, and Maragh is on 10 day hot streak winning 11 of 33.  It will be a good test, but McLaughlin is tricky in spots like this.

Dark Horse:

#5 Shimmering Moment ML 6/1

Won her first start in the US at 8/1 here at GP, posting a competitive 87 Beyer.  There is a lot of unknowns here, and that is what makes this 5YO mare dangerous.  I suspect we have not seen her ceiling yet, not sure if Rocco taking over for Lezcano will affect her. I do know Abbott, while runs a small barn, does a good job with turf runners. Her workouts have been consistent so she is ready. She will run up there with Hit It Rich, the question does she have it in her to beat them back?

Bombs Away:

#4 Woodford Belle ML 12/1

This 5YO mare has faced the top two recently and held her own. I watched the Very One (G3) and she got off to a bad start and in the stretch she was moving up strongly and it looked like she might have been pinched off a bit. Regardless, she showed a game effort to nail third. She will be the the second pack runner and will let the speed do it's thing. Her speed fig's have been consistent but today she'll need to take a big step forward to beat these ladies. I like Michelle Nihei horses, she runs a small outfit, but when they show up they are ready to run, and usually get a good value.

Selections:

8 - 9 - 2

Reprise: What Do Poker Players And Sports Bettors Think of Horse Racing?

Knowing what other skill-game customers think about us, might allow us to fix some of our sports problems. Below they tell you what they think about betting horse racing - unedited, and in their own words. 

**** NOTE **** We have seen this HANA Blog article referenced of late, and thought it would be a good idea to run it again, for those who had not originally seen it. It was eye-opening to many.

At various conferences, or in trade papers there is always a discussion about the loss of horse bettors. There are many reasons given by those in the know: lotteries competition, other forms of gambling are more fun, offshore wagering pirating pools, the form is too complicated and it is a very hard game to learn, 25 minutes between races are too much , the lack of "stars", there are not enough people at the track to get introduced to loving our sport and becoming bettors, and so on. Some of them would seem to have some merit.

Many of us believe that a gambling game (i.e. racing) which has a tagline "you can beat a race but you can't beat the races" tells a big part of the story. The price of a wager is too high, and once people found choice, or were not forced to bet racing when it no longer was a monopoly, they left for other games they had a shot to make money on. The numbers bear this out. In 2012, the gambling market (not the underground one) is said to grow to approximately $450B (Canadian Gaming Magazine). Online wagering, as the internet moves the price of a bet lower, is a big part of that growth, with a 42% increase expected in the US between 2008 and 2012. (KPMG pdf). Meanwhile, horse racing wagering has fallen to near $11B in the US.

What do the growing skill games (not slots or lotteries) like hold 'em poker and sports betting have on us? Are they easy, fast and more in tune with today's society? Is it because of pocket cams, or pretty people dealing cards? Is it because they are cool, on TV, and they give some good perks like free drinks when you play them? Is it because of all the things we read about them in our racing trade press?

One poster on a chat board set to find out. He's primarily plays horses, but he frequents other boards where they play poker and sports bet.

He asked the following question to those bettors - sports bettors and poker players - on their very own chat board:

Why don't you bet on horse racing?

Feel free to be as brief or as long as you like and as candid as you want.

Thank you in advance for your time and answers.

Here are their responses, in their own words and unedited:

> When you see a 4-1 and a 7/2 double pay $26.50 do you think horses are worth playing?

> Track takeout is much too high

> 17% is pretty tough to beat.

> I love the "challenge" of (predicting) capping the races. I live near Santa Anita and go to Hollywood Park and Del Mar every year, but the rake is absurd. Trying to make consistent money betting horses is nearly impossible.

> The 21 or now 23% take out

> Takeout. I quit betting horses about 7-8 years ago when I realized how hard it was to beat simply because of the takeout.

> No way would I ever try and do it seriously with that house edge.

> It just seems impossible to beat. I'll throw a few bucks down on the big races sometimes. But, it's just for fun and I don't really expect to win. I'd love to see someone have a great day at the track. Like "Trotter" in the movie "Let it Ride."
But, that seems like great fiction.

> takeout is ridonkulous

> I live in the free part of the world and can use Betfair that has about 5% rake, so no reason not to bet horses.

> Takeout is certainly a factor. We get 11/10 assured on football if one is smart. And I love the horses!!

> Knowing that the takeout is 18ish pretty much took all the interest away.

> Takeout and my lack of ability or confidence that I could do well are the biggest reasons I'd never think about betting it seriously.

> If there was a lot of head to head matchups between horses with a standard 20 cent lines, I might give spend some time on horse racing. But I'm not going to fight that 18% cut.

