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Sunday, February 12, 2012

Weekend Handicapping: Fast Fillies in the Madcap at GP today

The Donn turned out to be an exciting race yesterday.  Hymn Book, one of our dark horses; nailed Mission Impazible at the wire after having to race wide and getting bumped.  It was a solid performance by the 6YO, and Redeemed, the Bombs Away choice, had a good showing as well, finishing third.  On the other side of the coin, it was a disappointment for the connections of Ruler On Ice, Shackleford and Flat Out.  None of them showed much, and you’ve got start wondering if there better days are now behind them.

Today is another quiet day on the stakes calendar, but there is an interesting turf sprint at Gulfstream for 3YO fillies.  It’s the 1st running of the Madcap Escapade for $60,000, going 5 furlongs over the grass.  We’ve got an interesting field of seven and should be a fun race with good prices.  What makes this one tough is we have several first time grass starters and the others have had limited exposure, so it’s wide open.  Here we go …

Contenders:

#3  Alydarla ML 4/1

I’ve got to believe she will go off the favorite seeing how she has won two in a row with improving Beyer’s.  Her last race was on turf and overhauled Sabrina’s Dance (the #1 today) here at GP.  It’s hard to argue against her, with a  recent win on grass at Gulfstream and the top Beyer grass figure.  This will be her first stakes race, but it looks like her connections are moving her through the levels carefully.

#7  My Due Process ML 5/2

She broke her maiden back at Saratoga over the turf at 5 ½ furlongs, since then they have been running her on dirt where she won the NATC  Futurity ($122,000) at Monmouth.  Granted it was muddy track, but she handled the field easily, also the place horse has come back to win.  She has shown she has the speed to go with the #3, and you have to be wary of Dale Romans entries in these situations.

#1  Sabrina’s Dance ML 7/2

She got nosed out in her last to Alydarla, but has shown she likes the grass, posting a 75 and a 77 Beyer.  Nick Canani makes an interesting jockey switch to Lezcano from Castellano.  There is a lot of pace in this race, and I think if she rates off she will have a chance today.

Dark Horse:

#4 Matching Skies ML 6/1

On her first try on grass, she wins and breaks her maiden, here at Gulfstream.  It was a tough race and Mark Casse is bringing her right back and into a stakes race.  That by itself is interesting  he is skipping the conventional allowance ladder.  It makes me think he sees something in her.  She catches a weight break today too; Maragh stays on board and could be finding her stride.  Anything at these odds makes her an interesting play.

Bombs Away:

#  Red Hot Doll ML 6/1

This will be her first start on turf, and normally would shy away from these types.  However, it is hard to ignore her three wins, two in stakes company, albeit minor races, but winners nonetheless.   Has the breeding in her blood for grass and shows speed.  Workouts have been good and Castellano takes over.   She likes to go to the front, and if the grass suites her she might go wire to wire.

Selections:

3 – 7 – 1  

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