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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Will the Garden City(G1) be filled with Winter Memories?

Last week we finally scored a double.  Grassy came home a winner in the Bowling Green and at Hastings we had Northern Causeway getting off at 3/1 and winning.   So this weekend we will start at Belmont Park again and handicap the Garden City (G1) for 3YO fillies going a mile and an eighth over the inner turf.  We have another tough group of gal’s, with three coming out of the Lake Placid, an import and some improving fillies.  With little early speed in this race, and most are strong off the pace, you have to believe an outsider can score today a big ticket. 

Contenders:

#3 Hungry Island ML 3/1

She will be the second favorite in this race, even though she had a smashing victory in the Lake Placid(G2).  Her Beyer’s have been steadily improving each race; she has won four in a row and looks poised to do it again.  This will be her second race off a layoff, the last time was back on May 11 here at Belmont and she came back and won.  I can’t find anything in her form that would suggest she not repeat today.

#4 Winter Memories ML 8/5

This will be her redemption race after the disappointing fourth in the Lake Placid(G2).  Many have blamed Lezcano for her poor showing, but after looking at the race it appeared to me she just didn’t fire.  Today she gets Castellano, two nice workouts and should bounce back and be tough.  With little speed here she might go forward and nail it.  With three wins in her four outings you can’t ignore her not to be closer this time.

#7 Theysken’s Theory ML 4/1

Her only appearance in the States was as a 2YO in the BC Juvenile where she took off and gradually faded into sixth.  As a 3YO she has fared much better winning two of three at the stakes level and has one G3 win to her name.  Imports have done very well on their first time out, especially ones coming in from England and France.  She has Gomez in the irons and that makes her even more appealing.  I don’t think the added distance will be a problem, in fact, may even set her up to surprise.

Dark Horses:

#1 More Than Real ML 8/1

This lightly raced 3YO has all the makings to go right by all of them. She made a good account of herself in the Lake George after being bumped and then going four wide.  She has been working well and Pletcher is still hot.  I’m not worried about the layoff, she has won coming off the bench as a 2YO in November at the Breeders Cup.  If Nakatani keeps her out of trouble she could win it.

#6 Kathmanblu ML 8/1

I’m lukewarm on her in this race.  She did show a strong effort in the Lake Placid(G2) but overall she is inconsistent after getting off to a good 3YO season.  Maybe the switch to Lezcano will be the tonic for her, but not feeling it with this one.

“Bombs Away”

#8 Pinch Pie ML 10/1

I had this filly in the Desert Vixen at Monmouth and while she placed a distant third in the Alabama(G1) to two dominant fillies on dirt.   She is back on turf where she won two in a row and Dutrow has won 34% when working with Rose.   This is one of those horses that is improving and not sure where her ceiling will be, but would not be at all surprised to see her win or be real close at the wire.

Later today will be posting the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park at  http://the-clocker.blogspot.com/

1 comment:

HANA Reports said...

I like Pinch Pie a lot at great odds in this one.