> too much take out and too many races

> Takeout is #1, absolutely absurd where 15%- >26% is removed. Besides the lottery where is the rake greater, maybe keno but have no idea on that one? Instead of lowering takeout I read where Cali tracks have increased takeout on exotics by 10%+.

> The take out is too low, thus not providing me enough of a challenge.*
* obviously joking

> Since the UIGEA passed I don't have a good rebate out for horse racing. When Pinnacle had their rebate (I think it was 7%) I bet a bit of horse racing. I coincidentally know one of the DRF's handicappers from outside of gambling so I'd probably bet some of his stuff if I had better outs. As far as why I don't handicap horse racing myself, I think there are smaller, easier markets to beat, although if I had a good rebate out and exhausted other opportunities and had time on my hands, I might tackle horses.

> I grew up a horseplayer. Got to the point where I could pretty well break even. Discovered offshore, where a 4.54% cut [sports betting] is considered excessive. Never looked back.....

> Living in Vegas, I haven't gone to a "live" race in 8 years. I used to sit in the casino and lay down a few bucks but I stopped that practice. The reason is the aforementioned take out (hard vig to beat) and in my case, incompetent writers.

> Seems too hard to quantify my edge.

> Take out is the main reason why I have not ever looked in to betting horses. I can safely say I have never made a bet on horses and doubt I will in the future as I have zero knowledge whatsoever of them.

> I'm sure if they cut the house take down dramatically, many of the individuals in this thread and sharp gamblers all over would enter into the horse racing markets.

Non-takeout responses:

> The total disdain towards the betting public by management of these places. They think people will keep coming back no matter how they are treated. The fiasco on Friday Breeders Cup (was it Ladies Classic?) where Pletcher horse ran, absolute joke. There was at least 3 million to win on that horse, who knows how much in exotics, she was favorite or 2nd choice. No refund of anything. I don't follow it closely anymore so not sure what happened post race.

This stuff continually happens, gate malfunctions, horses breaking 5 lengths behind, jockey's giving horses absolutely horrendous rides, short fields, late odds drops 30 seconds after gate opens, late info on geldings/workouts/medication. Stewards decisions not explained by them.

Obvious drug and medication super trainers who amazingly take a broken down claimer and turn it into a stakes horse.

I'll only play Triple Crown, and Breeders Cup (some races) now and that will be offshore only so the greedy bastards don't see a dime of my money. 

> I'm not 75 years old

> If you meant for this to be an academic study, actually I do enjoy going to the race track and try to get there a couple times a year, but I do so with the intention of making $5 exotics for entertainment and have no illusions that I can beat it.

> As someone who knows just the very basics of horses, I shy away because of the idea that it is fixed. Seems to easy for a jock to control an animal to do what they want it to do. Plus, the rewards do not seem to be worth the time. Other than a fun night out with the boys, I have no desire to wager on them at all. Would be a whole different story if I was on the inside or had access to that information.

> No inherent interest in horses. My foray into sports betting stems from my initial interest in sports which later developed into analyzing the betting market to find value. For me, this requires a baseline interest in the betting subject to follow/gauge it over time, which then allows me to anticipate and understand why market participants do what they do.

> I play on the "big days", other than that = it's just too time-consuming to try and fit in. Too many tracks, too many races to try and keep up with.

> Because I grew up playing and watching baseball, basketball and football. I understand those games and they are fun to keep up with. There are all kinds of tv and radio shows covering sports, none covering horse racing.

I did not grow up around a horse track or horses. I don't know anything about them. I wouldn't know where to start capping them. And the races are not nearly as fun to watch as a sports game so it would be really hard to make myself keep up with the sport. Don't the horses change every year too? That is just too much turnover to keep up with.

You have to be too patient. In a horse race you have like 10 horses running. Its like playing long parlays in sports or betting nascar. The wins are few and far between. But the main reason is the first paragraph.

> Politicians treat the customers like retarded degenerates. Therefore some of the customers act like retarded degenerates. There is frequent dishonesty in the 'sport'. Some jocks still insist on punishing the athletes. Unless you have access to big rebates, its a foolish pursuit.

> I used to go to the track quite a bit. There is undeniably a cruelty element with regard to the horses. Horses are run lame to fill cards, drugged to win purses and whipped to win races. I was at the Barbaro Preakness and that was my last live race. The horses are bulked up, trained to the max and the physical elements like bones and tendons can't keep up. There is an occasional ownership element that is exceptionally seedy doing anything to stay in the game even going to the extremes of barn fires to collect insurance. Bryant Gumbel had an HBO special that was quite insightful as to the treatment of less than stellar horses. Absolutely despicable. I loved the sport for a lot of reasons but will never go back.

