Two major variables that go into the churn rate, as the article alludes are:
- Takeout rate - the higher the takeout, the lower the churn
- Cashable bets - WPS pools, with no exotics would have high churn because we'd have many winners rebetting, a card with pick 6's and nothing else would have almost zero churn, because we have one or two winners, who probably go home to celebrate after they win.
Today, at a churn rate of four, that handle in our example has plummeted to $400,000.
In macro-terms, with a $10B annual handle in the US, that means there is about $2.5 billion in players wallets to bet racing. If racing was at the historical churn factor of seven, annual handle would not be $10 billion, but $17.5 billion.
High takeout, fingers in the pie from everywhere wanting more of the $2.5B, and the proliferation of hard to hit bets with wall to wall racing have killed player bankrolls to the point where the average person can only roll their bankroll over four times, and that's a problem for everyone.