Weekend Handicapping: Shesgonnablow? at Mountaineer tonight.

The stakes schedule is light today across the tracks, so I thought we would do something different for Weekend Handicapping.  I went to Brisnet and let their site pick the race of the day.  They came up with a race at Mountaineer. It’s the 6^th race going 6f for 3YO maiden fillies for a purse of $17,600.  There are 7 entries, 2 first time starters.

Like yesterday, I will skip the dark horses, for other than the three contenders and the Bombs Away the rest will be dark horses.  I have always found maiden races to be tough, add first time starters and I would normally pass on it.  In this race, the easy pick is the #6, Afleet Lexi at 6/5 morning line.

I won’t argue that she doesn’t deserve the honor of being favored. Beyer of 70, top jockey, Parker on board and the trainer, Gorder has excellent stats with this kind.  The problem is there is no value so we have to find the ones that can beat her.   And taking a one look at all of these fillies and we can see no matter who is favored they are vulnerable.

Contenders:

#1 Shesgonnablow  ML 4/1

She is the daughter to Explosive Miss who has had 5 starters and 3 have won.  Her trainer, Caramori hits 32% with maiden special weights and 21% on debuts.  Pereira is on board and he has been winning at 17%, second to Parker.  Over the last 18 races of this type, the rail has been winning at 17% of the time.  I know this is all stat based, since she hasn’t run, but if she has any front end speed she will win this race.  Right now at Mountaineer, front runners have won 41% (486 races) and 61% over the last week.

#5 Eowyn’s Time ML 6/1

She is making her third start and moving from the maiden claiming ranks.  Her last outing was a near miss, giving way at the wire to finish 2^nd.  In that race she went to the front and her speed really bumped up.  It would appear she likes to be out there and with Rivera taking over the reins I would expect her to be out there again and may go wire to wire.

#4 Bored to Death ML 7/2

She posted a 70 Beyer two back at a mile.  This is her second try at 6 panels and if she gets back to the front she might wire this field.  Her connections have done well this season, and in her four tries she has been on the board in each of them. 

Bombs Away:

#7 Speed Limit Ninety ML 10/1

This will be her 13^th try to break her maiden.  Most would say she is destined to be a career maiden and maybe so.  She is the pure speed in this race and the bias says it’s her race.  Her Beyer’s are near the top with this group, and in her last one she lost it at the wire.   She gets Houghton today, and that should be an improvement, she shows she can handle the pace.  Now we have to see if she has the heart to win.

Selections:

1 – 5 – 4

Will be blogging the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

Weekend Handicapping: Awesome Dreams and Prayers at the West Virginia Derby

Before I do my introductions, I would like to thank the Board of Director’s for giving me the opportunity to handicap races for the membership over the coming weekends.  It is a great honor.  To the folks that don’t know me, I go by the moniker, the-Clocker.  I reside in Chicago, have been around horseracing since a small boy and participate on the NHC tour.  I also blog at http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/  you’re welcome to visit and share thoughts and ideas on handicapping.   I’m always open to new techniques/angles and anything to become better at the craft.

The race of the day for Saturday, August 6, 2011:  West Virginia Derby (G2), purse of $750,000 for 3YO’s going 1 1/8 mile over a dirt oval.  I know the first reaction is why not the Whitney? Or any other of the G1’s for Saturday?  What excited me about this race was the concept of having 10 top trainers/jockeys at a neutral track vying for a huge purse.  Just look at the line up and you will see what I mean.  It is also a group of unheralded 3YO colts, so it give us a chance to see some interesting horses in a wide open event and that means value.  Value = large mutual

What I will do is review 3 contenders; highlight some dark horses and then the “Bombs Away” choice.  So here we go!

1.      #8  Dreamy Kid (Drysdale/Talamo) ML 7-2:  He fits the conditions and class.  The only G2 winner, winning the Swaps (beating Coil at this distance) at Hollywood Park. This should give him the class edge. Has won 2 of 4 this season and the work out pattern suggest he is ready to go.  The only concern is form regression, which he has shown in the past, but he may have out grown that based on his last two outings.  Would be nice to get him at 7-2 but who are we kidding?  He will be beaten down to 3-2 at least.

2.      #1   Prayer for Relief (Baffert/Bejarano) ML 5-2:  Off to a great 3YO campaign going 2 for 2 and winning the Iowa Derby (G3).  What’s not to like?  Baffert is running hot right now, Bejarano wins 23% on Baffert mounts, and the colt has won two in a row and strong work patterns.  We could quibble about being a front runner over a 1 1/8^th, can his form cycle sustain itself and how good was the Iowa Derby?  If I had to choose one concern it would be running style,  if he goes to the front does he have enough in the tank to hold the rest back? Could be the favorite based on the Baffert aura right now.

3.      #4 Awesome Bet (Asmussen/Alan Garcia) ML 6-1:  This was tough, there are three other horses I could argue fit here, and did look long and hard at Rush Now.  The keys for me is that he is coming off a good win in the Barbaro (100K @Del), beating Rush Now and Meistersinger (who won recently by 10 lengths in an allowance race against older horses). Strong speed numbers off of Equibase data, and Asmussen seems to sneak in and steal these types of races.  This will be my value play at 6-1 or higher.   

Dark Horses:  #5 Rush Now(Dutrow/C.Velasquez), #3 Little Drama (Fawkes/Carmouche) and #2 Infrattini (McGee/C.Borel) .  Each has a claim to win it, and would lean closer to Little Drama based on 2 fine showings in G2 races (Swale @GP 3^rd) and (Hutcheson @GP 3^rd).   After that good luck.  The more I looked the more it got muddy.

“Bombs Away” Play:  #10 Fred High (Tullock/Parker) ML 30-1 and it will go higher:  When you look at the PP’s, don’t shake your head.  This choice is pure gimmick.  Going to base it on the connections.  Tim is a WVA trainer, and has won 22 stakes races.  Deshawn Parker rides at Mountaineer and wins at a 24% clip, 53% ITM (side note he is one of the leading jockey’s in wins nationally).  If you look at the track layout, it’s not a perfect oval. That first turn is tighter than the other one, and going to figure Parker knows how to keep his colt out of trouble and might surprise them all.  One final note on this colt, 7 races and 6 ITM, he knows how to find the board.  In your exotics for sure.

Final Ratings:  #8 - #1 - #4 - #3    

Good luck and see you tomorrow!

Weekend Handicapping will be a weekly feature here at HANA Blog. If you'd like to contribute like John has please send us an email at info@hanaweb.org.