> I've never really taken it seriously or bet big $ as I learned early that the **** is rigged and with an 18% take the juice is basically unbeatable.

> Ten years ago, I would play two to three days a week. I still love to play the big days, and play when killing time at the sportsbook when we are in Vegas, but I hate beating my head up against a wall, because I normally lose. I really enjoy the handicapping aspect of the sport, but I am just not very good at it. Bob Knight once said "Find out what you are doing wrong and stop doing it." I have taken that approach and stopped playing the ponies, because I rarely would come out a winner.

> I know nothing about it and don't care.

________________________________________________________________________


It looks like the score is about 25 or so for takeout, a couple for corruption/treating animals poorly, a couple for liking other sports better, or too many races/too hard to follow, a few for not being treated well by management.

It reads like our organization's mission statement.

We at HANA believe this should not be a shock to any of us, if we even have a rudimentary understanding of gambling. The fastest growing gambling game this century is fantasy football, and it is purely stats driven, hard to figure out and time consuming - so complexity is not an issue. Poker is a game where you can fold hands for a half an hour or more without playing for a pot - so time between races is not an issue. "Offshore wagering", giving lower takeout, was not all 'pirates stealing customers', it was creating customers we were ignoring. As soon as the UIGEA was passed and it was outlawed, these players went back to sports betting, because they would not play into 22% blended takeout, just like bettors told the industry years ago they would (when they were labeling it a panacea).

73% of HANA members polled in 2009 said takeout was their number one issue. Sports bettors and poker players seem to agree, but it appears in even higher numbers. With them representing a multi-hundred billion dollar market we need and crave, that is not good news, especially since horse racing takeout has been going up, not down.

We clearly have many problems in racing, but to deny that the price of our product is a big one of those problems, is denying reality.

Note: Comments lie on original post here.

So Did You Watch HBO's Luck?

If you did Dan over at Thorotrends has a neat survey he'd like you to take. If you are a HANA member (or even if not) please give it a whirl. Dan's a social scientist who helped HANA with our survey and charged us the grand price of $0.

You can take the survey here. It only takes a few minutes. Please consider helping out a nice fellow and a friend to horseplayers.

Weekend Handicapping: Castaway in The Sunland

Yesterday in the Spiral, Went the Day Well (I apologize for botching his name yesterday) got the perfect set up when Heavy Breathing and Ill Conceived took off and set a quick pace.  Velasquez put him just off that pace, and made a nice move and dug in tough.  Those are the races that are truly exciting to watch. My choice, Handsome Mike, had a rough go of it. I said the 12 hole would be tough. It wasn't only tough but it looked like in the beginning he was a pin ball. Regardless, he showed his grit by rallying for fourth.

Today we go to the next big Derby hopeful race, the 10th running of the Sunland Derby(G3) at Sunland Park.  The race is for $800,000 going a mile and an eighth for 3YO, and a field of 8 is entered. There were no scratches at this writing.

Contenders:

#1 Castaway ML 2/1

He is the obvious choice here and has every right to claim it. Won his last trip in the Southwest (G3) easily posting a 92 Beyer. Each race he is improving and looks to be getting better, and Baffert has got him tuned up and ready. Is he unbeatable? No. No 3YO is unbeatable but it will take a big effort from the next two to get it done.

#6  Daddy Nose Best ML 3/1

He is the other G3 winner, winning the El Camino at Golden Gate.  He matched Castaway's recent Beyer, the big difference he made a big jump.  The question is was that a fluke or has he really improved?  I like to think with the stretch out and off turf he improved. He has had three nice workouts indicating the last one didn't blow him out. Lastly, Asmussen is dangerous in these situations, and his racing style suits this bunch.

#4 Isn't He Clever ML 4/1

Even though he is the local hero, you can't overlook a 3YO with four wins in six starts.  His only drubbing came in a G2 event at Santa Anita, and that wasn't horrible. His breeding is solid, shows he can run with the top two, and today he gets Contreras, a big plus.  Henry Dominquez is a top trainer at Sunland, and wouldn't be surprised to see the #4 upset them all.

Dark Horse:

#2 Ender Knievel ML 6/1

This will be his second effort since Pletcher took over, where he won his maiden at GP easily. His breeding shows no problem going this distance, Beyer's look consistent to this group, and has been working well. JohnnyV stays on, and is looking for two in a row after the Spiral yesterday.  The big question mark? Is he ready to take on a more experienced bunch?

