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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Weekend Handicapping: Heading North for the BC Derby at Hastings

Yesterday turned out to be a good day.  Grassy won the Bowling Green at Belmont and paid a decent $5.60 to win.   Later that night we played the Pick 4 at Balmoral Park, and while missing it, had three winners in those four races, the big one being Sporty Gypsy winning and paying $63.00!   So feeling our oats on this Sunday, I decided to go north again and handicap the BC Derby(G3) at Hastings, going a mile and one eighth over the dirt for 3YO’s.  There is a field of 12 and what makes this race tough is none have won a Graded race and several shippers swooping in.  So let’s take a look …

Contenders:

#9  Northern Causeway ML  7/2

He has won two in a row since returning to the dirt surface.  Nice improving Beyer’s (89-85-83), excellent workouts and a trainer that knows how to win.  He is the front end speed in this race and if he gets loose can wire this field.  His breeding suggests the added furlong will be no trouble, and looks ready to make it three in a row.

#3  Hurricane Lake  ML 9/2

After a spotty 2YO campaign, he has won three of eight and ITM six times.  He was recently claimed by Mike Mitchell at DelMar.  This is strictly a connections play; Mitchell has excellent results with recent claims, sprint to route and 2nd off layoff.  Add in Garcia and that pairing has a 29% win record.  His recent Beyer’s are in the 80’s, and if he can get off cleanly could upset this field.

#2  Inhisglory ML 10/1

Here is another speed horse and will go out with Northern Causeway.  I’m going to toss out the lame effort in the Canadian Derby and focus on three straight stakes wins.  Beyer’s have been consistent and has won twice here at Hastings.  He should bounce back and have a big effort.

Dark Horses:

#12 Northern Indy ML 8/1

He is the only one that has shown a good placing in a G3 race, a second in the Canadian Derby last out.  Beyer’s are moving up and today he could break into the 80’s.  He has won only twice in eleven tries and is one of those horses that you have to wonder is he improving or has he found his top?  Not sure but can’t ignore him.  He will sit a bit back from the #’s 9 and 2 and could pounce if the pace is a scorcher.

#8 Line Change ML 10/1

He got off to a hot 3YO campaign, winning 5 of 8 on the eastern seaboard including his first stakes race at Delaware Park in the Floor Show ($75K).  His Beyer’s showed him to be a bit of a bouncer but still raced well and won.  Then his owners switched him off Gary Capuano and headed into Canada where his last two efforts have been dismal.  Now again, his owners have switched trainers and this time he is under John Morrison who is one of the better dirt trainers.  Looking for a big improvement and expect to see him looming near the front.

“Bomb’s Away”

#5 Jebrica ML 6/1

I know a 6/1 isn’t much of a longshot and some would have him as a dark horse in this race.  I agree he is dangerous having just won at this distance in the Emerald Derby ($65K) at Emerald Downs.  In  that race he posted a 100 Beyer,  far higher than anything in his past.  His connections have strong ROI’s but not sure if a bounce is coming regardless of his last 5f bullet work.  If I’m wrong then this lightly raced 3YO has all the makings to win.  He is versatile to run up close or rate off, and switches to Baze, who is one of the all time winning riders.  Watch the odds and if he slips off the tote board grab him.

Selections:

9 – 3 – 2

Will be posting the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral later today at

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