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Sunday, November 13, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Shesgonnablow? at Mountaineer tonight.

The stakes schedule is light today across the tracks, so I thought we would do something different for Weekend Handicapping.  I went to Brisnet and let their site pick the race of the day.  They came up with a race at Mountaineer. It’s the 6th race going 6f for 3YO maiden fillies for a purse of $17,600.  There are 7 entries, 2 first time starters.

Like yesterday, I will skip the dark horses, for other than the three contenders and the Bombs Away the rest will be dark horses.  I have always found maiden races to be tough, add first time starters and I would normally pass on it.  In this race, the easy pick is the #6, Afleet Lexi at 6/5 morning line.

I won’t argue that she doesn’t deserve the honor of being favored. Beyer of 70, top jockey, Parker on board and the trainer, Gorder has excellent stats with this kind.  The problem is there is no value so we have to find the ones that can beat her.   And taking a one look at all of these fillies and we can see no matter who is favored they are vulnerable.

Contenders:

#1 Shesgonnablow  ML 4/1

She is the daughter to Explosive Miss who has had 5 starters and 3 have won.  Her trainer, Caramori hits 32% with maiden special weights and 21% on debuts.  Pereira is on board and he has been winning at 17%, second to Parker.  Over the last 18 races of this type, the rail has been winning at 17% of the time.  I know this is all stat based, since she hasn’t run, but if she has any front end speed she will win this race.  Right now at Mountaineer, front runners have won 41% (486 races) and 61% over the last week.

#5 Eowyn’s Time ML 6/1

She is making her third start and moving from the maiden claiming ranks.  Her last outing was a near miss, giving way at the wire to finish 2nd.  In that race she went to the front and her speed really bumped up.  It would appear she likes to be out there and with Rivera taking over the reins I would expect her to be out there again and may go wire to wire.

#4 Bored to Death ML 7/2

She posted a 70 Beyer two back at a mile.  This is her second try at 6 panels and if she gets back to the front she might wire this field.  Her connections have done well this season, and in her four tries she has been on the board in each of them. 

Bombs Away:

#7 Speed Limit Ninety ML 10/1

This will be her 13th try to break her maiden.  Most would say she is destined to be a career maiden and maybe so.  She is the pure speed in this race and the bias says it’s her race.  Her Beyer’s are near the top with this group, and in her last one she lost it at the wire.   She gets Houghton today, and that should be an improvement, she shows she can handle the pace.  Now we have to see if she has the heart to win.

Selections:

1 – 5 – 4

Will be blogging the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

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