Weekend Handicapping: The Dowager looks very British today

What a nice way to return to the Weekend Handicapping with a “Bombs Away” winner in Great Hot, yesterday at Keeneland.  Today’s race at Keeneland, unfortunately is a bit more muddied, and is one of those turf races that anyone could perk up and win.  We are going to look at the Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes race for a purse of $125,000 going a mile and a half over the turf course.  It is for fillies and mares 3YO and upward and a field of 12 have signed up.  As if this writing, there are no scratches.

Contenders:

#1 Cheeta(GB) ML 3/1

I’m going to throw out her effort in the Beverly D due to surface conditions and she was over her head classwise.  The winner and runner up in that race came back to win, so you have a major key race angle here.  She has won at the G3 level and exhibits solid 90 Beyer’s on turf.   It’s hard to ignore a Clement/Gomez hook up , and she has shown to win coming off layoffs. 

#10 Upperline ML 6/1

I could have easily put this 4YO filly in the dark horse category but I like her chances in this group.  She ran a credible race in the G1 Beverly D, flashing a 92 Beyer and like Cheetah has won at the G3 level, albeit on dirt.  What I like about her is that she post high Beyers regardless of surface or where she finishes, good workouts and Stidham has a nice Graded Stakes record hitting 22% of the time.  Total gut play here.

#5 Hasay(GB) ML 6/1

She will be making her fourth start as a 4YO and show herself to be a good one so for.   We all know Graham Motion turf horses are tough and he wins 21% of the time.  Her speed figures have been improving with each race (79-80-88), and she is a recent winner taking the $76K in the Omnibus at Monmouth.  Hard not to like this filly that has hit the board in 8 of her 11 starts.

Dark Horse:

#11 Askbut I Won’ttell ML 5/1

Some would have her in the top three and I would have a hard time arguing against it.  She is a solid turf horse coming off a win at Arlington in a $100k Optional Claiming event.  As a 4YO she won two G3, one of the Cardinal at Churchill Downs.  Her speed is not far off the top two and has the ability to fire big time. I do like the fact that Chris Block is handing the reins to Leparoux.

Bombs Away:

#8 Endless Expanse(Ire) ML 8/1

This 4YO is a mystery horse for sure.  She  won 3 of 10 and shown credible efforts since coming to the States.  She is coming off a layoff and might return to those early high Beyer’s.  I’m always suspicious when Clement drops one in class and off a 90 day layoff. 

Selections:

1 - 10 - 5

Weekend Handicapping: Will the Doll hold off the Hot Summer or is it all a Mizdirection at Keeneland?

This Saturday’s Weekend Handicapping we will go to Keeneland and will look at the 13^th running of The Lexus Raven Run (G2) , going 7 furlongs for 3YO fillies.  There is a field 13 and as of this writing there are no scratches.  At first pass, this is a contentious race, based on there is no dominant filly in the group.  Several have done well then faded a bit which is not unusual with lightly raced 3YO’s.  There is no clear cut front end speed, which makes it difficult because you don’t know if one will wake up and wire the race.  In the end, there should be no surprises if a longshot pops in and we see a nice payoff.  In fact, I think it will be interesting to see who goes off the favorite.  So let’s take a look:

Contenders:

#2  Groupie Doll ML 5/1

Right off the bat, she is a lightly raced 3YO that reeled off three straight wins after her dismal debut.  She has speed to run with this group and her last out coming 4 wide she almost caught Strike the Moon.  In reading the form notes, it appears several horses she has competed with in the past have gone to win.  A couple of mentions are in her last outing, the 9^th place finisher took a $250,000 stakes race and the 10^th   finisher in that same race won a $176,000 stakes last weekend.  Lastly, she is one of the few to win a Graded race, the Gardenia (G3) at Ellis back in August.

#12 Mizdirection ML 4/1

I have always liked this Puype trained filly.  Had selected her to win the San Clemente, where she finished second to Up In Time.  She has shown herself to be solid on turf and now tries synthetic, were Puype’s record is mediocre (turf to synthetic).  What does make her attractive is that she likes to go forward, has decent speed and Garrett Gomez is up.

