Yesterday was one of those days in racing where everything fell into place. Gio Ponti had a
wonderful run in the Shadwell(G1) along with my pick Get Stormy (finishing
second) and then later that evening hitting a small Pick 4 at Balmoral for $127
on a $24 ticket. If you had played the
Trifecta on the Shadwell with my top three and Gio Ponti it would have paid
$192 on a $48 ticket. A good day all
around! Today the stakes calendar is
light and the only big race scheduled is the The Juddmonte Spinster Grade 1 for
filles and mares, 3YO and upward going a 1 1/8 over the synthetic track at
Keeneland.
This will be the race that reminds us how humbling
handicapping can be. It is wide open, I
mean throw a dart and you will have a great chance. I will admit, I don’t like seeing a bunch of
turf horses moving to a dirt/synthetic track for the first time. There is no form, you don’t know how well
they will do and generally brings chaos to the handicapping. It also means tons of value, so if you want a
price and can find an angle it’s a big payoff.
For this race I’m going to do it differently, three
contenders and my Bombs Away pick. Honestly they are all dark horses here, I
could argue a case for all but one or two to win it. We have a packed field of 11 to choose from
so good luck!
Contenders:
#7 Embur’s Song ML
5/1
I’m going with speed all the way. She has the early foot and she is two for two
at Keenleand. Three Grade 3 wins to her
credit and breeding says she can do nine furlongs. Pletcher dumps Husbands
after that strange ride in the Seaway and puts Castanon on board. Six of nine on the synthetic and she looks like she is ready to get back to
the winners circle.
#10 Theysken’s Theory ML 6/1
Had this 3YO filly in her debut in the Garden City where she
finished second almost catching Winter Memories. Her first outing on the turf at Keeneland was
a disaster so want to give her a second chance.
She is the only turf horse in this field I will take the chance on synthetic
for the first time. While McGaughey doesn’t have a good turf to
synthetic record, just have a gut feeling she will bounce back and be there at
the end.
#12 Pachattack ML 5/1
The only reason I have her here is because she has the
highest Beyer’s on synthetic (103), has won at this distance and longer, can
race forwardly. Now here is what I don’t
like, has never won in the USA when her weight goes over 120, today she carries
124. I’m not sure the pace of this race
suits her, but you have to respect her most recent effort in the Personal
Ensign (G2).
Bombs Away:
#4 Sugar Again ML 12/1
This lightly raced 4YO has won five of nine starts, she is
two for four on synthetic (at Woodbine). While her last race was on turf in the
Paris Opera ($80K) there is something about this filly that says she might be
ready for that big race. I like the fact
that Solis is on board and Sheppard has a good record with surface switching. She
posted a bullet workout at Keeneland over 5f.
If Solis takes her forward and rates her just off the pace, she could
take it all. She has a solid closing kick
into the deep stretch.
Selections:
7 – 10 – 12
I will be posting on my blog http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/ the selections for the Guaranteed $25,000
Pick 4 at Balmoral tonight.
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