Bombs Away:

#3 Stirred Up ML 8/1

The second entry for Bob Baffert and is coming back off his maiden win at Santa Anita.  He has shown steady improvement in each race as the distances have gotten longer,winning at a mile and sixteenth. His Beyer's are super consistent and seems to run well with Garcia in the irons.  This another one where we find out just how good he is. Baffert might have him in here for a prep, but with his running style, a closer, you just never know what will happen.  There is enough pace in this race, for the doors to open. Now if we can 10/1 or better!

Selections:

1 - 6 - 4

I blog over at my site Monday through Friday with a pick of the day.
http://the-clocker.blogspot.com

Weekend Handicapping: Handsome Mike in the Spiral at Turfway Today

Today we get another Derby contender race. There aren't many more opportunities for 3YO to get into the big one. I believe I read connections will need about $250,000 to make the eligible list, this race at Turfway Park will do that for the winner.  We will take a look at the Sprial (G3) going a mile and an eighth for a purse of $500,000, again for 3YO. A big field 12 are going, and as of this writing no scratches.

Contenders:

#12 Handsome Mike ML 4/1

He won't be the favorite and not even sure he will be second in line, but I like this Doug O'Neill trained colt.   It would appear that his best results have been on turf, winning his maiden and then a place finish in a G3. O'Neill took over at the end of his 2YO campaign and it looks like he is finding his footing. His Beyer's are consistent (86 - 88 - 87) and he has held his own against some tough 3YO, Secret Circle and Liaison.  You have to like that Rosario is now on board, and with O'Neill that has been a 22% win record. If he runs anywhere near those Beyer's today, he should hold off this group.  The only downside is the post, he likes to race up close, and it might be tough to get there early.

#7 Ill Conceived ML 8/1

This will our horse for course selection. I liked him in the Battaglia and he ran a strong place finish with a 83 Beyer.  I know many discount him because he races a mid level tracks, but he is a tough knocker, and in these races they can find a way to win.  The added distance will help, his running style fits the group, and Elliott now has one under his belt with him. He could make it interesting.

#3 Heavy Breathing ML 3/1

It wouldn't be a Derby hopeful race without a Pletcher entry. He is the morning line favorite and will probably go off as the favorite when the gates open.  He has has two impressive wins at GP, and is making the normal progression for a Pletcher horse.  Back to back 79's are solid and would expect an improvement today on his third start. Distance is no issue and likes to go forward. The key is how does he handle some of the more experienced 3YO's today? It will be a good test for him, and he certainly has the ability to win it.

Dark Horse:

#4 Went the Day ML 4/1

This will be his first outing since winning his maiden at GP.  This is more of a trainer angle than anything else.  When Graham Motion drops a horse in a Graded race off a maiden win, the intentions are not a prep race.  He has shown he has the speed to run this distance and they are bringing him right back of that win.  Velazquez is on board which is a plus, even though JohnnyV has been a bit off of late, maybe a change in scenery will be good.  Not calling him a dangerous one, but if he stays off the pace a bit he might get his chance.

#11 Stealcase ML 10/1

Here is the dangerous 3YO. Took him a few tries before breaking his maiden, then Mark Casse drops him in the Gotham(G3) and runs into Hansen, and didn't break cleanly.  The connections must be encouraged because he is right back running again. Blinkers on which is a fun angle, Casse has an excellent record these situations, and he changes up and puts Maragh on board.  It would not surprise me to see him in the hunt at the end.

Bombs Away:

#10 Mr. Prankster ML 12/1

I'm a big Michael Maker fan, and to get one of his entries at 12/1 makes your mouth water. Here is another horse for course opportunity, he has won two of three over the TP synthetic. Has shown flashes of speed to compete at this level, and looks like he bounces well off those off tough races. Maker hits 28% on Synthetic and the kicker is he puts on red hot Rosie Napravnik. She'll lay him in the weeds and if the big guns beat each other up, he will be there for all the marbles.

Selections:

12 - 7 - 3  

You Want Another Horse Racing Puff Piece? Don't Read This

It's nice to see some passion in racing, and it's nice to see someone not worry too much about ruffling feathers in our sport. It doesn't happen very often.

Today, though, it did.

Superterrific said the piece "brings it"

Goatzapper.com called it "Howard Sternish"

Caroline said "Spot on"

To read the Wireplayers Blog article called "Time to Get a Clue" please click here.

A New Way of Looking at the Derby Field?

Graded Earnings as a way to make the Derby is part of the sport, however, several race watchers and fans - like Mike Watchmaker - wants something new. "Indulto" penned his thoughts in a two part series at HorseRace Insider recently, and expounds on that here.

