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Sunday, October 30, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Will it be a Party at Belmont or just Crazy?

Due to horrible weather in New York the Bold Ruler Handicap was postponed to November 7th at Aquaduct.  If the weather holds today at Belmont we will look at the 8th race, The Smilin Sera.  It is for 2YO fillies going a mile on turf for a purse of $60,000.  Hopefully we get this race on the grass otherwise it becomes a one horse race with the MTO entry of #9 Disposablepleasure.  So let’s look at this race as if we get a normal day at Belmont.  There are 8 entries and several fillies here look real good.

Contenders:

#3 Crazy Party ML 4/1

One of Todd Pletcher entries and has flashed one of the strongest Beyer’s at 72 going longer in distance.  This will be her third start and she gets off the rail for the first time.  She has had a nice string of 4f workouts, not bullets but consistent and Nakatani takes over the reins.  She will lay off the front running Take It Inside and has all the ability to run her down and win this one.

#7 Royal Bonnie ML 3/1

Showed well in the G3 Ms Grillo earlier in the month finishing second (DQ’d to 4th).  She shows excellent Beyer’s (70-73) and improving.  Weaver has this filly right and ready and Velasquez is on board.  The only reason I don’t have her first is that Weaver has a horrible stakes record (2% in 93 starts).

#5 Wholelottashakin ML 6/1

She broke her maiden at second asking when moving from dirt to turf and her Beyer’s reflected that change going from a 61 to a 71. I like the way she runs and the added distance will play to her speed.  Bush is consistent with whatever is handed to him and pulls Solis for this one over Castellano.  If that last effort was any indication of her potential she could blow right past the first two.  The winner of her first race came back to win a $75K stakes race.  Have a good feeling about this filly.

Dark Horse:

#4 St Pancras ML 3/1

The second half of Todd Pletcher entries.  Last out at Woodbine was an ugly effort but it looked like she got hung out against some tough girls.  Several of those horses have come back to win big races or finish in the top three.  You could play her as a “key race” angle and wouldn’t be surprised to see her win.  In her winning maiden race she posted a 72 Beyer which makes her competitive with this bunch.  Workouts look pedestrian but Pletcher might be hiding her from us.  Not sure if the value will be there but definitely in a Trifecta wager.

Bombs Away:

#1 Bourbonstreetgirl ML 5/1

Her last outing in the G3 Ms Grillo was a rocky ride.  Place third by DQ, but she had nothing but problems in the race.  Her speed figures don’t really measure up to the top three but 2YO’s can perk up and surprise.  Her numbers are close enough to consider that she has the ability to get up into the 70’s.  What is interesting is Contessa puts Dominguez back on.  He was her maiden winning jockey back in August at the Spa.  One last thing, she had a solid effort in a $75K stakes race going wide.  She is the dangerous one. 

Selections:

3 - 7 - 5 

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