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Saturday, December 17, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Will She's Adorable be Blushing today?

Two weeks into December and we have been on quite a roll here at Weekend Handicapping.  Last weekend saw our top pick hit the wire on Saturday and then Sunday, our “Bombs Away” selection gave us our fist longshot winner of the year.  For this weekend I thought we would venture over to the Fairgrounds and try 
our hand at a turf race going a mile and sixteenth.  It’s the 4th running of the Blushing K. D. Handicap, having a purse of $75,000 for fillies and mares 3YO and upwards.  There is a field of nine and some interesting gals in this one, so here we go …

Contenders:

#5  She’s Adorable ML 6/1

I might be getting a bit full of myself but I like this 5YO chances here.  I’m going to toss out here last two long races and look at her success at a mile and today’s distance.  If you look back she wins at a mile and won the Rooney Memorial at Delaware at 1 1/16, she also post strong Beyer’s at these distances.  She has won 2 of 3 turf races here at the Fair Grounds in her day, and Graham is back on, which is a good sign.  I think Michael Stidman has Weekend Party in here to be the rabbit for her and she has the ability to take this group.

#1  Ravi’s Song ML 5/2

Her last three turf races resulted in three place finishes.  She is a closer and that always gives me concern.  She has shown herself well in those three G3 races and her Beyer’s put her at the top. I do have an issue that they have going in the wrong direction (94-93-90), making me wonder of her form cycle.  There is no doubt if Carl Bowman has her ready and she can pick her way through this crowd she will make a run for it, just not sure she will.

#2  Cherokee Queen ML 7/2

This 6YO is one dangerous mare.  Won the G3, Sewanee River at GP back in February with an eye popping 97. Picked off another minor stakes race at Calder, then went quiet.  After three rough outings her owners moved her to Steve Margolis, who does well with first time starters when he takes over.  Bridgmohan takes over and that connection wins 23% of the time.  If she can bounce back under her new connections, she will nail this field.

Dark Horse:

Well there are plenty to choose from in this race but I settled on the # 6 Pleasantly Blessed ML 5/1.
The key’s for this 7YO is she is having a good season winning 3 of 6, trained by the crafty and always dangerous, Steve Asmussen. She has also won twice here on the turf, and with Napravnik on board makes her even more dangerous.  I think her chances are stronger if she races more mid pack than in the back with Ravi’s Song.  Not sure she has the speed to reel them in if she lays too far off the pace. 

“Bombs Away”

#8  Miss Shananiegans ML 15/1

Greg Boarman has this 6YO clicking this season winning 3 of 6!  Here speed figures don’t match the contenders but are moving in the right direction (68 -71- 73 -77).   The form cycle suggest that she might still maturing and can make that big leap in this one.  Boarman doesn’t run a big stable but his charges win and he keeps Butler in the irons.  Toss in a big weight drop and this mare could just be finding her ceiling.

Selections:

5 – 1 – 2

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