A Comparison of Current and Proposed Derby 2012 Eligibility Rankings

Total earnings in Graded Stakes versus cumulative points assigned to

finishes at various grade levels in the same races.

By Indulto

In a point system (PtBC) used by the Breeders' Cup, the place and show points

at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

PtBC	W	P	S
G1	10	6	4
G2	6	4	2
G3	4	2	1

In a point system (PtTR) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” blog, finishing

2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

PtTR	W	P	S
G1	10	8	6
G2	7	5	3
G3	4	2	1

Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YO and 3YO

through this past weekend are reflected in the chart below. The top 24

earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified horses are distributed

across the following 4 sections:

1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 9 would not qualify on points.

2) The next 9 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.

3) The top 10 earnings-qualified females of which 3 would not qualify on points.

4) The next 3 earnings-ranked females who would qualify on points.

----	Top 20 KY Derby Elig.	plus  4	A.E.	thru	03/	18/	2012	----
Earn	Horse	Earning	PtBC	PtTR	#GS	PtBC	PtTR	PtTR
Rank	Name	Total	Tot	Top	WPS	Rank	Tot	Rank
1	Hansen	1400000	16	10	3	8	16	10
3	Union Rags	1070000	28	10	4	2	32	2
5	Creative Cause	686000	34	10	6	1	41	1
6	Sabercat	601429	4	4	1	76*	4	78
8	Wrote(IRE)	556630	10	10	1	16	10	25
10	Secret Circle	470000	12	7	3	14	13	17
11	Dullahan	405000	12	10	2	12	13	14
12	Liaison	393000	10	10	1	17	10	26
13	Prospective	365452	8	7	2	28*	9	31
14	Drill	300000	22	10	3	5	25	5
19	Excaper	240736	6	8	1	32*	8	32
20	Algorithms	240000	4	4	1	78*	4	80
22	Basmati	220000	2	2	1	125*	2	125
23	El Padrino	200000	8	7	2	29*	10	29
25	Optimizer	181375	12	6	3	15	16	11
26	Alpha	180000	10	8	2	21	12	19
27	Trinniberg	174500	10	8	2	23	13	16
28	Majestic City	170000	14	8	3	10	18	7
29	Rousing Sermon	170000	8	8	2	27*	11	23
31	Finale	153345	----	----	----	----	----	----
32	I'll Have Another	151000	10	7	2	24	12	20
33	Castaway	150000	4	4	1	80*	4	82
34	Currency Swap	150000	10	10	1	18	10	27
36	Daddy Nose Best	145558	4	4	1	81*	4	83
44	Brother Francis	120000	6	6	2	46*	8	37
45	O'Prado Again	120000	6	7	1	40*	7	41
53	Jack's in the Deck	105000	8	7	2	30*	10	30
54	Gemologist	103855	6	7	1	41*	7	42
59	Vexor	91000	6	7	1	45*	7	46
61	Overdriven	90000	6	7	1	42*	7	43
62	State of Play	90000	6	7	1	43*	7	44
63	Thunder Moccasin	90000	6	7	1	44*	7	45
85	Power World	61354	6	5	2	47*	7	48
2	My Miss Aurelia(f)	1350000	26	10	3	3	27	3
4	Stephanie's Kitten(f)	800446	16	10	2	7	17	9
7	Grace Hall(f)	560000	20	10	3	6	23	6
9	Weemissfrankie(f)	522120	24	10	3	4	26	4
15	Now I Know(f)	300000	4	4	1	77*	4	79
16	On Fire Baby(f)	286729	16	7	3	9	18	8
17	Killer Graces(f)	266200	12	10	2	11	12	18
18	Yara(f)	260000	6	7	1	37*	7	38
21	Stopshoppingmaria(f)	240000	10	8	2	20	13	15
24	Self Preservation(f)	183040	6	8	1	36*	8	36
35	Eden's Moon(f)	150000	10	10	1	19	10	28
37	Reneesgotzip(f)	140000	12	8	2	13	15	12
50	Charm the Maker(f)	116400	10	8	2	22	14	13

Note that a) Horses that would not currently qualify on points are indicated by an

asterisk following their rank, and b) Canadian G3 winner, Finale, was not ranked

due to its absence from the schedule/results data base at thoroughbredreport.com.

Further information about the chart, its data sources, and the motivation for this

analysis may be found at:

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/The-HRI-Readers-Blog/02292012-the-kentucky-derby-grading-the-road-ahead

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/The-HRI-Readers-Blog/the-kentucky-derby-grading-the-road-ahead-part-2