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Sunday, October 23, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: The Dowager looks very British today

What a nice way to return to the Weekend Handicapping with a “Bombs Away” winner in Great Hot, yesterday at Keeneland.  Today’s race at Keeneland, unfortunately is a bit more muddied, and is one of those turf races that anyone could perk up and win.  We are going to look at the Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes race for a purse of $125,000 going a mile and a half over the turf course.  It is for fillies and mares 3YO and upward and a field of 12 have signed up.  As if this writing, there are no scratches.

Contenders:

#1 Cheeta(GB) ML 3/1

I’m going to throw out her effort in the Beverly D due to surface conditions and she was over her head classwise.  The winner and runner up in that race came back to win, so you have a major key race angle here.  She has won at the G3 level and exhibits solid 90 Beyer’s on turf.   It’s hard to ignore a Clement/Gomez hook up , and she has shown to win coming off layoffs. 

#10 Upperline ML 6/1

I could have easily put this 4YO filly in the dark horse category but I like her chances in this group.  She ran a credible race in the G1 Beverly D, flashing a 92 Beyer and like Cheetah has won at the G3 level, albeit on dirt.  What I like about her is that she post high Beyers regardless of surface or where she finishes, good workouts and Stidham has a nice Graded Stakes record hitting 22% of the time.  Total gut play here.

#5 Hasay(GB) ML 6/1

She will be making her fourth start as a 4YO and show herself to be a good one so for.   We all know Graham Motion turf horses are tough and he wins 21% of the time.  Her speed figures have been improving with each race (79-80-88), and she is a recent winner taking the $76K in the Omnibus at Monmouth.  Hard not to like this filly that has hit the board in 8 of her 11 starts.

Dark Horse:

#11 Askbut I Won’ttell ML 5/1

Some would have her in the top three and I would have a hard time arguing against it.  She is a solid turf horse coming off a win at Arlington in a $100k Optional Claiming event.  As a 4YO she won two G3, one of the Cardinal at Churchill Downs.  Her speed is not far off the top two and has the ability to fire big time. I do like the fact that Chris Block is handing the reins to Leparoux.

Bombs Away:

#8 Endless Expanse(Ire) ML 8/1

This 4YO is a mystery horse for sure.  She  won 3 of 10 and shown credible efforts since coming to the States.  She is coming off a layoff and might return to those early high Beyer’s.  I’m always suspicious when Clement drops one in class and off a 90 day layoff. 

Selections:

1 - 10 - 5

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