Craig Milkowski is the head figure maker for
TimeformUS, the recently released past performance product partnered with TVG
and Betfair. Craig has a long history in
the space through his published figures at Pacefigures.com and we thought we’d
sit down and ask him about the fine art and science of figure making, and
handicapping in general.
Q:
How long have you been making figures and would you describe it a continual
work in progress, i.e. you are always learning something new, or are you
completely comfortable in where you are at as a figure maker?
A: I’ve been making figures since the early 80s,
so about 30 years. For better or worse,
I’m always trying to learn something new.
I am comfortable with the figures I make, but I always think they can
evolve into something better.
Q:
Your performance figures and pace figures at Pacefigures.com always had a great
reputation for predictive value and ROI. Are the TimeformUS figures similar to
your previously published performance figures, or have you changed them in any
way?
A: I think they are actually better. I now have a team to work with and the
capability to study the figures, both strengths and weaknesses. We will build on the strengths and work on
the weaknesses.
see a horse who beat another horse have a lower
TimeformUS figure than the runner up in the same race?
A: Our figures are still largely based on final
time, but we use what we like to call
“pace infusion”. We like to show how the
pace part of the trip might have influenced final time. A frontrunner dueling through a fast pace
will get some extra credit, while one on the lead in a slow paced route will
not, and perhaps even get a slight penalty.
Another example is that closers on turf can get some extra credit in
turf routes when the pace is slow--as long as they are actually passing
horses. All of the infusion is based on
surface, distance, and the pace of the race in relation to final time.
Q:
For past users of your program, your pace figures were published, and were
quite good at deciphering a pace scenario and race contentiousness. Are there
plans to publish those pace figures at Timeform? Does the “Pace Projector”
currently reflect these pace figures?
A: The pace figures for both the races and each
horse will be available in the Deluxe version of the past performances, which
are coming soon. The TimeformUS Pace
Projector reflects a rating from the old program, the overall early speed rating. It looks at the last five races each horse
has run, both the speed they displayed and the position they held, and
formulates one number. The adjusted
fractions that are available in the regular PPs also show the speed each horse
displayed.
Q:
How do you create your “Spotlight Figures?”
A: Spotlight Figs are based on the Speed Figures
and look for the race in each horse’s last three that most closely matches
today’s surface/distance combination.
Q:
Come the Breeders Cup, should we see many European invaders, one may think
there may be an edge for players because the TimeformUS figs should match up
with the Timeform UK figures, being made on the same scale.
Through your data mining and due diligence with
both, are
you comfortable with the US versus European
Timeform figures in terms of head to head match ups?
A: I am very comfortable using the figures of
European invaders in comparison to ours.
We’ve seen plenty of examples on a smaller scale already. Timeform is very protective of their brand,
and they are comfortable with the numbers.
Their numbers are made using different methods, but we think they
accomplish the same goal--measuring race performance accurately--and they can
be used for comparison.
Q: Clearly a good speed figure has great
predictive value, with an ROI boost when compared to betting a favorite or a
top final time at today’s distance and surface. However, as with anything we do
as handicappers, there is more to the story – we need to find ROI. Can you take
us through your selection process while using a top TimeformUS Fig, and how you
may try to up your ROI on a top figure selection?
A: I personally am not a “bet the top fig” kind
of guy. I am more of a pattern guy,
looking for horses improving and declining in form. When I make figures, I don’t concentrate on
gearing them towards just a healthy ROI.
I could probably approach break even or better if that was the goal, but
the win percentage would decline at the same time. The goal of our figures is to tell the
handicapper how fast a horse ran each time he stepped on the track, and for the
handicapper to use that information to find good bets.
There are lots more tools available to our
customers than just the figures. There
are some innovative trainer and breeding ratings, lifetime PPs, and so much
more. I bet I haven't even found everything myself!
Q:
A great many handicappers and fans have lamented the lack of true talent at a
distance nowadays. In your experience have horses gotten slower at 9 furlongs
or more the last decade? Have there been any major changes in speed that you’ve
seen in talent levels as foal crops get smaller, or as (is rumored) track
superintendents try and make a safer surface, which might involve slowing the
horses down? As well, with so few races on a given day at 9 furlongs or more,
how tough is it to be confident of your final figure in those races in the
first place? Easier or harder than years ago?
longer races, the horses are actually getting
slower at longer distances in my opinion.
Q:
Varying runup distances/times and less than stellar timing in general have been
a concern for HANA and its members for a long while. How do you feel about the
current state of timing in Thoroughbred racing and what can be done to improve
it, in your opinion?
A: The mistiming of races is a lot more
prevalent than people realize. Timing is
better at some tracks than others. There
are also plenty of times where the timer works, but the data is entered
improperly into the system and winds up incorrect in the PPs. There are two things racing should do that
would eliminate nearly all timing errors.
The first one is to move to Trakus type timing systems. The technology in use today is woefully out
of date and prone to errors. The second
thing is to just get rid of run up. It
is a terrible idea in racing, one that no other place I’m aware of is
using There is no reason not to give
the exact distance of a race and the time it takes to run from gate to wire. I
could write a 10 page report on the pitfalls of run up, so I’ll stop now. Look for something on our blog in the future.
Q:
What does the future hold at TimeformUS? Are you working on anything you can
share?
A: One thing I can promise is TimeformUS will
not become complacent. We are embracing
modern technology and using it to our advantage. As mentioned earlier, full pace figures are
coming soon, as are additions to comments on days when front runners either
dominated or struggled. We aren’t going
to get into declaring biases, but the info will be there for people wanting to
dig deeper. There is a lot more to come,
but I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves.
Q:
Not forgetting your loyal customer base at Pacefigures, especially since many
of them are HANA members, what kind of feedback have you gotten from them now
that you are at TimeformUS? Do you find they are comfortable with the switch
and have they been supportive?
A: All of my customers have been very
supportive of the move. That said, there
are some reservations and some things people are used to having that they don’t
have now. Many have been involved as
beta testers for some time and had some input before launch. We do listen to ALL customer feedback while
at the same time keeping our goals in mind…making playing the races modernized,
faster, and more fun.
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