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Monday, March 19, 2012

A New Way of Looking at the Derby Field?

Graded Earnings as a way to make the Derby is part of the sport, however, several race watchers and fans - like Mike Watchmaker - wants something new. "Indulto" penned his thoughts in a two part series at HorseRace Insider recently, and expounds on that here.

A Comparison of Current and Proposed Derby 2012 Eligibility Rankings

Total earnings in Graded Stakes versus cumulative points assigned to
finishes at various grade levels in the same races.

By Indulto


In a point system (PtBC) used by the Breeders' Cup, the place and show points
at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

PtBC
W
P
S
G1
10
6
4
G2
6
4
2
G3
4
2
1

In a point system (PtTR) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” blog, finishing
2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

PtTR
W
P
S
G1
10
8
6
G2
7
5
3
G3
4
2
1

Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YO and 3YO
through this past weekend are reflected in the chart below. The top 24
earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified horses are distributed
across the following 4 sections:
1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 9 would not qualify on points.
2) The next 9 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.
3) The top 10 earnings-qualified females of which 3 would not qualify on points.
4) The next 3 earnings-ranked females who would qualify on points.

----
Top 20 KY Derby Elig.
plus  4
A.E.
thru
03/
18/
2012
----
Earn
         Horse
Earning
PtBC
PtTR
#GS
PtBC
PtTR
PtTR
Rank
         Name
Total
Tot
Top
WPS
Rank
Tot
Rank









  1
Hansen
1400000
 16
 10
  3
 8
 16
 10
  3
Union Rags
1070000
 28
 10
  4
 2
 32
  2
  5
Creative Cause
686000
 34
 10
  6
 1
 41
  1
  6
Sabercat
601429
  4
  4
  1
76*
  4
 78
  8
Wrote(IRE)
556630
 10
 10
  1
16
 10
 25
 10
Secret Circle
470000
 12
  7
  3
14
 13
 17
 11
Dullahan
405000
 12
 10
  2
12
 13
 14
 12
Liaison
393000
 10
 10
  1
17
 10
 26
 13
Prospective
365452
  8
  7
  2
28*
  9
 31
 14
Drill
300000
 22
 10
  3
 5
 25
  5
 19
Excaper
240736
  6
  8
  1
32*
  8
 32
 20
Algorithms
240000
  4
  4
  1
78*
  4
 80
 22
Basmati
220000
  2
  2
  1
125*
  2
125
 23
El Padrino
200000
  8
  7
  2
29*
 10
 29
 25
Optimizer
181375
 12
  6
  3
15
 16
 11
 26
Alpha
180000
 10
  8
  2
21
 12
 19
 27
Trinniberg
174500
 10
  8
  2
23
 13
 16
 28
Majestic City
170000
 14
  8
  3
10
 18
  7
 29
Rousing Sermon
170000
  8
  8
  2
27*
 11
 23
 31
Finale
153345
----
----
----
----
----
----
 32
I'll Have Another
151000
 10
  7
  2
24
 12
 20
 33
Castaway
150000
  4
  4
  1
80*
  4
 82
 34
Currency Swap
150000
 10
 10
  1
18
 10
 27
 36
Daddy Nose Best
145558
  4
  4
  1
81*
  4
 83









 44
Brother Francis
120000
  6
  6
  2
46*
  8
 37
 45
O'Prado Again
120000
  6
  7
  1
40*
  7
 41
 53
Jack's in the Deck
105000
  8
  7
  2
30*
 10
 30
 54
Gemologist
103855
  6
  7
  1
41*
  7
 42
 59
Vexor
 91000
  6
  7
  1
45*
  7
 46
 61
Overdriven
 90000
  6
  7
  1
42*
  7
 43
 62
State of Play
 90000
  6
  7
  1
43*
  7
 44
 63
Thunder Moccasin
 90000
  6
  7
  1
44*
  7
 45
 85
Power World
 61354
  6
  5
  2
47*
  7
 48









  2
My Miss Aurelia(f)
1350000
 26
 10
  3
 3
 27
  3
  4
Stephanie's Kitten(f)
800446
 16
 10
  2
 7
 17
  9
  7
Grace Hall(f)
560000
 20
 10
  3
 6
 23
  6
  9
Weemissfrankie(f)
522120
 24
 10
  3
 4
 26
  4
 15
Now I Know(f)
300000
  4
  4
  1
77*
  4
 79
 16
On Fire Baby(f)
286729
 16
  7
  3
 9
 18
  8
 17
Killer Graces(f)
266200
 12
 10
  2
11
 12
 18
 18
Yara(f)
260000
  6
  7
  1
37*
  7
 38
 21
Stopshoppingmaria(f)
240000
 10
  8
  2
20
 13
 15
 24
Self Preservation(f)
183040
  6
  8
  1
36*
  8
 36









 35
Eden's Moon(f)
150000
 10
 10
  1
19
 10
 28
 37
Reneesgotzip(f)
140000
 12
  8
  2
13
 15
 12
 50
Charm the Maker(f)
116400
 10
  8
  2
22
 14
 13

Note that a) Horses that would not currently qualify on points are indicated by an
asterisk following their rank, and b) Canadian G3 winner, Finale, was not ranked
due to its absence from the schedule/results data base at thoroughbredreport.com.

Further information about the chart, its data sources, and the motivation for this
analysis may be found at:


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