#3 Hot Summer ML 5/1

Some might be surprised not to see Strike the Moon or Roman Treasure sitting here.  They will be the dark horses in this race.  When I look at this filly, I see a young horse that is on the verge of coming together.  Her speed has been fairly consistent of late, she won a G3 at Saratoga and she is getting a weight break now.  When I look at her last race, it looks to me like she was brought back quickly and might have been tired from that tough race at the Spa.  I like Fawkes Graded Stakes record and Velasquez is back riding her.  If she can put it together she can win this race.

Dark Horses:

#7 Roman Treasure ML 6/1

She has flashed the best Beyer’s of this group, the problem is which one do we get today. She has shown solid bullets at Keeneland, big jockey switch from Dominquez to Leparoux.  If she can stay out of trouble and go to the front she might take all the marbles.

#11 Strike the Moon ML 6/1

Hard to ignore her last outing, a good win in a $400,000 stakes race holding off Groupie Doll.  Her works have been good and has shown flashes of good speed.  She has a history of being a bouncer, and based on her last race of 92 she should be ready for a bounce today.  One other thing that makes me shy away from her is the Trombetta is 0 for 23 in Graded Stakes races this season.  She might make me look bad today, but like others more.

Bombs Away:

#4 Great Hot(Brz) ML 6/1

This filly has posted back to back 91’s and showed herself well in her last outing a G1 at Santa Anita, finishing third to Zazu and Ultra Blend.  She has won 3 of 6 and this season has been ITM 4 of 5. She has proven herself to be tough down the stretch and if Chantal can keep her close, she has the ability to clear this field.   

Selections:

2 – 12 – 3 

Weekend Handicapping: A wide open Spinster at Keeneland today

Yesterday was one of those days in racing where everything fell into place.  Gio Ponti had a wonderful run in the Shadwell(G1) along with my pick Get Stormy (finishing second) and then later that evening hitting a small Pick 4 at Balmoral for $127 on a $24 ticket.  If you had played the Trifecta on the Shadwell with my top three and Gio Ponti it would have paid $192 on a $48 ticket.  A good day all around!  Today the stakes calendar is light and the only big race scheduled is the The Juddmonte Spinster Grade 1 for filles and mares, 3YO and upward going a 1 1/8 over the synthetic track at Keeneland. 

This will be the race that reminds us how humbling handicapping can be.  It is wide open, I mean throw a dart and you will have a great chance.  I will admit, I don’t like seeing a bunch of turf horses moving to a dirt/synthetic track for the first time.  There is no form, you don’t know how well they will do and generally brings chaos to the handicapping.  It also means tons of value, so if you want a price and can find an angle it’s a big payoff.

For this race I’m going to do it differently, three contenders and my Bombs Away pick. Honestly they are all dark horses here, I could argue a case for all but one or two to win it.  We have a packed field of 11 to choose from so good luck!

Contenders:

#7  Embur’s Song ML 5/1

I’m going with speed all the way.  She has the early foot and she is two for two at Keenleand.  Three Grade 3 wins to her credit and breeding says she can do nine furlongs. Pletcher dumps Husbands after that strange ride in the Seaway and puts Castanon on board.  Six of nine on the synthetic  and she looks like she is ready to get back to the winners circle.

#10 Theysken’s Theory ML 6/1

Had this 3YO filly in her debut in the Garden City where she finished second almost catching Winter Memories.  Her first outing on the turf at Keeneland was a disaster so want to give her a second chance.  She is the only turf horse in this field I will take the chance on synthetic for the first time. While McGaughey doesn’t have a good turf to synthetic record, just have a gut feeling she will bounce back and be there at the end.

#12 Pachattack ML 5/1

The only reason I have her here is because she has the highest Beyer’s on synthetic (103), has won at this distance and longer, can race forwardly.  Now here is what I don’t like, has never won in the USA when her weight goes over 120, today she carries 124.  I’m not sure the pace of this race suits her, but you have to respect her most recent effort in the Personal Ensign (G2). 

Bombs Away:

#4 Sugar Again ML 12/1

This lightly raced 4YO has won five of nine starts, she is two for four on synthetic (at Woodbine). While her last race was on turf in the Paris Opera ($80K) there is something about this filly that says she might be ready for that big race.  I like the fact that Solis is on board and Sheppard has a good record with surface switching. She posted a bullet workout at Keeneland over 5f.  If Solis takes her forward and rates her just off the pace, she could take it all.  She has a solid closing kick into the deep stretch.

Selections:

 7 – 10 – 12

I will be posting on my blog http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/  the selections for the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral tonight.